If it's worth saying, but not worth its own post (even in Discussion), then it goes here.
Notes for future OT posters:
1. Please add the 'open_thread' tag.
2. Check if there is an active Open Thread before posting a new one. (Immediately before; refresh the list-of-threads page before posting.)
3. Open Threads should be posted in Discussion, and not Main.
4. Open Threads should start on Monday, and end on Sunday.
Clarity's bitching and moaning containment comment
No other top level comment by Clarity will be made in this Open Thread will be made because a considerable portion of LW voters don't give a shit
1. Windows 7 phones are problematic
-Windows 7 phone search history can't be deleted...
Seriously, Microsoft? People could find I eschew porn to instead listen to songs that remix in or mashup sounds from porn while going about my daily activities.
2. Can your genes exempt you from an altruistic imperative to donate your organs?
Do our SNP's indicate any exceptions to the duty to donate one's organs? rs17319721(A)'s and Rs429... are associated with kidney related issues. It doesn't appear any others are known to. The implications are unclear.
3. El Chapo's getting desperate.
What would you do in his situation? How does me manage to get to cartel to do his bidding when he's on the run when they could usurp him instead? I assume that other high up Sinoloa cartel people just appreciate his intelligence in planning their operations. And, that incidental helpers opportunist... (read more)
I am much happier about this comment than seeing several on an OT. I wouldn't mind seeing 2 a week in this format if it helps you think. Worth adding that you have numbered, titled, bulleted pointed, linked and self-explained your process which I expect adds to your karma score.
with 2, it's hard to respond - especially not knowing the area very well.
1, 3, 4, 5, 7 all seem like comments (or rhetorical with 7) not questions or really asking for response. If you do the same thing next week and get the same sort of response to some of your posts, you might be able to improve your content by filtering for ("things Clarity wants feedback on" | "thing clarity just wants to share") and dividing into two sections (in one comment is fine).
Because he asked what he could do to improve the reception of his comments, and was told that a major problem was that he spread random ideas across dozens of comments, cluttering threads up, and then proceeded to follow that advice. (Or, in more Less-Wrongian terms, he updated his beliefs, or something.)
People are showing their appreciation for the fact that he listened. Doing so is a great positive reinforcement of community norms, and makes users happy to follow the norms as they get rewarded for doing so, as opposed to the opposing strategy of downvoting deviations from the norm, which might result in resentment, as they would experience only punishment.
I've created a cost-benefit analysis of embryo selection for intelligence: http://www.gwern.net/Embryo%20selection
Turns out to be fairly challenging but ultimately delivers sensible results: modestly profitable but nothing special at current prices/polygenic-scores. But things get more interesting once we get scores from n>360k studies, and the multi-generational consequences are very interesting if we can get boosts like +9 points. Of course, it's mostly all a moot point and academic because of...
CRISPR. I've had a hard time getting prices because they all sound too good to be true.
Rationality for managers, part 374:
If your plans are greater than your capacity to do stuff, you need to set priorities. Prioritizing is a way to achieve some of your goals sooner, at the cost of achieving some other goals later (or not at all). Prioritizing is not a magical tool to achieve all of your goals sooner. If you cannot make an explicit decision to postpone some goals, by definition you are unable to set priorities.
Adding the words "priority: urgent" to a task achieves the desired effect only if there are other tasks without the label "priority: urgent". Giving the label to all your tasks is equivalent to giving it to none of them. For example, if you create a planning spreadsheet or configure a planning software with priorities from 1 (highest) to 5 (lowest) only to find later that each task is assigned a priority 1, then the truth is that your company or division does not have priorities.
Even if you use different priorities, but the tasks labeled "priority: urgent" exceed your capacity to do stuff, then effectively every other label becomes synonymous to "this will never be done", and the label "priority: urgent" itself ... (read more)
I have 90% credence that Old_Gold is the new account of Eugine.
If we would apply Elon Musk first principle thinking to the problem of building homes in which we live, how would we build homes? Are there any big companies taken up that challenge?
Michael Vassar makes some observations about this in this chat from about 37:50-40:30. He begins describing something called a "hexayurt tridome", some kind of portable desert structure, and finishes saying "for the cost of engineering the 2016 Toyota Corolla and with the level of engineering skill required to engineer the 2016 Toyota Corolla it would probably be possible to engineer a house that would cost less than a Toyota Corolla and that could be deployed more easily and be adequate for any climate pretty much anywhere in the world where there's a reasonable amount of free space".
I think most places where people want to live don't fulfill the criteria of their being "a reasonable amount of free space".
Top rated questions on the new prediction website metaculus:
Fully autonomous self-driving cars by 2018?
Will "Planet Nine" be discovered in 2016?
In 2016, will an AI player beat a professionally ranked human in the ancient game of Go?
Will the cost of sequencing a human genome fall below $500 by mid 2016?
Experimental tests of quantum effects in cognition?
