Is Molecular Nanotechnology "Scientific"?

Prerequisite / Read this first:  Scientific Evidence, Legal Evidence, Rational Evidence

Consider the statement "It is physically possible to construct diamondoid nanomachines which repair biological cells."  Some people will tell you that molecular nanotechnology is "pseudoscience" because it has not been verified by experiment - no one has ever seen a nanofactory, so how can believing in their possibility be scientific?

Drexler, I think, would reply that his extrapolations of diamondoid nanomachines are based on standard physics, which is to say, scientific generalizations. Therefore, if you say that nanomachines cannot work, you must be inventing new physics.  Or to put it more sharply:  If you say that a simulation of a molecular gear is inaccurate, if you claim that atoms thus configured would behave differently from depicted, then either you know a flaw in the simulation algorithm or you're inventing your own laws of physics.

My own sympathies, I confess, are with Drexler.  And not just because you could apply the same argument of "I've never seen it, therefore it can't happen" to my own field of Artificial Intelligence.

What about the Wright Brothers' attempt to build a non-biological heavier-than-air powered flying machine?  Was that "pseudoscience"?  No one had ever seen one before.  Wasn't "all flying machines crash" a generalization true over all previous observations?  Wouldn't it be scientific to extend this generalization to predict future experiments?

"Flying machines crash" is a qualitative, imprecise, verbal, surface-level generalization.  If you have a quantitative theory of aerodynamics which can calculate precisely how previous flying machines crashed, that same theory of aerodynamics would predict the Wright Flyer will fly (and how high, at what speed).  Deep quantitative generalizations take strict precedence over verbal surface generalizations.  Only deep laws possess the absolute universality and stability of physics.  Perhaps there are no new quarks under the Sun, but on higher levels of organization, new things happen all the time.

"No one has ever seen a non-biological nanomachine" is a verbalish surface-level generalization, which can hardly overrule the precise physical models used to simulate a molecular gear.

And yet... I still would not say that "It's possible to construct a nanofactory" is a scientific belief. This belief will not become scientific until someone actually constructs a nanofactory.  Just because something is the best extrapolation from present generalizations, doesn't make it true.  We have not done an atom-by-atom calculation for the synthesis and behavior of an entire nanofactory; the argument for nanofactories is based on qualitative, abstract reasoning.  Such reasoning, even from the best available current theories, sometimes goes wrong.  Not always, but sometimes.

The argument for "it's possible to construct a nanofactory" is based on the protected belief pool of science. But it does not, itself, meet the special strong standards required to ceremonially add a belief to the protected belief pool.

Yet if, on a whim, you decide to make a strong positive assertion that nanomachines are impossible, you are being irrational.  You are even being "unscientific".  An ungrounded whimsical assertion that tomorrow the Sun will not rise is "unscientific", because you have needlessly contradicted the best extrapolation from current scientific knowledge.

In the nanotechnology debate, we see once again the severe folly of thinking that everything which is not science is pseudoscience - as if Nature is prohibited from containing any truths except those already verified by surface observations of scientific experiments.  It is a fallacy of the excluded middle.

Of course you could try to criticize the feasibility of diamondoid nanotechnology from within the known laws of physics.  That could be argued.  It wouldn't have the just plain silly quality of "Nanotech is pseudoscience because no one's ever seen a nanotech."  Drexler used qualitative, abstract reasoning from known science; perhaps his argument has a hidden flaw according to known science.

For now, "diamondoid nanosystems are possible" is merely a best guess.  It is merely based on qualitative, abstract, approximate, potentially fallible reasoning from beliefs already in the protected belief pool of science.  Such a guess is not reliable enough itself to be added to the protected belief pool.  It is merely rational.

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"Is Tom McCabe asserting that I have NOT done what is claimed in some part of my CV, or published something which is, in fact, a matter of record?"

If you want something specific, a quick check of your website shows a picture of you (on your personal homepage!) holding two Hugo awards to your head. A quick Google reveals that you have never won the Hugo; this is dishonest at best.

Compare four situations: 1) Space flight in 1950, 2) Heavier than air flight in 1900, 3) Heavier than air flight in 1200, 4) Drexler nanotech today. Since the science was lacking - no one had ever built the relevant technology, we have to approach the question indirectly. The best questions to ask are:

A) Does something like X already exist? For 2) and 3) yes (birds flying using mechanical force), for 4) yes (enzymes doing similar roles). For 1), no.

