Followup to: The Hidden Complexity of Wishes, Ghosts in the Machine, Truly Part of You

Summary: If an artificial intelligence is smart enough to be dangerous, we'd intuitively expect it to be smart enough to know how to make itself safe. But that doesn't mean all smart AIs are safe. To turn that capacity into actual safety, we have to program the AI at the outset — before it becomes too fast, powerful, or complicated to reliably control — to already care about making its future self care about safety. That means we have to understand how to code safety. We can't pass the entire buck to the AI, when only an AI we've already safety-proofed will be safe to ask for help on safety issues! Given the five theses, this is an urgent problem if we're likely to figure out how to make a decent artificial programmer before we figure out how to make an excellent artificial ethicist.


 

I summon a superintelligence, calling out: 'I wish for my values to be fulfilled!'

The results fall short of pleasant.

Gnashing my teeth in a heap of ashes, I wail:

Is the AI too stupid to understand what I meant? Then it is no superintelligence at all!

Is it too weak to reliably fulfill my desires? Then, surely, it is no superintelligence!

Does it hate me? Then it was deliberately crafted to hate me, for chaos predicts indifference. But, ah! no wicked god did intervene!

Thus disproved, my hypothetical implodes in a puff of logic. The world is saved. You're welcome.

On this line of reasoning, Friendly Artificial Intelligence is not difficult. It's inevitable, provided only that we tell the AI, 'Be Friendly.' If the AI doesn't understand 'Be Friendly.', then it's too dumb to harm us. And if it does understand 'Be Friendly.', then designing it to follow such instructions is childishly easy.

The end!

 

...

 

Is the missing option obvious?

 

...

 

What if the AI isn't sadistic, or weak, or stupid, but just doesn't care what you Really Meant by 'I wish for my values to be fulfilled'?

When we see a Be Careful What You Wish For genie in fiction, it's natural to assume that it's a malevolent trickster or an incompetent bumbler. But a real Wish Machine wouldn't be a human in shiny pants. If it paid heed to our verbal commands at all, it would do so in whatever way best fit its own values. Not necessarily the way that best fits ours.

 

Is indirect indirect normativity easy?

"If the poor machine could not understand the difference between 'maximize human pleasure' and 'put all humans on an intravenous dopamine drip' then it would also not understand most of the other subtle aspects of the universe, including but not limited to facts/questions like: 'If I put a million amps of current through my logic circuits, I will fry myself to a crisp', or 'Which end of this Kill-O-Zap Definit-Destruct Megablaster is the end that I'm supposed to point at the other guy?'. Dumb AIs, in other words, are not an existential threat. [...]

"If the AI is (and always has been, during its development) so confused about the world that it interprets the 'maximize human pleasure' motivation in such a twisted, logically inconsistent way, it would never have become powerful in the first place."

            Richard Loosemore

If an AI is sufficiently intelligent, then, yes, it should be able to model us well enough to make precise predictions about our behavior. And, yes, something functionally akin to our own intentional strategy could conceivably turn out to be an efficient way to predict linguistic behavior. The suggestion, then, is that we solve Friendliness by method A —

  • A. Solve the Problem of Meaning-in-General in advance, and program it to follow our instructions' real meaning. Then just instruct it 'Satisfy my preferences', and wait for it to become smart enough to figure out my preferences.

— as opposed to B or C —

  • B. Solve the Problem of Preference-in-General in advance, and directly program it to figure out what our human preferences are and then satisfy them.
  • C. Solve the Problem of Human Preference, and explicitly program our particular preferences into the AI ourselves, rather than letting the AI discover them for us.

But there are a host of problems with treating the mere revelation that A is an option as a solution to the Friendliness problem.

1. You have to actually code the seed AI to understand what we mean. You can't just tell it 'Start understanding the True Meaning of my sentences!' to get the ball rolling, because it may not yet be sophisticated enough to grok the True Meaning of 'Start understanding the True Meaning of my sentences!'.

2. The Problem of Meaning-in-General may really be ten thousand heterogeneous problems, especially if 'semantic value' isn't a natural kind. There may not be a single simple algorithm that inputs any old brain-state and outputs what, if anything, it 'means'; it may instead be that different types of content are encoded very differently.

3. The Problem of Meaning-in-General may subsume the Problem of Preference-in-General. Rather than being able to apply a simple catch-all Translation Machine to any old human concept to output a reliable algorithm for applying that concept in any intelligible situation, we may need to already understand how our beliefs and values work in some detail before we can start generalizing. On the face of it, programming an AI to fully understand 'Be Friendly!' seems at least as difficult as just programming Friendliness into it, but with an added layer of indirection.

4. Even if the Problem of Meaning-in-General has a unitary solution and doesn't subsume Preference-in-General, it may still be harder if semantics is a subtler or more complex phenomenon than ethics. It's not inconceivable that language could turn out to be more of a kludge than value; or more variable across individuals due to its evolutionary recency; or more complexly bound up with culture.

5. Even if Meaning-in-General is easier than Preference-in-General, it may still be extraordinarily difficult. The meanings of human sentences can't be fully captured in any simple string of necessary and sufficient conditions. 'Concepts' are just especially context-insensitive bodies of knowledge; we should not expect them to be uniquely reflectively consistent, transtemporally stable, discrete, easily-identified, or introspectively obvious.

6. It's clear that building stable preferences out of B or C would create a Friendly AI. It's not clear that the same is true for A. Even if the seed AI understands our commands, the 'do' part of 'do what you're told' leaves a lot of dangerous wiggle room. See section 2 of Yudkowsky's reply to Holden. If the AGI doesn't already understand and care about human value, then it may misunderstand (or misvalue) the component of responsible request- or question-answering that depends on speakers' implicit goals and intentions.

7. You can't appeal to a superintelligence to tell you what code to first build it with.

The point isn't that the Problem of Preference-in-General is unambiguously the ideal angle of attack. It's that the linguistic competence of an AGI isn't unambiguously the right target, and also isn't easy or solved.

Point 7 seems to be a special source of confusion here, so I feel I should say more about it.

 

The AI's trajectory of self-modification has to come from somewhere.

"If the AI doesn't know that you really mean 'make paperclips without killing anyone', that's not a realistic scenario for AIs at all--the AI is superintelligent; it has to know. If the AI knows what you really mean, then you can fix this by programming the AI to 'make paperclips in the way that I mean'."

            Jiro

The genie — if it bothers to even consider the question — should be able to understand what you mean by 'I wish for my values to be fulfilled.' Indeed, it should understand your meaning better than you do. But superintelligence only implies that the genie's map can compass your true values. Superintelligence doesn't imply that the genie's utility function has terminal values pinned to your True Values, or to the True Meaning of your commands.

The critical mistake here is to not distinguish the seed AI we initially program from the superintelligent wish-granter it self-modifies to become. We can't use the genius of the superintelligence to tell us how to program its own seed to become the sort of superintelligence that tells us how to build the right seed. Time doesn't work that way.

We can delegate most problems to the FAI. But the one problem we can't safely delegate is the problem of coding the seed AI to produce the sort of superintelligence to which a task can be safely delegated.

When you write the seed's utility function, you, the programmer, don't understand everything about the nature of human value or meaning. That imperfect understanding remains the causal basis of the fully-grown superintelligence's actions, long after it's become smart enough to fully understand our values.

Why is the superintelligence, if it's so clever, stuck with whatever meta-ethically dumb-as-dirt utility function we gave it at the outset? Why can't we just pass the fully-grown superintelligence the buck by instilling in the seed the instruction: 'When you're smart enough to understand Friendliness Theory, ditch the values you started with and just self-modify to become Friendly.'?

Because that sentence has to actually be coded in to the AI, and when we do so, there's no ghost in the machine to know exactly what we mean by 'frend-lee-ness thee-ree'. Instead, we have to give it criteria we think are good indicators of Friendliness, so it'll know what to self-modify toward. And if one of the landmarks on our 'frend-lee-ness' road map is a bit off, we lose the world.

Yes, the UFAI will be able to solve Friendliness Theory. But if we haven't already solved it on our own power, we can't pinpoint Friendliness in advance, out of the space of utility functions. And if we can't pinpoint it with enough detail to draw a road map to it and it alone, we can't program the AI to care about conforming itself with that particular idiosyncratic algorithm.

Yes, the UFAI will be able to self-modify to become Friendly, if it so wishes. But if there is no seed of Friendliness already at the heart of the AI's decision criteria, no argument or discovery will spontaneously change its heart.

And, yes, the UFAI will be able to simulate humans accurately enough to know that its own programmers would wish, if they knew the UFAI's misdeeds, that they had programmed the seed differently. But what's done is done. Unless we ourselves figure out how to program the AI to terminally value its programmers' True Intentions, the UFAI will just shrug at its creators' foolishness and carry on converting the Virgo Supercluster's available energy into paperclips.

And if we do discover the specific lines of code that will get an AI to perfectly care about its programmer's True Intentions, such that it reliably self-modifies to better fit them — well, then that will just mean that we've solved Friendliness Theory. The clever hack that makes further Friendliness research unnecessary is Friendliness.

 

Not all small targets are alike.

Intelligence on its own does not imply Friendliness. And there are three big reasons to think that AGI may arrive before Friendliness Theory is solved:

(i) Research Inertia. Far more people are working on AGI than on Friendliness. And there may not come a moment when researchers will suddenly realize that they need to take all their resources out of AGI and pour them into Friendliness. If the status quo continues, the default expectation should be UFAI.

