Alex Irpan: "My AI Timelines Have Sped Up"

by Vaniver1 min read19th Aug 202020 comments

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AI TimelinesUpdated Beliefs (examples of)Machine LearningAI
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Blog post by Alex Irpan. The basic summary:

In 2015, I made the following forecasts about when AGI could happen.

  • 10% chance by 2045
  • 50% chance by 2050
  • 90% chance by 2070

Now that it’s 2020, I’m updating my forecast to:

  • 10% chance by 2035
  • 50% chance by 2045
  • 90% chance by 2070

The main underlying shifts: more focus on improvements in tools, compute, and unsupervised learning.