B) If something like X exists, do we understand it? For 2), yes, for 4), partially, for the other, not at all.

C) Do current technologies exist that can approach X without new conceptual ideas? 1) yes, (rockets), 2) yes (lifting surfaces and models of gliders), 3) no, 4) probably (larger scale nano and medical manipulations of enzymes, proteins and retro-viruses).

So I'd put Drexler's nanotechnology in with flight in 1900 - the signs are that something like what he describes (certainly not exactly as he describes) will be coming in the forseable future.

(Unfortunately, I'd put AI down with flight in 1200 - intelligence exists, but we don't understand it to any real extent, and current technologies are not approaching proper intelligence; they need new conceptual ideas)

(Unfortunately, I'd put AI down with flight in 1200 - intelligence exists, but we don't understand it to any real extent, and current technologies are not approaching proper intelligence; they need new conceptual ideas)

Interesting. Do you still agree with Stuart_2007 on this?

Less. My personal opinion hasn't changed much, but I know other people disagree, so my total opinion has moved quite a bit.

Again, I'm looking for examples. I have heard many criticisms of nanotech - specific, science-based criticisms. You can't be talking about those. But I'm not aware of others. Google was no help. (That wasn't my only search term BTW, the other ones I tried also failed, that particular search term simply makes the point.)

What I want to guard against is tarring valid criticisms of nanotech and nanotech advocates by associating them with a made-up, straw man attack.

Here's an example of what we have to deal with.

From Google:

Your search - "nanotech is pseudoscience" - did not match any documents.

Again, I'm looking for examples. I have heard many criticisms of nanotech - specific, science-based criticisms. You can't be talking about those. But I'm not aware of others. Google was no help. (That wasn't my only search term BTW, the other ones I tried also failed, that particular search term simply makes the point.)

What I want to guard against is tarring valid criticisms of nanotech and nanotech advocates by associating them with a made-up, straw man attack.

Existing molecular nanomachines (proteins) tend to be extremely unreliable. They work, but only on average. Someone recently issued a challenge to prove that Quantum computers are thermodynamically impossible So I'm wondering if anyone has done serious work with statistical mechanics, trying to figure out if the kind of nanotechnology so enthusiastically proposed in "engines of creation" runs afoul of more subtle laws around reversibility or thermal noise.

This example seems further support for my suggestion that talking about whether something is "scientific" mostly obscures the key issues.

I would point out that molecular dynamics simulations are known to be inaccurate, and that by choosing the atomic force fields you can get essentially any result you want. For most materials simulations, these parameters are tuned to some experimentally realized system. It is not obvious to me that such tuning is being done in the case of these molecular gear assemblies, and even less obvious to me what would constitute an appropriate system to tune towards.

I forget who this commonly used quote is taken from, but I find it useful when discussing potential future technologies with people. "If a celebrated scientist says something is possible he [unfortunately the quote does use only 'he'] is almost certainly right. If he says something is impossible, he is almost certainly wrong."

I, as a lowly college student, would hesitate to call almost anything impossible. Speaking with the benefit of reading lots of dead smart people saying how impossible things that are trivial to us now are, I feel comfortable saying that future technology will likely surprise a lot of us. How surprised we'll be, however, depends on how much we underestimate ourselves and how much we constrain our imaginations.

The quote is Clarke's first law:

When a distinguished but elderly scientist states that something is possible, he is almost certainly right. When he states that something is impossible, he is very probably wrong.

What is the relationship between saying that doing something is impossible and that understanding something is impossible?

Is saying that understanding something is impossible simply thinking that mysteriousness is a property of objective rather than subjective reality? In this case, it would be infinitely worse than simply saying that doing something is impossible, as it is a type error.

At the same time, the two seem related as they both may involve mistaking the limits of imagination for the limit of possibility.

Perhaps claims that understanding is impossible are sometimes from the first, more fundamental mistake, and sometimes from the latter. Alternatively, perhaps in practice all such claims draw from both errors.

Moderator You are not only unfair but insane! I am not some Aliases for JVP! Look at my web page, I am actually well known for my work with Unix.