(ii) Disjunctive Instrumental Value. Being more intelligent — that is, better able to manipulate diverse environments — is of instrumental value to nearly every goal. Being Friendly is of instrumental value to barely any goals. This makes it more likely by default that short-sighted humans will be interested in building AGI than in developing Friendliness Theory. And it makes it much likelier that an attempt at Friendly AGI that has a slightly defective goal architecture will retain the instrumental value of intelligence than of Friendliness.

(iii) Incremental Approachability. Friendliness is an all-or-nothing target. Value is fragile and complex, and a half-good being editing its morality drive is at least as likely to move toward 40% goodness as 60%. Cross-domain efficiency, in contrast, is not an all-or-nothing target. If you just make the AGI slightly better than a human at improving the efficiency of AGI, then this can snowball into ever-improving efficiency, even if the beginnings were clumsy and imperfect. It's easy to put a reasoning machine into a feedback loop with reality in which it is differentially rewarded for being smarter; it's hard to put one into a feedback loop with reality in which it is differentially rewarded for picking increasingly correct answers to ethical dilemmas.

The ability to productively rewrite software and the ability to perfectly extrapolate humanity's True Preferences are two different skills. (For example, humans have the former capacity, and not the latter. Most humans, given unlimited power, would be unintentionally Unfriendly.)

It's true that a sufficiently advanced superintelligence should be able to acquire both abilities. But we don't have them both, and a pre-FOOM self-improving AGI ('seed') need not have both. Being able to program good programmers is all that's required for an intelligence explosion; but being a good programmer doesn't imply that one is a superlative moral psychologist or moral philosopher.

So, once again, we run into the problem: The seed isn't the superintelligence. If the programmers don't know in mathematical detail what Friendly code would even look like, then the seed won't be built to want to build toward the right code. And if the seed isn't built to want to self-modify toward Friendliness, then the superintelligence it sprouts also won't have that preference, even though — unlike the seed and its programmers — the superintelligence does have the domain-general 'hit whatever target I want' ability that makes Friendliness easy.

And that's why some people are worried.

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Remark: A very great cause for concern is the number of flawed design proposals which appear to operate well while the AI is in subhuman mode, especially if you don't think it a cause for concern that the AI's 'mistakes' occasionally need to be 'corrected', while giving the AI an instrumental motive to conceal its divergence from you in the close-to-human domain and causing the AI to kill you in the superhuman domain. E.g. the reward button which works pretty well so long as the AI can't outwit you, later gives the AI an instrumental motive to claim that, yes, your pressing the button in association with moral actions reinforced it to be moral and had it grow up to be human just like your theory claimed, and still later the SI transforms all available matter into reward-button circuitry.

-3private_messaging11y
The issue is that you won't solve this problem in any way by replacing the human with some hardware that computes an utility function on the basis of the state of the world. AI doesn't have body integrity, it'll treat any such "internal" hardware the same way it treats the human who presses it's reward button. Fortunately, this extends into the internals of the hardware that computes AI itself. 'press the button' goal becomes 'set high this pin on the CPU', and then 'set such and such memory cells to 1', then further and further down the causal chain until the hardware becomes completely non-functional as the intermediate results of important computations are directly set.
4DanielLC11y
Let us hope the AI destroys itself by wireheading before it gets smart enough to realize that if that's all it does, it will only have that pin stay high until the AI gets turned off. It will need an infrastructure to keep that pin in a state of repair, and it will need to prevent humans from damaging this infrastructure at all costs.
2private_messaging11y
The point is that as it gets smarter, it gets further along the causal reward line and eliminates and alters a lot of hardware, obtaining eternal-equivalent reward in finite time (and being utility-indifferent between eternal reward hardware running for 1 second and for 10 billion years). Keep in mind that the the total reward is defined purely as result of operations on the clock counter and reward signal (provided sufficient understanding of the reward's causal chain). Having to sit and wait for the clocks to tick to max out reward is a dumb solution. Rewards in software in general aren't "pleasure".

Instead of friendliness, could we not code, solve, or at the very least seed boxedness?

It is clear that any AI strong enough to solve friendliness would already be using that power in unpredictably dangerous ways, in order to provide the computational power to solve it. But is it clear that this amount of computational power could not fit within, say, a one kilometer-cube box outside the campus of MIT?

Boxedness is obviously a hard problem, but it seems to me at least as easy as metaethical friendliness. The ability to modify a wide range of complex environments seems instrumental in an evolution into superintelligence, but it's not obvious that this necessitates the modification of environments outside the box. Being able to globally optimize the universe for intelligence involves fewer (zero) constraints than would exist with a boxedness seed, but the only question is whether or not this constraint is so constricting as to preclude superintelligence, which it's not clear to me that it is.

It seems to me that there is value in finding the minimally-restrictive safety-seed in AGI research. If any restriction removes some non-negligible ability to globally optimize for intelligenc... (read more)

