I'm going to test just how much the people here are committed to paying a Counterfactual Mugger, by playing Omega.
I'm going to roll a die. If it doesn't come up 5 or 6, I'm going to ask Eliezer Yudkowsky to reply to this article with the comment "I am a poopy head." If I roll a 5 or 6, I'm going to donate $20 to SIAI if I predict that Eliezer Yudkowsky will post the above comment.
Because Eliezer has indicated that he would pay up when counterfactually mugged, I do predict that, if I roll a 5 or 6, he'll respond.
Darn it! It's a 5. Well, I'm a man of my word, so...
Um, let's try that again. (At least I've proven my honesty!)
Okay, this time it's a 1.
So, Eliezer, will you post a comment admitting that you're a poopy head?