How does MIRI Know it Has a Medium Probability of Success?

by peter_hurford1 min read1st Aug 2013146 comments


Machine Intelligence Research Institute (MIRI)
Personal Blog

In the past, people like Eliezer Yudkowsky (see 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5) have argued that MIRI has a medium probability of success.  What is this probability estimate based on and how is success defined?

I've read standard MIRI literature (like "Evidence and Import" and "Five Theses"), but I may have missed something.


(Meta: I don't think this deserves a discussion thread, but I posted this on the open thread and no-one responded, and I think it's important enough to merit a response.)