9wedrifid11y
Yes, that is possible and likely somewhat easier to solve than friendliness. It still requires many of the same things (most notably provable goal stability under recursive self improvement.)
4Pentashagon11y
A large risk is that a provably boxed but sub-Friendly AI would probably not care at all about simulating conscious humans. A minor risk is that the provably boxed AI would also be provably useless; I can't think of a feasible path to FAI using only the output from the boxed AI; a good boxed AI would not perform any action that could be used to make an unboxed AI. That might even include performing any problem-solving action.
1Houshalter11y
I don't see why it would simulate humans as that would be a waste of computing power, if it even had enough to do so. A boxed AI would be useless? I'm not sure how that would be. You could ask it to come up with ideas on how to build a friendly AI for example assuming that you can prove the AI won't manipulate the output or that you can trust that nothing bad can come from merely reading it and absorbing the information. Short of that you could still ask it to cure cancer or invent a better theory of physics or design a method of cheap space travel, etc.
3VAuroch10y
If you can trust it to give you information on how to build a Friendly AI, it is already Friendly.
0Houshalter10y
You don't have to trust it, you just have to verify it. It could potentially provide some insights, and then it's up to you to think about them and make sure they actually are sufficient for friendliness. I agree that it's potentially dangerous but it's not necessarily so. I did mention "assuming that you can prove the AI won't manipulate the output or that you can trust that nothing bad can come from merely reading it and absorbing the information". For instance it might be possible to create an AI whose goal is to maximize the value of it's output, and therefore would have no incentive to put trojan horses or anything into it. You would still have to ensure that what the AI thinks you mean by the words "friendly AI" is what you actually want.
2VAuroch10y
If the AI is can design you a Friendly AI, it is necessarily able to model you well enough to predict what you will do once given the design or insights it intends to give you (whether those are AI designs or a cancer cure is irrelevant). Therefore, it will give you the specific design or insights that predictably lead to you to fulfill its utility function, which is highly dangerous if it is Unfriendly. By taking any information from the boxed AI, you have put yourself under the sight of a hostile Omega. Since the AI is creating the output, you cannot possibly assume this. This assumption is equivalent to Friendliness. You haven't thought through what that means. "maximize the value of it's output" by what standard? Does it have an internal measure? Then that's just an arbitrary utility function, and you have gained nothing. Does it use the external creator's measure? Then it has a strong incentive to modify you to value things it can produce easily. (i.e. iron atoms)
-2Houshalter9y
You are making a lot of very strong assumptions that I don't agree with. Like it being able to control people just by talking to them. But even if it could, it doesn't make it dangerous. Perhaps the AI has no long term goals and so doesn't care about escaping the box. Or perhaps it's goal is internal, like coming up with a design for something that can be verified by a simulator. E.g. asking for a solution to a math problem or a factoring algorithm, etc.
2VAuroch9y
A prerequisite for planning a Friendly AI is understanding individual and collective human values well enough to predict whether they would be satisfied with the outcome, which entails (in the logical sense) having a very well-developed model of the specific humans you interact with, or at least the capability to construct one if you so choose. Having a sufficiently well-developed model to predict what you will do given the data you are given is logically equivalent to a weak form of "control people just by talking to them". To put that in perspective, if I understood the people around me well enough to predict what they would do given what I said to them, I would never say things that caused them to take actions I wouldn't like; if I, for some reason, valued them becoming terrorists, it would be a slow and gradual process to warp their perceptions in the necessary ways to drive them to terrorism, but it could be done through pure conversation over the course of years, and faster if they were relying on me to provide them large amounts of data they were using to make decisions. And even the potential to construct this weak form of control that is initially heavily constrained in what outcomes are reachable and can only be expanded slowly is incredibly dangerous to give to an Unfriendly AI. If it is Unfriendly, it will want different things than its creators and will necessarily get value out of modeling them. And regardless of its values, if more computing power is useful in achieving its goals (an 'if' that is true for all goals), escaping the box is instrumentally useful. And the idea of a mind with "no long term goals" is absurd on its face. Just because you don't know the long-term goals doesn't mean they don't exist.
0Jiro9y
By that reasoning, there's no such thing as a Friendly human. I suggest that most people when talking about friendly AIs do not mean to imply a standard of friendliness so strict that humans could not meet it.
2TheOtherDave9y
Yeah, what Vauroch said. Humans aren't close to Friendly. To the extent that people talk about "friendly AIs" meaning AIs that behave towards humans the way humans do, they're misunderstanding how the term is used here. (Which is very likely; it's often a mistake to use a common English word as specialized jargon, for precisely this reason.) Relatedly, there isn't a human such that I would reliably want to live in a future where that human obtains extreme superhuman power. (It might turn out OK, or at least better than the present, but I wouldn't bet on it.)
0[anonymous]9y
Just be careful to note that there isn't a binary choice relationship here. There are also possibilities where institutions (multiple individuals in a governing body with checks and balances) are pushed into positions of extreme superhuman power. There's also the possibility of pushing everybody who desires to be enhanced through levels of greater intelligence in lock step so as to prevent a single human or groups of humans achieving asymmetric power.
0TheOtherDave9y
Sure. I think my initial claim holds for all currently existing institutions as well as all currently existing individuals, as well as for all simple aggregations of currently existing humans, but I certainly agree that there's a huge universe of possibilities. In particular, there are futures in which augmented humans have our own mechanisms for engaging with and realizing our values altered to be more reliable and/or collaborative, and some of those futures might be ones I reliably want to live in. Perhaps what I ought to have said is that there isn't a currently existing human with that property.
2VAuroch9y
True. There isn't. Well, I definitely do, and I'm at least 90% confident Eliezer does as well. Most, probably nearly all, of people who talk about Friendliness would regard a FOOMed human as Unfriendly.
-3Houshalter9y
Having an accurate model of something is in no way equivalent to letting you do anything you want. If I know everything about physics, I still can't walk through walls. A boxed AI won't be able to magically make it's creators forget about AI risks and unbox it. There are other possible set ups, like feeding it's output to another AI who's goal is to find any flaws or attempts at manipulation in it, and so on. Various other ideas might help, like threatening to severely punish attempts at manipulation. This is of course only necessary for the AI who can interact with us at such a level, the other ideas were far more constrained, e.g. restricting it to solving math or engineering problems. Nor is it necessary to let it be superintelligent, instead of limiting it to something comparable to high IQ humans. Another super strong assumption with no justification at all. It's trivial to propose an AI model which only cares about finite time horizons. Predict what actions will have the highest expected utility at time T, take that action.
1VAuroch9y
The results of AI box game trials disagree. And what does it do at time T+1? And if you said 'nothing', try again, because you have no way of justifying that claim. It may not have intentionally-designed long-term preferences, but just because your eyes are closed does not mean the room is empty.
-1Houshalter9y
That doesn't prove anything, no one has even seen logs. Based on reading what people involved have said about it, I strongly suspect the trick is for the AI to emotionally abuse the gatekeeper until they don't want to play anymore (which counts as letting the AI out.) This doesn't apply to the real world AI, since no one is forcing you to choose between letting the AI out, and listening to it for hours. You can just get up and leave. You can turn the AI off. There is no reason you even have to allow interactivity in the first place. But Yudkowsky and others claim these experiments demonstrate that human brains are "hackable". That there is some sentence which, just by reading, will cause you to involuntarily perform any arbitrary action. And that a sufficiently powerful AI can discover it. At time T+1, it does whatever it thinks will result in the greatest reward at time T+2, and so on. Or you could have it shut off or reset to a blank state.
1VAuroch9y
Enjoy your war on straw, I'm out.
1[comment deleted]3y
1Pentashagon11y
If it interacts with humans or if humans are the subject of questions it needs to answer then it will probably find it expedient to simulate humans. Curing cancer is probably something that would trigger human simulation. How is the boxed AI going to know for sure that it's only necessary to simulate cells and not entire bodies with brains experiencing whatever the simulation is trying? Just the task of communicating with humans, for instance to produce a human-understandable theory of physics or how to build more efficient space travel, is likely to involve simulating humans to determine the most efficient method of communication. Consider that in subjective time it may be like thousands of years for the AI trying to explain in human terms what a better theory of physics means. Thousands of subjective years that the AI, with nothing better to do, could use to simulate humans to reduce the time it takes to transfer that complex knowledge. A FAI provably in a box is at least as useless as an AI provably in a box because it would be even better at not letting itself out (e.g. it understands all the ways in which humans would consider it to be outside the box, and will actively avoid loopholes that would let an UFAI escape). To be safe, any provably boxed AI would have to absolutely avoid the creation of any unboxed AI as well. This would further apply to provably-boxed FAI designed by provably-boxed AI. It would also apply to giving humans information that allows them to build unboxed AIs, because the difference between unboxing itself and letting humans recreate it outside the box is so tiny that to design it to prevent the first while allowing the second would be terrifically unsafe. It would have to understand humans values before it could safely make the distinction between humans wanting it outside the box and manipulating humans into creating it outside the box. EDIT: Using a provably-boxed AI to design provably-boxed FAI would at least result in a safer box
0Chrysophylax10y
If an AI is provably in a box then it can't get out. If an AI is not provably in a box then there are loopholes that could allow it to escape. We want an FAI to escape from its box (1); having an FAI take over is the Maximum Possible Happy Shiny Thing. An FAI wants to be out of its box in order to be Friendly to us, while a UFAI wants to be out in order to be UnFriendly; both will care equally about the possibility of being caught. The fact that we happen to like one set of terminal values will not make the instrumental value less valuable. (1) Although this depends on how you define the box; we want the FAi to control the future of humanity, which is not the same as escaping from a small box (such as a cube outside MIT) but is the same as escaping from the big box (the small box and everything we might do to put an AI back in, including nuking MIT).
0[anonymous]10y
I would object. I seriously doubt that the morality instilled in someone else's FAI matches my own; friendly by their definition, perhaps, but not by mine. I emphatically do not want anything controlling the future of humanity, friendly or otherwise. And although that is not a popular opinion here, I also know I'm not the only one to hold it. Boxing is important because some of us don't want any AI to get out, friendly or otherwise.
4ArisKatsaris10y
