I think you should have a kid if you would have wanted one without recent AI progress. Timelines are still very uncertain, and strong AGI could still be decades away. Parenthood is strongly value creating and extremely rewarding (if hard at times) and that's true in many many worlds.

In fact it's hard to find probable worlds where having kids is a really bad idea, IMO. If we solve alignment and end up in AI utopia, having kids is great! If we don't solve alignment and EY is right about what happens in a fast takeoff world, it doesn't really matter if you have kids or not.

In that sense, it's basically a freeroll, though of course there are intermediate outcomes. I don't immediately see any strong argument in favor of not having kids if you would otherwise want them.

Empirically my answer to this is yes: I'm due in January with my second.

When I had my first child, I was thinking in terms of longer timelines. I assumed before having them that it would not be worth having a child if the world ended within a few years of their birth, because I would be less happy and their utility wouldn't really be much until later.

One month after my first baby was born, I had a sudden and very deep feeling that if the world ended tomorrow, it would have been worth it.

YMMV of course, but having kids can be a very deep human experience that pays off much sooner than you might think.

If I was in a relationship where everyone involved wanted a kid and I believed the kid would have a good chance of having positive role models and the kind of environment I'd wish for someone I love throughout its formative years, yes.

The "what if my child can't do intellectual labor because of AI?" question is, IMO, a very similar shape of risk to "what if my child can't do intellectual labor because they have an intellectual disability?".

If you'd love a kid even if they turned out to be in a low percentile of society intellectually, then you're ready for a kid regardless of whether the world you're bringing it into happens to have AI smarter than it. If your desire to add to your family is contingent on assumptions about how the new addition's abilities would compare to those of other agents it interacts with, it might be worth having a good think about whether that's a childhood environment that you would wish upon a person whom you love.

You're providing no evidence that superintelligence is likely in the next 30 years other than a Yudkowsky tweet. I expect that 30 years later we will not have superintelligence (of the sort that can build the stack to run itself on, growing at a fast rate, taking over the solar system etc).

An aspect that I would not take into account is the expected impact of your children.

Most importantly, it just seems wrong to make personal-happiness decisions subservient to impact.
But even if you did want to optimise impact through others, then betting on your children seems riskier and less effective than, for example, engaging with interested students. (And even if you wanted to optimise impact at all costs, then the key factors might not be your impact through others. But instead (i) your opportunity costs, (ii) second order effects, where having kids makes you more or less happy, and this changes the impact of your work, and (iii) negative second order effects that "sacrificing personal happiness because of impact" has on the perception of the community.)

Having kids will make you care more about the future.

If a friend or partner wanted to have a child with me Id potentially be down. Though we would need to have extremely aligned view on non-coercive parenting. Also im a sleepy boy so we gotta be aligned on low effort parenting too.

Yes. The more the merrier.

PSA: you have less control over whether you have kids, or how many you get, than people generally believe. There are biological problems you might not know you have, there are women who lie about contraception, there are hormonal pressures you won't feel till you reach a certain age, there are twins and stillbirth, and most of all there are super horny split second decisions in the literal heat of the moment that your system 2 is too slow to stop.

I understand this doesn't answer the question, I just took the opportunity to share a piece of information that I consider not well-understood enough. Please have a plan for the scenario where your reproductive strategy doesn't work out.