I'm interested in predictions for where in cases/day this rapid decline stops (or steadies out for the medium term). I think different underlying causes for the drop yield different answers.
If "we've reached a vax+infection herd immunity" is to be believed, then we'd expect cases to bottom out pretty low barring any new variants/immune escape yes?
Most other causes yield more depressing answers. If this is behavioral changes or lack of testing I'd expect very little in terms of getting to low absolute case levels. Seasonality perhaps?
The entire turnaround just seems very sharp, which leaves me confused (and looking for a better model). I'm not sure any of the offered explanations sound very convincing to me. This pattern occurring in places besides the UK seems to rule out region-specific explanations like "Freedom day". I think that case levels over the next couple weeks in the UK and other countries following similar trajectories should give some additional evidence?