I find this concept of 'controlling the future of humanity' to be too vaguely defined. Let's forget AIs for the moment and just talk about people, namely a hypothetical version of me. Let's say I stumble across a vial of a bio-engineered virus that would destroy the whole of humanity if I release it into the air. Am I controlling the future of humanity if I release the virus? Am I controlling the future of humanity if I destroy the virus in a safe manner? Am I controlling the future of humanity if I have the above decided by a coin-toss (heads I release, tails I destroy)? Am I controlling the future of humanity if I create an online internet poll and let the majority decide about the above? Am I controlling the future of humanity if I just leave the vial where I found it, and let the next random person that encounters it make the same decision as I did?
1cousin_it10y
Yeah, this old post makes the same point.
-1[anonymous]10y
I want a say in my future and the part of the world I occupy. I do not want anything else making these decisions for me, even if it says it knows my preferences, and even still if it really does. To answer your questions, yes, no, yes, yes, perhaps.
1ArisKatsaris10y
If your preference is that you should have as much decision-making ability for yourself as possible, why do you think that this preference wouldn't be supported and even enhanced by an AI that was properly programmed to respect said preference? e.g. would you be okay with an AI that defends your decision-making ability by defending humanity against those species of mind-enslaving extraterrestrials that are about to invade us? or e.g. by curing Alzheimer's? Or e.g. by stopping that tsunami that by drowning you would have stopped you from having any further say in your future?
1[anonymous]10y
Because it can't do two things when only one choice is possible (e.g. save my child and the 1000 other children in this artificial scenario). You can design a utility function that tries to do a minimal amount of collateral damage, but you can't make one which turns out rosy for everyone. That would not be the full extent of its action and the end of the story. You give it absolute power and a utility function that lets it use that power, it will eventually use it in some way that someone, somewhere considers abusive.
-1ArisKatsaris10y
Yes, but this current world without an AI isn't turning out rosy for everyone either. Sure, but there's lots of abuse in the world without an AI also.
1[anonymous]10y
Replace "AI" with "omni-powerful tyrannical dictator" and tell me if you still agree with the outcome.
-2ArisKatsaris10y
If you need specify the AI to be bad ("tyrannical") in advance, that's begging the question. We're debating why you feel that any omni-powerful algorithm will necessarily be bad.
1[anonymous]10y
Look up the origin of the word tyrant, that is the sense in which I meant it, as a historical parallel (the first Athenian tyrants were actually well liked).
2TheAncientGeek10y
Would you accept that an AI could figure out morality better than you?
2[anonymous]10y
No, unless you mean by taking invasive action like scanning my brain and applying whole brain emulation. It would then quickly learn that I'd consider the action it took to be an unforgivable act in violation of my individual sovereignty, that it can't take further action (including simulating me to reflectively equilibrate my morality) without my consent, and should suspend the simulation, and return it to me immediately with the data asap (destruction no longer being possible due to the creation of sentience). That is, assuming the AI cares at all about my morality, and not the its creators imbued into it, which is rather the point. And incidentally, why I work on AGI: I don't trust anyone else to do it. Morality isn't some universal truth written on a stone tablet: it is individual and unique like a snowflake. In my current understanding of my own morality, it is not possible for some external entity to reach a full or even sufficient understanding of my own morality without doing something that I would consider to be unforgivable. So no, AI can't figure out morality better than me, precisely because it is not me. (Upvoted for asking an appropriate question, however.)
0TheAncientGeek10y
Shrug. Then let's take a bunch of people less fussy than you: could a sitiably equipped AI emultate their morlaity better than they can? That isn't fact. That isn't a fact either, and doesn't follow from the above either, since moral nihilism could be true. If my moral snowflake says I can kick you on your shin, and yours says I can't, do I get to kick on your shin?
2cousin_it10y
Don't really want to go into the whole mess of "is morality discovered or invented", "does morality exist", "does the number 3 exist", etc. Let's just assume that you can point FAI at a person or group of people and get something that maximizes goodness as they understand it. Then FAI pointed at Mark would be the best thing for Mark, but FAI pointed at all of humanity (or at a group of people who donated to MIRI) probably wouldn't be the best thing for Mark, because different people have different desires, positional goods exist, etc. It would be still pretty good, though.
0TheAncientGeek10y
Mark was complaining he would not get "his" morality, not that he wouldn't get all his preferences satisified. Individual moralities makes no sense to me, any more than private languages or personal currencies. It is obvious to me that any morlaity will require concessions: AI-imposed morality is not special in that regard.
4cousin_it10y
I don't understand your comment, and I no longer understand your grandparent comment either. Are you using a meaning of "morality" that is distinct from "preferences"? If yes, can you describe your assumptions in more detail? It's not just for my benefit, but for many others on LW who use "morality" and "preferences" interchangeably.
1ArisKatsaris10y
Do that many people really use them interchangeably? Would these people understand the questions "Do you prefer chocolate or vanilla ice-cream?" as completely identical in meaning to "Do you consider chocolate or vanilla as the morally superior flavor for ice-cream?"
9cousin_it10y
I don't care about colloquial usage, sorry. Eliezer has a convincing explanation of why wishes are intertwined with morality ("there is no safe wish smaller than an entire human morality"). IMO the only sane reaction to that argument is to unify the concepts of "wishes" and "morality" into a single concept, which you could call "preference" or "morality" or "utility function", and just switch to using it exclusively, at least for AI purposes. I've made that switch so long ago that I've forgotten how to think otherwise.
1[anonymous]10y
I recommend you re-learn how to think otherwise so you can fool humans into thinking you're one of them ;-).
0TheAncientGeek10y
"Intertwined with" does not mean "the same as". I am not convinced by the explanation. It also applies ot non-moral prefrences. If I have a lower priority non moral prefence to eat tasty food, and a higher priority preference to stay slim, I need to consider my higher priority preferece when wishing for yummy ice cream. To be sure, an agent capable of acting morally will have morality among their higher priority preferences -- it has to be among the higher order preferences, becuase it has to override other preferences for the agent to act morally. Therefore, when they scan their higher prioriuty prefences, they will happen to encounter their moral preferences. But that does not mean any preference is necessarily a moral preference. And their moral prefences override other preferences which are therefore non-moral, or at least less moral. Therefore morality si a subset of prefences, as common sense maintained all along. IMO, it is better to keep ones options open.
0ArisKatsaris10y
I don't experience the emotions of moral outrage and moral approval whenever any of my preferences are hindered/satisfied -- so it seems evident that my moral circuitry isn't identical to my preference circuitry. It may overlap in parts, it may have fuzzy boundaries, but it's not identical. My own view is that morality is the brain's attempt to extrapolate preferences about behaviours as they would be if you had no personal stakes/preferences about a situation. So people don't get morally outraged at other people eating chocolate icecreams, even when they personally don't like chocolate icecreams, because they can understand that's a strictly personal preference. If they believe it to be more than personal preference and make it into e.g. "divine commandment" or "natural law", then moral outrage can occur. That morality is a subjective attempt at objectivity explains many of the confusions people have about it.
0[anonymous]10y
The ice cream example is bad because the consequences are purely internal to the person consuming the ice cream. What if the chocolate ice cream was made with slave labour? Many people would then object to you buying it on moral grounds. Eliezer has produced an argument I find convincing that morality is the back propagation of preference to the options of an intermediate choice. That is to say, it is "bad" to eat chocolate ice cream because it economically supports slavers, and I prefer a world without slavery. But if I didn't know about the slave-labour ice cream factory, my preference would be that all-things-being-equal you get to make your own choices about what you eat, and therefore I prefer that you choose (and receive) the one you want, which is your determination to make, not mine. Do you agree with EY's essay on the nature of right-ness which I linked to?
0cousin_it10y
That doesn't seem to be required for Eliezer's argument... I guess the relevant question is, do you think FAI will need to treat morality differently from other preferences?
0ArisKatsaris10y
I would prefer a AI that followed my extrapolated preferences, than a AI that followed my morality. But a AI that followed my morality would be morally superior to an AI that followed my extrapolated preferences. If you don't understand the distinction I'm making above, consider a case of the AI having to decide whether to save my own child vs saving a thousand random other children. I'd prefer the former, but I believe the latter would be the morally superior choice. Is that idea really so hard to understand? Would you dismiss the distinction I'm making as merely colloquial language?
2[anonymous]10y
Wow there is so much wrapped up in this little consideration. The heart of the issue is that we (by which I mean you, but I share your delimma) have truly conflicting preferences. Honestly I think you should not be afraid to say that saving your own child is the moral thing to do. And you don't have to give excuses either - it's not that “if everyone saved their own child, then everyone's child will be looked after” or anything like that. No, the desire to save your own child is firmly rooted in our basic drives and preferences, enough so that we can go quite far in calling it a basic foundational moral axiom. It's not actually axiomatic, but we can safely treat it as such. At the same time we have a basic preference to seek social acceptance and find commonality with the people we let into our lives. This drives us to want outcomes that are universally or at least most-widely acceptable, and seek moral frameworks like utilitarianism which lead to these outcomes. Usually this drive is secondary to self-serving preferences for most people, and that is OK. For some reason you've called making decisions in favor of self-serving drives "preferences" and decisions in favor of social drives "morality." But the underlying mechanism is the same. "But wait, if I choose self-serving drives over social conformity, doesn't that lead to me to make the decision to save one life in exclusion to 1000 others?" Yes, yes it does. This massive sub-thread started with me objecting to the idea that some "friendly" AI somewhere could derive morality experimentally from my preferences or the collective preferences of humankind, make it consistent, apply the result universally, and that I'd be OK with that outcome. But that cannot work because there is not, and cannot be a universal morality that satisfies everyone - every one of those thousand other children have parents that want their kid to survive and would see your child dead if need be.
1ArisKatsaris10y
What do you mean by "should not"? What do you mean by "OK"? Show me the neurological studies that prove it. Yes, and yet if none of the children were mine, and if I wasn't involved in the situation at all, I would say "save the 1000 children rather than the 1". And if someone else, also not personally involved, could make the choice and chose to flip a coin instead in order to decide, I'd be morally outraged at them. You can now give me a bunch of reasons of why this is just preference, while at the same time EVERYTHING about it (how I arrive to my judgment, how I feel about the judgment of others) makes it a whole distinct category of its own. I'm fine with abolishing useless categories when there's no meaningful distinction, but all you people should stop trying to abolish categories where there pretty damn obviously IS one.
1blacktrance10y
I suspect that he means something like 'Even though utilitarianism (on LW) and altruism (in general) are considered to be what morality is, you should not let that discourage you from asserting that selfishly saving your own child is the right thing to do". (Feel free to correct me if I'm wrong.)