Or see my resume and photos! http://www.dnull.com/~sokol

Or just google John L. Sokol

You see me in my video with Arthur Clarke http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-OEQryeDuh0

Or my Slashdot profile. http://slashdot.org/~John+Sokol/

Or on Google groups http://groups.google.com/groups/search?q=john+L.+Sokol

Or just ask the closest real hacker you know who I am. You can even try Captain Crunch (John Draper) Then you can please put my post back up. Or your web site might start experiencing some real problems.

Dear Eliezer Yudowsky:

OK, I will ask my friends at All Souls because this boggles the mind. I am not an alias for Jonathan Vos Post. I'm his coauthor, and incidentally his second cousin, although I'm not sure what bearing my familial relationship has to do with this discussion other than sharing the entire family's knowledge that he can be irritatingly argumentative at times. But I am not a JVP clone or alias. John Sokol is not a JVP clone or alias. Why don't you write to John Nash, who has spent time with both of us and will clearly tell you that we are different people. In addition, I promise not to bother you with further posts on this idiots' forum, although I will be pleased to post a note about you to a few colleagues on some actual scientific fora. Your behavior leaves me shocked and disappointed, the more fool me for expecting anything else.

Cheers,

Phil Fellman (and only Phil Fellman)

Hello All:

I find it deeply disturbing that Jonathan Vos Post has been censored out of this list. I'm not going to flame anyone, and my bias should be obvious, because a quick Google or ArXiv search will reveal me as his coauthor. BTW, the Google search is not as reliable as you might think. Earlier I did a search on my own publications and by one method found only 19, by another method found about 32 before they became sufficiently sparse for me to stop looking. John Sokol, who I also know, but with whom I have not coauthored (although we have worked together on a commercial scientific venture some years ago) referenced Sir Arthur Clarke. Professor Post is a coauthor with Sir Arthur, with Feynman, and probably has a higher Erdos number than anyone on this list. Sure, he's a bit of an argumentative guy, and sometimes more so than is entirely necessary. So is Stanley Cohen, which is putatively (this is only in the Nobel rumor mill, so it's a real ad hominem argument) why he was denied a Nobel Prize in medicine even though he and Herb Boyer are the discovers of recombinant DNA. Do you want to repeat and recapitulate this kind of behavior on an Oxford forum? I should hope not. I've been at conferences where I've seen professor Post interact with Nobel Laureates. As a matter of fact, at one recent conference, he and I had breakfast with Nobel Laureate John Nash and his family. Not we attended a breakfast, but just the five of us spent a couple of hours dining and discussing math and physics together. Nash had a lot of years where he was clinically ill. Does that mean you should censor him off your list too? This is nuts. I don't normally blog because I'm generally busy with more important things, but this is really crazy and before I too am censored out of this group, I'll put in my two cents and go do combinatorial mathematical logic later. I wonder what my colleagues in All Souls would think of this? I could ask, if you think that's appropriate? I'm the kind of guy who when reviewing conference papers often recommends accepting absolutely terrible, often terribly self-referential papers, on the principal that if you expose any set of ideas to open and free discussion, they receive at least some degree of exposure to rational criticism and then either get better or go away. If you lock these kinds of groups, ideas or individuals out, then they tend to become hermeneutic, self-reinforcing closed-loop pathological systems. Is that what you are trying to achieve here? Just my humble opinion, but other than stopping the pissing match, which any qualified moderator can and should do, that's what I think I'm seeing here. Prove me wrong by allowing the light of day on a rational discussion. Prove me right by censoring Sokol and me off the blog.

Phil Fellman, BFA, MA, MBA, MA, PhD

Is Molecular Nanotechnology "Scientific"?

Is this a debate about physical real things, or constructs of the English language, that technically only exists a pattens of vibrations in the air, or bit in my computer before me.

Nanomachines do already exist. They are called cell, viruses, macrophage, prions, and probably a whole universe of things we are just completely ignorant of. I think it's a safe assumption to assume if we don't go extinct, then we will be building these things using cad software just like we program FPGA's today.

If we will build them using some diamondoid like molecules is impossible to say. At this point in time we are about a certain of this technology as Leonardo DaVinci was about the future of human flight and many other technologies that seemed totally unscientific and even outright insane for it's time. He knew it was going to happen, and had a fair idea what form the inventions would have to take, but missed the specific details such as airfoils, aluminum and combustion engines.

So was Leonardo DaVinci Scientific or a crack pot? It really doesn't matter what you label him, he was still right on the big picture.

Please do not delete this.