Sorry if this is a stupid question *, but is there any not complicated literature about how mass point geometry is related to, or used to teach more efficiently, or something else, probability theory? I used to fantasize about going through a middle-highschool-level book on MPG with my middle-highschool pupils (with added benefits of reinforcing Newtonian mechanics), and to get them into Bayes law (probability masses as masses and odds as lengths:), but... It was hard to imagine, say, triangles formed by probabilities.
I Googled it up, didn't find "exactly the thing" and moved on.
What are the best public places to discuss existential risks?
My list in order of quality:
Almost dead now:
Lifeboat foundation mailing list - almost dead now, but had good discussions before
http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/boar... (read more)
Is there a term for a generalization of existential risk that includes the extinction of alien intelligences or the drastic decrease of their potential? Existential risk, that is, the extinction of Earth-originating intelligent life or the drastic decrease of its potential, does not sound nearly as harmful if there are alien civilizations that become sufficiently advanced in place of Earth-originating life. However, an existential risk sounds far more harmful if it compromises all intelligent life in the universe, or if there is no other intelligent life i... (read more)
Decision theory humor, if anyone wants to contribute: https://www.reddit.com/r/DecisionTheory/comments/46ndc0/decision_theory_humor/
Events of recent days have made me suspect that I feel less depressed on days when I have little or no beard. But now that I know this hypothesis, I don't know how to test it without priming myself every time I shave. Suggestions?
[Comment removed because it drew attention to links between online identities of someone who turns out not to want attention drawn to them.]
Prediction Markets Going Wrong?
How many ways are there for a prediction market to go wrong?
In my story's current draft, once my protagonist upload has made a few copies of himself, I have him start up a prediction market to try to improve his decision-making, such as the likelihood any given plan will reach a useful goal. (Using currency created ab nihilo via a Bitcoin-like blockchain.) I have his similar copies end up coming to an overconfident consensus, leading to an explosive disaster, leading to attempts to deliberately diversity his copies' mindstate... (read more)
I've been reading HPMOR for the past week (currently at TSPE aftermath) and I'd like to recommend it to anyone who hasn't read it yet.
How good is the case for supplementing Vitamin K2 along with Vitamin D3?
What might be the cause of the perceived difference between the atheists/nontheists in Europe and in the USA?
I have the general feeling that the average atheist in the USA, when asked about religion, will be very open about believing religion to be either evil or ridiculously stupid, and will make at least a few remarks about how idiot those lunatics must be who believe that there are invisible people living on the top of the clouds. On the other hand, in Europe you are more likely to hear that "well, I'm not very religious", but many would cultu... (read more)
containment thread 2
1. Manipulating financial markets for fun and profit... (read more)
Okay, stupid and off-topic question:
I want to get a tablet for a Small Child so she doesn't keep bugging me for mine. The one I got her for her birthday broke in an unexpected manner: The glass is not damaged but the screen is displaying black lines and similar garbage. (It was also working at the beginning of a car ride and failed at the end of it - it couldn't have fallen onto a hard surface.) So I'm looking for a tablet that 1) has access to the apps on the Google Play store I've already bought for her; 2) can survive a tumble down a flight of stairs or... (read more)
Marriage: Civilization's BIggest Mistake
Something that bothers me about this is the all-too-common idea that kids are unruly and will cause endless destruction. I remember my parents being anxious to leave me alone at home and me thinking "Umm what? What could I do?" and being proud the house didn't look like whatever's left after a direct hit from a nuke.
Seems to me that the problem isn't marriage per se, but atomic families. I assume that many people would prefer "spend 50% of time taking care of 4 children, then have 50% free time" to "spend 100% of time taking care of 2 children, no free time". If your sister lives the next door, it's easy to arrange. If you have good relationship with the neighbors who have children of similar age, still possible.
The article is in my opinion rather stupid. It essentially suggests putting kids into institutional care. The author probably never heard anything about what typically happens to children in such institutions. (That's the charitable assumption; the uncharitable one would be that the author just doesn't care.) My Facebook friend list happens to include a person who frequently interacts with such institutions, and after reading all the horror stories, I think almost anything is better than the institutional care; except when the child is abused at home (and I don't mean "microaggressions" or anything like that).
As a former... (read more)
Anyone have recommendations of fiction along the lines of Worm and HPMOR that are also very long (>400k words)?
Did someone change the threshold for hiding comments? Didn't it use to be that -4 comments were hidden and now -3 are?
Miniature brains seem like they could become very important.
Can they be kept alive for long? Can they be enlarged? Can they be trained? Is the distinction between human neurons and other mammalian neurons significant?
To prompt some discussion, say someone tried to build "self-driving" cars in the following way: put a big brain full of rat neurons in a vat, hook it up to a car, and then train it to navigate.
How would a Donald Trump presidency effect the probability we achieve friendly AI before Clippy arrives?
Also, it appears OP used Comic Sans. Hm.
Why I don’t want to explore storm water drains
*Or, terrifying excerpts from a how-to guide on exploring drains... (read more)