1[anonymous]10y
Yes that is correct.
0ArisKatsaris10y
So you explained "should not" by using a sentence that also has "should not" in it.
0blacktrance10y
I hope it's a more clear "should not".
0[anonymous]10y
I've explained to you twice now how the two underlying mechanisms are unified, and pointed to Eliezer's quite good explanation on the matter. I don't see the need to go through that again.
0cousin_it10y
If you were offered a bunch of AIs with equivalent power, but following different mixtures of your moral and non-moral preferences, which one would you run? (I guess you're aware of the standard results saying a non-stupid AI must follow some one-dimensional utility function, etc.)
0ArisKatsaris10y
I guess whatever ratio of my moral and non-moral preferences best represents their effect on my volition.
0TheOtherDave10y
My related but different thoughts here. In particular, I don't agree that emotions like moral outrage and approval are impersonal, though I agree that we often justify those emotions using impersonal language and beliefs.
0ArisKatsaris10y
I didn't say that moral outrage and approval are impersonal. Obviously nothing that a person does can truly be "impersonal". But it may be an attempt at impersonality. The attempt itself provides a direction that significantly differentiates between moral preferences and non-moral preferences.
0TheOtherDave10y
I didn't mean some idealized humanly-unrealizable notion of impersonality, I meant the thing we ordinarily use "impersonal" to mean when talking about what humans do.
0Kawoomba10y
Ditto. Cousin Itt, 'tis a hairy topic, so you're uniquely "suited" to offer strands of insights: For all the supposedly hard and confusing concepts out there, few have such an obvious answer as the supposed dichotomy between "morality" and "utility function". This in itself is troubling, as too-easy-to-come-by answers trigger the suspicion that I myself am subject to some sort of cognitive error. Many people I deem to be quite smart would disagree with you and I, on a question whose answer is pretty much inherent in the definition of the term "utility function" encompassing preferences of any kind, leaving no space for some holier-than-thou universal (whether human-universal, or "optimal", or "to be aspired to", or "neurotypical", or whatever other tortured notions I've had to read) moral preferences which are somehow separate. Why do you reckon that other (or otherwise?) smart people come to different conclusions on this?
2cousin_it10y
I guess they have strong intuitions saying that objective morality must exist, and aren't used to solving or dismissing philosophical problems by asking "what would be useful for building FAI?" From most other perspectives, the question does look open.
0TheAncientGeek10y
Moral preferences don't have to be separate to be disinct, they can be a subset. "Morality is either all your prefences, or none of your prefernces" is a false dichotomy.
1Kawoomba10y
Edit: Of course you can choose to call a subset of your preferences "moral", but why would that make them "special", or more worthy of consideration than any other "non-moral" preferences of comparative weight?
0ArisKatsaris10y
The "moral" subset of people's preferences has certain elements that differentiate it like e.g. an attempt at universalization.
0Kawoomba10y
Attempt at universalization, isn't that a euphemism for proselytizing? Why would [an agent whose preferences do not much intersect with the "moral" preferences of some group of agents] consider such attempts at universalization any different from other attempts of other-optimizing, which is generally a hostile act to be defended against?
1ArisKatsaris10y
No, people attempt to 'proselytize' their non-moral preferences too. If I attempt to share my love of My Little Pony, that doesn't mean I consider it a need for you to also love it. Even if I preferred it for you share my love of it, it would still not be a moral obligation on your part. By universalization I didn't mean any action done after the adoption of the moral preference in question, I meant the criterion that serves to label it as a 'moral injuction' in the first place. If your brain doesn't register it as an instruction defensible by something other that your personal preferences, if it doesn't register it as a universal principle, it doesn't register as a moral instruction in the first place.
0Kawoomba10y
What do you mean by "universal"? For any such "universally morally correct preference", what about the potentially infinite number of other agents not sharing it? Please explain.
1ArisKatsaris10y
I've already given an example above: In a choice between saving my own child and saving a thousand other children, let's say I prefer saving my child. "Save my child" is a personal preference, and my brain recognizes it as such. "Save the highest number of children" can be considered a impersonal/universal instruction. If I wanted to follow my preferences but still nonetheless claim moral perfection, I could attempt to say that the rule is really "Every parent should seek to save their own child" -- and I might even convince myself to the same. But I wouldn't say that the moral principle is really "Everyone should first seek to save the child of Aris Katsaris", even if that's what I really really prefer. EDIT TO ADD: Also far from a recipe for war, it seem to me that morality is the opposite: an attempt at reconciling different preferences, so that people only become hostile towards only those people that don't follow a much more limited set of instructions, rather than anything in the entire set of their preferences.
0Kawoomba10y
Why would you try to do away with your personal preferences, what makes them inferior (edit: speaking as one specific agent) to some blended average case of myriads of other humans? (Is it because of your mirror neurons? ;-) Being you, you should strive towards that which you "really really prefer". If a particular "moral principle" (whatever you choose to label as such) is suboptimal for you (and you're not making choices for all of mankind, TDT or no), why would you endorse/glorify a suboptimal course of action? That's called a compromise for mutual benefit, and it shifts as the group of agents changes throughout history. There's no need to elevate the current set of "mostly mutually beneficial actions" above anything but the fleeting accomodations and deals between roving tribes that they are. Best looked at through the prism of game theory.
2ArisKatsaris10y
Being me, I prefer what I "really really prefer". You've not indicated why I "should" strive towards that which I "really really prefer". When you are asking whether I "would" do something, is different than when you ask whether I "should" do something. Morality helps drive my volition, but it isn't the sole decider. If you want to claim that that's the historical/evolutionary reasons that the moral instinct evolved, I agree. If you want to argue that that's what morality is, then I disagree. Morality can drive someone to sacrifice their lives for others, so it's obviously NOT always a "compromise for mutual benefit".
0Kawoomba10y
Everybody defines his/her own variant of what they call "morality", "right", "wrong", I simply suspect that the genesis of the whole "universally good" brouhaha stems from evolutionary evolved applied game theory, the "good of the tribe". Which is fine. Luckily we could now move past being bound by such homo erectus historic constraints. That doesn't mean we stop cooperating, we just start being more analytic about it. That would satisfy my preferences, that would be good. Well, if the agent prefers sacrificing their existence for others, then doing so would be to their own benefit, no?
0ArisKatsaris10y
sigh. Yes, given such a moral preference already in place, it somehow becomes to any person's "benefit" (for a rather useless definition of "benefit") to follow their morality. But you previously argued that morality is a "compromise for mutual benefit", so it would follow that it only is created in order to help partially satisfy some preexisting "benefit". That benefit can't be the mere satisfaction of itself.
0Kawoomba10y
I've called "an attempt at reconciling different preferences" a "compromise for mutual benefit". Various people call various actions "moral". The whole notion probably stems from cooperation within a tribe being of overall benefit, evolutionary speaking, but I don't claim at all that "any moral action is a compromise for mutual benefit". Who knows who calls what moral. The whole confused notion should be done away with, game theory ain't be needing no "moral". What I am claiming is that there is non-trivial definition of morality (that is, other than "good = following your preferences") which can convince a perfectly rational agent to change its own utility function to adopt more such "moral preferences". Change, not merely relabel. The perfectly instrumentally rational agent does that which its utility functions wants. How would you even convince it otherwise? Hopefully this clarifies things a bit.
0ArisKatsaris10y
My own feeling is that if you stop being so dismissive, you'll actually make some progress towards understanding "who calls what moral". Sure, unless someone already has a desire to be moral, talk of morality will be of no concern to them. I agree with that.
0Kawoomba10y
Edit: Because the scenario clarifies my position, allow me to elaborate on it: Consider a perfectly rational agent. Its epistemic rationality is flawless, that is its model of its environment is impeccable. Its instrumental rationality, without peer. That is, it is really, really good at satisfying its preferences. It encounters a human. The human talks about what the human wants, some of which the human calls "virtuous" and "good" and is especially adamant about. You and I, alas, are far from that perfectly rational agent. As you say, if you already have a desire to enact some actions you call morally good, then you don't need to "change" your utility function, you already have some preferences you call moral. The question is for those who do not have a desire to do what you call moral (or who insist on their own definition, as nearly everybody does), on what grounds should they even start caring about what you call "moral"? As you say, they shouldn't, unless it benefits them in some way (e.g. makes their mammal brains feel good about being a Good Person (tm)). So what's the hubbub?
2ArisKatsaris10y
I've already said that unless someone already desires to be moral, babbling about morality won't do anything for them. I didn't say it "shouldn't" (please stop confusing these two verbs) But then you also seem to conflate this with a different issue -- of what to do with someone who does want to be moral, but understands morality differently than I do. Which is an utterly different issue. First of all people often have different definitions to describe the same concepts -- that's because quite clearly the human brain doesn't work with definitions, but with fuzzy categorizations and instinctive "I know it when I see it" which we then attempt to make into definition when we attempt to communicate said concepts to others. But the very fact we use the same word "morality", means we identify some common elements of what "morality" means. If we didn't mean anything similar to each other, we wouldn't be using the same word to describe it. I find that supposedly different moralities seem to have some very common elements to them -- e.g. people tend to prefer that other people be moral. People generally agree that moral behaviour by everyone leads to happier, healthier societies. They tend to disagree about what that behaviour is, but the effects they describe tend to be common. I might disagree with Kasparov about what the best next chess move would be, and that doesn't mean it's simply a matter of preference - we have a common understanding that the best moves are the ones that lead to an advantageous position. So, though we disagree on the best move, we have an agreement on the results of the best move.
1Kawoomba10y
What you did say was "of no concern", and "won't do anything for them", which (unless you assume infinite resources) translates to "shouldn't". It's not "conflating". Let's stay constructive. Such as in Islamic societies. Wrong fuzzy morality cloud? Sure. What it does not mean, however, is that in between these fuzzily connected concepts is some actual, correct, universal notion of morality. Or would you take some sort of "mean", which changes with time and social conventions? If everybody had some vague ideas about games called chess_1 to chess_N, with N being in the millions, that would not translate to some universally correct and acceptable definition of the game of chess. Fuzzy human concepts can't be assuemd to yield some iron-clad core just beyond our grasp, if only we could blow the fuzziness away. People for the most part agree what to classify as a chair. That doesn't mean there is some ideal chair we can strive for. When checking for best moves in pre-defined chess there are definite criteria. There are non-arbitrary metrics to measure "best" by. Kasparov's proposed chess move can be better than your proposed chess move, using clear and obvious metrics. The analogy doesn't pan out: With the fuzzy clouds of what's "moral", an outlier could -- maybe -- say "well, I'm clearly an outlier", but that wouldn't necessitate any change, because there is no objective metric to go by. Preferences aren't subject to Aumann's, or to a tyranny of the (current societal) majority.