I think it's important that everyone here abide by the proper rules of discourse for scientific debate. This means they must not try to use there credentials or personal attacks to try to gain the upper hand.

From JVP, "Is Tom McCabe asserting that I have NOT done what is claimed in some part of my CV, or published something which is, in fact, a matter of record?"

I would like to vouch personally for JVP, I have known him for some 10+ years. And even though he spends a little too much time pushing his credentials, he has been an indispensable source of deep knowledge of all things scientific, mathematics and just about anything in the Universe. He has never once been wrong in any of matter of technical discussion. I have run past him 100's of deep questions by now, ranging from number and coding theory, to heat transfer, chemistry, physics, quantum physics and material science, who's answers I later go off to research deeper. He's always right. He is only one of two people I have ever met that are all knowing Rabbi's of science. Yes Rabbi, which in biblical Hebrew means ‘great’ or ‘distinguished (in knowledge)’, and he is very much like that in every possible sense of the word. JVP is easily on par with Sir Arthur C. Clarke who I also know personally and have spent time with in Sri lanka.

It's really ashame to see things digress into a flame war.

I've deleted both comments. Tom, please don't respond to comments that I'm going to delete anyway.

[Edit: Unpublished comments from JVP aliases "John Sokol" and "Dr. Philip V. Fellman".]

I have unpublished a comment by Tom McCabe on Jon Post, and I declare this conversation over - please, neither of you comment about each other anymore here at Overcoming Bias.

This example seems further support for my suggestion that talking about whether something is "scientific" mostly obscures the key issues.

I disagree; I think this example clarifies the issue. The point is that statments about nanotechnology aren't scientific (not dervived from replicated experiments) but despite this, they aren't meaningless or empty of rigour.

Setting aside a special domain that is "scientific" clarifies those domains that aren't. And demonstates why answering the statement "nanotechnology will do such and such in a few years" with "show me a replicated experiment that proves what you've just said, or I won't believe it" is the wrong response. Though it would be the proper response for a scientific statment.

may I ask why?

Tom nailed it.

I have forwarded you your comments. Please don't post further comments to any more threads I've authored, or they will be deleted without archival.

Eliezer Yudkowsky: may I ask why?

I'm making what I thought was a rational, polite summary, thread by thread, of my credentials in the field, since one of the issues was whether or not Bostrom was properly citing his sources.

Is there something about my behavior, my language, or my prolific publications that you feel is inappropriate?

Also, I have not made copies of those comments which I'd submitted. If you are to delete them, would you be so kind as to email the text to me, or back them up? I did take some time to read the threads in question, and to attempt a short comment that cited by background and bias, for the sake of genuine conversation.

Is Tom McCabe asserting that I have NOT done what is claimed in some part of my CV, or published something which is, in fact, a matter of record? I'd rather not be punished for being very productive.

Sincerely,

Prof. Jonathan Vos Post

Notice of censorship: I've begun deleting comments from Jonathan vos Post.

I'm not impressed. The burden of proving it is science lies with the claimant. Drexler's site appeals to physical scaling laws, which to me makes it pseudoscientific speculation, or perhaps scientific speculation (with a little more convincing). Thorne and Braginsky's massive LIGO paper is an example of one that progresses to scientific status. It follows curves already established experimentally, and so is much more believable.

It's not scientific to say "all flying machines crash"; the scientist must (and is usually more than willing) to provide physical laws and scaling suggestions that back up the assertion. Peter Woit had a good point these last few days--real science is hard work.

Drexler seems to be proposing a microscopic cooperation of molecules which has no precedent. I have no reason to believe his scaling is obeyed into this regime until he can show "curves already established experimentally" that extrapolate to his complex motors. Real successes in nanotech have been incredible: nanotube resonators, SETs, self assembling DNA--very real, and (except for the third) very useful.

There's a standard picture in a bunch of experimental presentations. It's a log plot that has an up-right diagonal line. Towards it, a line burrows to the bottom-right, until it curves upward, "repelled" by the line. This represents a scaling law which is eventually foiled by backaction, the tradeoff response. New techniques approach the line from a different height/width, or pass below the line before being repelled by another limit.

Warning signs here are: PhD 30 years ago. Not associated with a university. Lack of published progress. Any fool can tell you the consequences of such a technology, which is what he wastes most keystrokes on.

Please state your disagreements instead of insinuating that they exist.