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Calibration — LessWrong
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Calibration
Edited by
Multicore
last updated
2nd Apr 2025
You are viewing revision 1.0.0, last edited by
Multicore
Do the events that you give a 70% probability in advance, actually end up happening 70% of the time?
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Posts tagged
Calibration
Most Relevant
12
76
List of Probability Calibration Exercises
Isaac King
4y
12
6
29
Information Charts
Rafael Harth
5y
6
5
14
Anki with Uncertainty: Turn any flashcard deck into a calibration training tool
Sage Future
3y
2
4
149
Use Normal Predictions
Jan Christian Refsgaard
4y
67
4
125
The Sin of Underconfidence
Eliezer Yudkowsky
17y
187
4
104
Calibrate your self-assessments
Scott Alexander
14y
122
4
36
Concrete benefits of making predictions
Jonny Spicer
,
Sage Future
1y
5
3
24
I didn't think I'd take the time to build this calibration training game, but with websim it took roughly 30 seconds, so here it is!
mako yass
2y
2
3
12
Calibration Trivia
Screwtape
4y
9
2
145
The Bayesian Tyrant
abramdemski
5y
21
2
99
Giving calibrated time estimates can have social costs
Alex_Altair
4y
16
2
97
Paper: Teaching GPT3 to express uncertainty in words
Ω
Owain_Evans
4y
Ω
7
2
95
Introducing Pastcasting: A tool for forecasting practice
Sage Future
4y
10
2
74
Qualitatively Confused
Eliezer Yudkowsky
18y
86
2
64
Procrastination Drill
silentbob
7mo
9