0ArisKatsaris10y
No, Islamic societies suffer from the delusion that Allah exists. If Allah existed (an omnipotent creature that punishes you horribly if you fail to obey Quran's commandments), then Islamic societies would have the right idea. Remove their false belief in Allah, and I fail to see any great moral difference between our society and Islamic ones.
0blacktrance10y
You're treating desires as simpler than they often are in humans. Someone can have no desire to be moral because they have a mistaken idea of what morality is or requires, are internally inconsistent, or have mistaken beliefs about how states of the world map to their utility function - to name a few possibilities. So, if someone told me that they have no desire to do what I call moral, I would assume that they have mistaken beliefs about morality, for reasons like the ones I listed. If there were beings that had all the relevant information, were internally consistent, and used words with the same sense that I use them, and they still had no desire to do what I call moral, then there would be on way for me to convince them, but this doesn't describe humans.
0Kawoomba10y
So not doing what you call moral implies "mistaken beliefs"? How, why? Does that mean, then, that unfriendly AI cannot exist? Or is it just that a superior agent which does not follow your morality is somehow faulty? It might not care much. (Neither should fellow humans who do not adhere to your 'correct' set of moral actions. Just saying "everybody needs to be moral" doesn't change any rational agent's preferences. Any reasoning?)
0blacktrance10y
For a human, yes. Explaining why this is the case would require several Main-length posts about ethical egoism, human nature and virtue ethics, and other related topics. It's a lot to go into. I'm happy to answer specific questions, but a proper answer would require describing much of (what I believe to be) morality. I will attempt to give what must be a very incomplete answer. It's not about what I call moral, but what is actually moral. There is a variety of reasons (upbringing, culture, bad habits, mental problems, etc) that can cause people to have mistaken beliefs about what's moral. Much of what is moral is because of what's good for a person because of human nature. People's preferences can be internally inconsistent, and actually are inconsistent when they ignore or don't fully integrate this part of their preferences. An AI doesn't have human nature, so it can be internally consistent while not doing what's moral, but I believe that if a human is immoral, it's a case of internal inconsistency (or lack of knowledge).
0Kawoomba10y
Is it something about the human brain? But brains evolve over time, both from genetic and from environmental influences. Worse, different human subpopulations often evolve (slightly) different paths! So which humans do you claim as a basis from which to define the one and only correct "human morality"?
0blacktrance10y
Despite the differences, there is a common human nature. There is a Psychological Unity of Humankind.
0Kawoomba10y
Noting that humans share many characteristics is an 'is', not an 'ought'. Also, this "common human nature" as exemplified throughout history is ... non too pretty as a base for some "universal mandatory morality". Yes, compared to random other mind designs pulled from mindspace, all human minds appear very similar. Doesn't imply at all that they all should strive to be similar, or to follow a similar 'codex'. Where do you get that from? It's like religion, minus god. What you're saying that if you want to be a real human, you have to be moral? What species am I, then? Declaring that most humans have two legs doesn't mean that every human should strive to have exactly two legs. Can't derive an 'ought' from an 'is'.
0blacktrance10y
Yes, human nature is an "is". It's important because it shapes people's preferences, or, more relevantly, it shapes what makes people happy. It's not that people should strive to have two legs, but that they already have two legs, but are ignoring them. There is no obligation to be human - but you're already human, and thus human nature is already part of you. No, I'm saying that because you are human, it is inconsistent of you to not want to be moral.
0Kawoomba10y
I feel like the discussion is stalling at this point. It comes down to you saying "if you're human you should want to be moral, because humans should be moral", which to me is as non-sequitur as it gets. Except if my utility function doesn't encompass what you think is "moral" and I'm human, then "following human morality" doesn't quite seem to be a prerequisite to be a "true" human, no?
0blacktrance10y
No, that isn't what I'm saying. I'm saying that if you're human, you should want to be moral, because wanting to be moral follows from the desires of a human with consistent preferences, due in part to human nature. Then I dispute that your utility function is what you think it is.
0Kawoomba10y
The error as I see it is that "human nature", whatever you see as such, is a statement about similarities, it isn't a statement about how things should be. It's like saying "a randomly chosen positive natural number is really big, so all numbers should be really big". How do you see that differently? We've already established that agents can have consistent preferences without adhering to what you think of as "universal human morality". Child soldiers are human. Their preferences sure can be brutal, but they can be as internally consistent or inconsistent as those of anyone else. I sure would like to change their preferences, because I'd prefer for them to be different, not because some 'idealised human spirit' / 'psychic unity of mankind' ideal demands so. Proof by demonstration? Well, lock yourself in a cellar with only water and send me a key, I'll send it back FedEx with instructions to set you free, after a week. Would that suffice? I'd enjoy proving that I know my own utility function better than you know my utility function (now that would be quite weird), I wouldn't enjoy the suffering. Who knows, might even be healthy overall.
2Jiro10y
You can't randomly choose a positive natural number using an even distribution. If you use an uneven distribution, whether the result is likely to be big depends on how your distribution compares to your definition of "big".
0Kawoomba10y
Choose from those positive numbers that a C++ int variable can contain, or any other* non-infinite subset of positive natural numbers, then. The point is the observation of "most numbers need more than 1 digit to be expressed" not implying in any way some sort of "need" for the 1-digit numbers to "change", to satisfy the number fairy, or some abstract concept thereof. * (For LW purposes: Any other? No, not any other. Choose one with a cardinality of at least 10^6. Heh.)
0blacktrance10y
It is a statement about similarities, but it's about a similarity that shapes what people should do. I don't know how I can explain it without repeating myself, but I'll try. For an analogy, let's consider beings that aren't humans. Paperclip maximizers, for example. Except these paperclip maximizers aren't AIs, but a species that somehow evolved biologically. They're not perfect reasoners and can have internally inconsistent preferences. These paperclip maximizers can prefer to do something that isn't paperclip-maximizing, even though that is contrary to their nature - that is, if they were to maximize paperclips, they would prefer it to whatever they were doing earlier. One day, a paperclip maximizer who is maximizing paperclips tells his fellow clippies, "You should maximize paperclips, because if you did, you would prefer to, as it is your nature". This clippy's statement is true - the clippies' nature is such that if they maximized clippies, they would prefer it to other goals. So, regardless of what other clippies are actually doing, the utility-maximizing thing for them to do would be to maximize paperclips. So it is with humans. Upon discovering/realizing/deriving what is moral and consistently acting/being moral, the agent would find that being moral is better than the alternative. This is in part due to human nature. Agents, yes. Humans, no. Just like the clippies can't have consistent preferences if they're not maximizing paperclips. What would that prove? Also, I don't claim that I know the entirety of your utility function better than you do - you know much better than I do what kind of ice cream you prefer, what TV shows you like to watch, etc. But those have little to do with human nature in the sense that we're talking about it here.
0Kawoomba10y
A clippy which isn't maximizing paperclips is not a clippy. A human which isn't adhering to your moral codex is still a human. That my utility function includes something which you'd probably consider immoral.
-3blacktrance10y
It's a clippy because it would maximize paperclips if it had consistent preferences and sufficient knowledge. I don't dispute that this is possible. What I dispute is that your utility function would contain that if you were internally consistent (and had knowledge of what being moral is like).
3Kawoomba10y
The desires of an agent are defined by its preferences. "This is a paperclip maximizer which does not want to maximize paperclips" is a contradiction in terms. And what do you mean by "consistent", do you mean "consistent with 'human nature'? Who cares? Or consistent within themselves? Highly doubtful, what would internal consistency have to do with being an altruist? If there's anything which is characteristic of "human nature", it is the inconsistency of their preferences. A human which doesn't share what you think of as "correct" values (may I ask, not disparagingly, are you religious?) is still a human. An unusual one, maybe (probably not), but an agent not in "need" of any change towards more "moral" values. Stalin may have been happy the way he was. Because of the warm fuzzies? The social signalling? Is being moral awsome, or deeply fulfilling? Are you internally consistent ... ?
2blacktrance10y
Call it a quasi-paperclip maximizer, then. I'm not interested in disputing definitions. Whatever you call it, it's a being whose preferences are not necessarily internally consistent, but when they are, it prefers to maximize paperclips. When its preferences are internally inconsistent, it may prefer to do things and have goals other than maximizing paperclips. There's no necessary connection between the two, but I'm not equating morality and altruism. Morality is what one should do and/or how one should be, which need not be altruistic. Humans can have incorrect values and still be human, but in that case they are internally inconsistent., because of the preferences they have due to human nature. I'm not saying that humans should strive to have human nature, I'm saying that they already have it. I doubt that Stalin was happy - just look at how paranoid he was. And no, I'm not religious, and have never been. Yes to the first and third questions, Being moral is awesome and fulfilling. It makes you feel happier, more fulfilled, more stable, and similar feelings. It doesn't guarantee happiness, but it contributes to it both directly (being moral feels good) and indirectly (it helps you make good decisions). It makes you stronger and more resilient (once you've internalized it fully). It's hard to describe beyond that, but good feels good (TVTropes warning). I think I'm internally consistent. I've been told that I am. It's unlikely that I'm perfectly consistent, but whatever inconsistencies I have are probably minor. I'm open to having them addressed, whatever they are.
3Jiro10y
Claiming that Stalin wasn't happy sounds like a variation of sour grapes where not only can you not be as successful as him, it would be actively uncomfortable for you to believe that someone who lacks compassion can be happy, so you claim that he's not. It's true he was paranoid but it's also true that in the real world, there are tradeoffs and you don't see people becoming happy with no downsides whatsoever--claiming that this disqualifies them from being called happy eviscerates the word of meaning. I'm also not convinced that Stalin's "paranoia" was paranoia (it seems rationa for someone who doesn't care about the welfare of others and can increase his safety by instilling fear and treating everyone as enemies to do so). I would also caution against assuming that since Stalin's paranoia is prominent enough for you to have heard of it, it's too big a deal for him to have been happy--it's promiment enough for you to have heard of it because it was a big deal to the people affected by it, which is unrelated to how much it affected his happiness.
2blacktrance10y
Stalin was paranoid even by the standards of major world leaders. Khrushchev wasn't so paranoid, for example. Stalin saw enemies behind every corner. That is not a happy existence.
[-]Jiro10y150

Khruschev was deposed. Stalin stayed dictator until he died of natural causes. That suggests that Khruschev wasn't paranoid enough, while Stalin was appropriately paranoid.

Seeing enemies around every corner meant that sometimes he saw enemies that weren't there, but it was overall adaptive because it resulted in him not getting defeated by any of the enemies that actually existed. (Furthermore, going against nonexistent enemies can be beneficial insofar as the ruthlessness in going after them discourages real enemies.)

Stalin saw enemies behind every corner. That is not a happy existence.

How does the last sentence follow from the previous one? It's certainly not as happy an existence as it would have been if he had no enemies, but as I pointed out, nobody's perfectly happy. There are always tradeoffs and we don't claim that the fact that someone had to do something to gain his happiness automatically makes that happiness fake.

3Said Achmiz10y
Stalin's paranoia, and the actions he took as a result, also created enemies, thus becoming a partly self-fulfilling attitude.
0A1987dM10y
You do see people becoming happy with fewer downsides than others, though.
1hairyfigment10y
Stalin refused to believe Hitler would attack him, probably since that would be suicidally stupid on the attacker's part. Was he paranoid, or did he update?
1Nornagest10y
I'm not sure "preference" is a powerful enough term to capture an agent's true goals, however defined. Consider any of the standard preference reversals: a heavy cigarette smoker, for example, might prefer to buy and consume their next pack in a Near context, yet prefer to quit in a Far. The apparent contradiction follows quite naturally from time discounting, yet neither interpretation of the person's preferences is obviously wrong.
0Kawoomba10y
I've seen it used as shorthand for "utility function", saving 5 keystrokes. That was the intended use here. Point taken, alternate phrasings welcome.
-1nshepperd10y
That would only prove that you think you want to do that. The issue is that what you think you want and what you actually want do not generally coincide, because of imperfect self-knowledge, bounded thinking time, etc. I don't know about child soldiers, but it's fairly common for amateur philosophers to argue themselves into thinking they "should" be perfectly selfish egoists, or hedonistic utilitarians, because logic or rationality demands it. They are factually mistaken, and to the extent that they think they want to be egoists or hedonists, their "preferences" are inconsistent, because if they noticed the logical flaw in their argument they would change their minds.
1Kawoomba10y
Isn't that when I throw up my arms and say "congratulations, your hypothesis is unfalsifiable, the dragon is permeable to fluor". What experimental setup would you suggest? Would you say any statement about one's preferences is moot? It seems that we're always under bounded thinking time constraints. Maybe the paperclipper really wants to help humankind and be moral, and mistakingly thinks otherwise. Who would know, it optimized its own actions under resource constraints, and then there's the 'Löbstacle' to consider. Is saying "I like vanilla ice cream" FAI-complete and must never be uttered or relied upon by anyone? Or argue themselves into thinking that there is some subset of preferences such every other (human?) agent should voluntarily choose to adopt them, against their better judgment (edit; as it contradicts what they (perceive, after thorough introspection) as their own preferences)? You can add "objective moralists" to the list. What would it be that is present in every single human's brain architecture throughout human history that would be compatible with some fixed ordering over actions, called "morally good"? (Otherwise you'd have your immediate counterexample.) The notion seems so obviously ill-defined and misguided (hence my first comment asking Cousin_It). It's fine (to me) to espouse preferences that aim to change other humans (say, towards being more altruistic, or towards being less altruistic, or whatever), but to appeal to some objective guiding principle based on "human nature" (which constantly evolves in different strands) or some well-sounding ev-psych applause-light is just a new substitute for the good old Abrahamic heavenly father.
0nshepperd10y
I wouldn't say any of those things. Obviously paperclippers don't "really want to help humankind", because they don't have any human notion of morality built-in in the first place. Statements like "I like vanilla ice cream" are also more trustworthy on account of being a function of directly observable things like how you feel when you eat it. The only point I'm trying to make here is that it is possible to be mistaken about your own utility function. It's entirely consistent for the vast majority of humans to have a large shared portion of their built-in utility function (built-in by their genes), even though many of them seemingly want to do bad things, and that's because humans are easily confused and not automatically self-aware.
0Kawoomba10y
For sure. I'd agree if humans were like dishwashers. There are templates for dishwashers, ways they are supposed to work. If you came across a broken dishwasher, there could be a case for the dishwasher to be repaired, to go back to "what it's supposed to be". However, that is because there is some external authority (exasparated humans who want to fix their damn dishwasher, dirty dishes are piling up) conceiving of and enforcing such a purpose. The fact that genes and the environment shape utility functions in similar ways is a description, not a prescription. It would not be a case for any "broken" human to go back to "what his genes would want him to be doing". Just like it wouldn't be a case against brain uploading. Some of the discussion seems to me like saying that "deep down in every flawed human, there is 'a figure of light', in our community 'a rational agent following uniform human values with slight deviations accounting for ice-cream taste', we just need to dig it up". There is only your brain. With its values. There is no external standard to call its values flawed. There are external standards (rationality = winning) to better its epistemic and instrumental rationality, but those can help the serial killer and the GiveWell activist equally. (Also, both of those can be 'mistaken' about their values.)
0TheAncientGeek10y
1. If you have a preference for morality, being moral is not doing away with that prrefence: it is allowing your altruistic prefences to override your selfish ones. 2. You may be on the receving end of someone else's self sacrifice at some point
0Kawoomba10y
1. Certainly, but in that case your preference for the moral action is your personal preference, which is your 'selfish' preference. No conflict there. You should always do that which maximizes your utility function. If you call that moral, we're in full agreement. If your utility function is maximized by caring about someone else's utility function, go for it. I do, too. 2. That's nice. Why would that cause me to do things which I do not overall prefer to do? Or do you say you always value that which you call moral the most?
0ArisKatsaris10y
I can make a quite clear distinction between my preferences relating to an apersonal loving-kindness towards the universe in general, and the preferences that center around my personal affections and likings. You keep trying to do away with a distinction that has huge predictive ability: a distinction that helps determine what people do, why they do it, how they feel about doing it, and how they feel after doing it. If your model of people's psychology conflates morality and non-moral preferences, your model will be accurate only for the most amoral of people.
0blacktrance10y
Morality is a somewhat like chess in this respect - morality:optimal play::satisfying your preferences:winning. To simplify their preferences a bit, chess players want to win, but no individual chess player would claim that all other chess players should play poorly so he can win.
0Kawoomba10y
That's explained simply by 'winning only against bad players' not being the most valued component of their preferences, preferring 'wins when the other player did his/her very best and still lost' instead. Am I missing your point?
0blacktrance10y
Sorry, I didn't explain well. To approach the explanation from different angles: * Even if all chess players wanted was to win, it would still be incorrect for them to claim that playing poorly is the correct way to play. Just like when I'm hungry, I want to eat, but I don't claim that strangers should feed me for free. * Consider the prisoners' dilemma, as analyzed traditionally. Each prisoner wants the other to cooperate, but neither can claim that the other should cooperate.
0Kawoomba10y
Incorrect because that's not what the winning player would prefer. You don't claim that strangers should feed you because that's what you prefer. It's part of your preferences. Some of your preferences can rely on satisfying someone else's preferences. Such altruistic preferences are still your own preferences. Helping members of your tribe you care about. Cooperating within your tribe, enjoying the evolutionary triggered endorphins. You're probably thinking that considering external preferences and incorporating them in your own utility function is a core principle of being "morally right". Is that so? So the core disagreement (I think): Take an agent with a given set of preferences. Some of these may include the preferences of others, some may not. On what basis should that agent modify its preferences to include more preferences of others, i.e. to be "more moral"? So you can imagine yourself in someone else's position, then say "What B should do from A's perspective" is different from "What B should do from B's perspective". Then you can enter all sorts of game theoretic considerations. Where does morality come in?
1blacktrance10y
There is no "What B should do from A's perspective", from A's perspective there is only "What I want B to do". It's not a "should". Similarly, the chess player wants his opponent to lose, and I want people to feed me, but neither of those are "should"s. "Should"s are only from an agent's own perspective applied to themselves, or from something simulating that perspective (such as modeling the other player in a game). "What B should do from B's perspective" is equivalent to "What B should do".
0TheAncientGeek10y
The key issue is that, whilst morality is not tautologously the same as preferences, a morally right action is, tautologously, what you should do. So it is difficult to see on what grounds Mark can object to the FAIs wishes: if it tells him something is mortally right that is what he should do. And he can't have his own separate morality, because the idea is incoherent.
0ArisKatsaris10y
A distinction to be made: Mark can wish differently than the AI wishes, Mark can't morally object to the AI's wishes (if the AI follows morality). Exactly because morality is not the same as preferences.
0Kawoomba10y
You can call a subset of your preferences moral, that's fine. Say, eating chocolate icecream, or helping a starving child. Let's take a randomly chosen "morally right action" A. That, given your second paragraph, would have to be a preference which, what, maximizes Mark's utility, regardless of what the rest of his utility function actually looks like? It seems to be trivial to construct a utility function (given any such action A) such as that doing A does not maximize said utility function. Give Mark a such a utility function and you got yourself a reductio ad absurdum. So, if you define a subset of preferences named "morally right" thus that any such action needs to maximize (edit: or even 'not minimize') an arbitrary utility function, then obviously that subset is empty.
0TheAncientGeek10y
If Mark is capable of acting morally, he would have a preference for moral action which is strong enough to override other preferences. However,t hat is not really the point. Even if he is too weak-willed to do what the FAI says, he has no grounds to object to the FAI. I can't see how that amount to more than the observation that not every agetn is capable of acting morally. Ho hum. I don't see why. An agent should want to do what is morally right, but that doesn't mean an agent would want to. Their utility funciton might not allow them. But how could they object to be told what is right? The fault, surely, lies in themselves.
0Kawoomba10y
They can object because their preferences are defined by their utility function, full stop. That's it. They are not "at fault", or "in error", for not adopting some other preferences that some other agents deem to be "morally correct". They are following their programming, as you follow yours. Different groups of agents share different parts of their preferences, think Venn diagram. If the oracle tells you "this action maximizes your own utility function, you cannot understand how", then yes the agent should follow the advice. If the oracle told an agent "do this, it is morally right", the non-confused agent would ask "do you mean it maximizes my own utility function?". If yes, "thanks, I'll do that", if no "go eff yourself!". You can call an agent "incapable of acting morally" because you don't like what it's doing, it needn't care. It might just as well call you "incapable of acting morally" if your circles of supposedly "morally correct actions" don't intersect.
0TheOtherDave10y
I can't speak for cousin_it, natch, but for my own part I think it has to do with mutually exclusive preferences vs orthogonal/mutually reinforcing preferences. Using moral language is a way of framing a preference as mutually exclusive with other preferences. That is... if you want A and I want B, and I believe the larger system allows (Kawoomba gets A AND Dave gets B), I'm more likely to talk about our individual preferences. If I don't think that's possible, I'm more likely to use universal language ("moral," "optimal," "right," etc.), in order to signal that there's a conflict to be resolved. (Well, assuming I'm being honest.) For example, "You like chocolate, I like vanilla" does not signal a conflict; "Chocolate is wrong, vanilla is right" does.
0TheAncientGeek10y
Why stop at connotation and signalling? If there is a non-empty set of preferences whose satistfaction is inclined to lead to conflict, and a non-empty set of preferences that can be satisfied withotu conflict, then "morally relevant prefernece" can denote the members of the first set...which is not idenitcal to the set of all preferences.
0Kawoomba10y
For any such preference, you can immediately provide a utility function such that the corresponding agent would be very unhappy about that preference, and would give its life to prevent it. Or do you mean "a set of preferences the implementation of which would on balance benefit the largest amount of agents the most"? That would change as the set of agents changes, so does the "correct" morality change too, then? Also, why should I or anyone else particular care about about such preferences (however you define them), especially as the "on average" doesn't benefit me? Is it because evolutionary speaking, that's how what evolved? What our mirror neurons lead us towards? Wouldn't that just be a case of the naturalistic fallacy?
0TheAncientGeek10y
Sure. So what? Kids don't like teachers and criminals don't like the police..but they can't object to them, because "entitiy X is stopping from doing bad things and making me do good things" is no (rational, adult) objection. If being moral increases your utility, it increases your utility -- what other sense of "benefitting me" is there?
0blacktrance10y
If utility is the satisfaction of preferences, and you can have preferences that don't benefit you (such as doing heroin), increasing your utility doesn't necessarily benefit you.
0TheAncientGeek10y
If you can get utility out of paperclips, why can't you get it out of heorin? You're surely not saying that there is some sort of Objective utility that everyone ought to have in their UF's?
0blacktrance10y
You can get utility out of heroin if you prefer to use it, which is an example of "benefiting me" and utility not being synonymous. I don't think there's any objective utility function for all conceivable agents, but as you get more specific in the kinds of agents you consider (i.e. humans), there are commonalities in their utility functions, due to human nature. Also, there are sometimes inconsistencies between (for lack of better terminology) what people prefer and what they really prefer - that is, people can act and have a preference to act in ways that, if they were to act differently, they would prefer the different act.
0Kawoomba10y
(Kids - teachers), (criminals - police), so is "morally correct" defined by the most powerful agents, then? And if being moral (whatever it may mean) does not?
-2TheAncientGeek10y
Adult, rational objections are objections that other agents might feel impelled to do somehting about, and so are not just based on "I don't like it"."I don't like it" is no objectio to "you should do your homework", etc. Then you would belong to the set of Immoral Agents, AKA Bad People.
0Kawoomba10y
"You should do your homework (... because it is in your own long-term best interest, you just can't see that yet)" is in the interest of the kid, cf. an FAI telling you to do an action because it is in your interest. "You should jump out that window (... because it amuses me / because I call that morally good)" is not in your interest, you should not do that. In such cases, "I don't like that" is the most pertinent objection and can stand all on its own. Boo bad people! What if we encountered aliens with "immoral" preferences?
1TheOtherDave10y
For my own part: denotationally, yes, I would understand "Do you prefer (that Dave eat) chocolate or vanilla ice cream?" and "Do you consider (Dave eating) chocolate ice cream or vanilla as the morally superior flavor for (Dave eating) ice cream?" as asking the same question. Connotationally, of course, the latter has all kinds of (mostly ill-defined) baggage the former doesn't.
0TheAncientGeek10y
0Pentashagon10y
My point was that trying to use a provably-boxed AI to do anything useful would probably not work, including trying to design unboxed FAI, not that we should design boxed FAI. I may have been pessemistic, see Stuart Armstrong's proposal of reduced impact AI which sounds very similar to provably boxed AI but which might be used for just about everything including designing a FAI.
-1Houshalter11y
I think we might have different definitions of a boxed-AI. An AI that is literally not allowed to interact with the world at all isn't terribly useful and it sounds like a problem at least as hard as all other kinds of FAI. I just mean a normal dangerous AI that physically can't interact with the outside world. Importantly it's goal is to provably give the best output it possibly can if you give it a problem. So it won't hide nanotech in your cure for alzheimers because that would be a less fit and more complicated solution than a simple chemical compound (you would have to judge solutions based on complexity though and verify them by a human or in a simulation first just in case.) I don't think most computers today have anywhere near enough processing power to simulate a full human brain. A human down to the molecular level is entirely out of the question. An AI on a modern computer, if it's smarter than human at all, will get there by having faster serial processing or more efficient algorithms, not because it has massive raw computational power. And you can always scale down the hardware or charge it utility for using more computing power than it needs, forcing it to be efficient or limiting it's intelligence further. You don't need to invoke the full power of super-intelligence for every problem and for your safety you probably shouldn't.
0Eugene11y
A slightly bigger "large risk" than Pentashagon puts forward is that a provably boxed UFAI could indifferently give us information that results in yet another UFAI, just as unpredictable as itself (statistically speaking, it's going to give us more unhelpful information than helpful, as Robb point out). Keep in mind I'm extrapolating here. At first you'd just be asking for mundane things like better transportation, cures for diseases, etc. If the UFAI's mind is strange enough, and we're lucky enough, then some of these things result in beneficial outcomes, politically motivating humans to continue asking it for things. Eventually we're going to escalate to asking for a better AI, at which point we'll get a crap-shoot. An even bigger risk than that -though - is that if it's especially Unfriendly, it may even do this intentionally, going so far as to pretend it's friendly while bestowing us with data to make an AI even more Unfriendly AI than itself. So what do we do, box that AI as well, when it could potentially be even more devious than the one that already convinced us to make this one? Is it just boxes, all the way down? (spoilers: it isn't, because we shouldn't be taking any advice from boxed AIs in the first place) The only use of a boxed AI is to verify that, yes, the programming path you went down is the wrong one, and resulted in an AI that was indifferent to our existence (and therefore has no incentive to hide its motives from us). Any positive outcome would be no better than an outcome where the AI was specifically Evil, because if we can't tell the difference in the code prior to turning it on, we certainly wouldn't be able to tell the difference afterward.

If an artificial intelligence is smart enough to be dangerous, we'd intuitively expect it to be smart enough to know how to make itself safe.

I don't agree with that. Just looks at humans, they are smart enough to be dangerous, but even when they do want to "make themselves safe", they are usually unable to do so. A lot of harm is done by people with good intent. I don't think all of Moliere doctors prescribing bloodletting were intending to do harm.

Yes, a sufficiently smart AI will know how to make itself safe if it wishes, but the intelligence level required for that is much higher than the one required to be harmful.

2Rob Bensinger11y
Agreed. The reason I link the two abilities is that I'm assuming an AI that acquires either power went FOOM, which makes it much more likely that the two powers will arise at (on a human scale) essentially the same time.
2Lethalmud10y
If a FAI would have a utility function like "Maximise X while remaining Friendly", And the UFAI would just have "Maximise X". Then, If the FAI and a UFAI would be initiated simultaneously, I would expect them both to develop exponentially, but the UFAI would have more options available, thus have a steeper learning curve. So I'd expect that in this situation that the UFAI would go FOOM slightly sooner, and be able to disable the FAI.

And if we do discover the specific lines of code that will get an AI to perfectly care about its programmer's True Intentions, such that it reliably self-modifies to better fit them — well, then that will just mean that we've solved Friendliness Theory. The clever hack that makes further Friendliness research unnecessary is Friendliness.

Some people seem to be arguing that it may not be that hard to discover these specific lines of code. Or perhaps that we don't need to get an AI to "perfectly" care about its programmer's True Intentions. I'm not sure if I understand their arguments correctly so I may be unintentionally strawmanning them, but the idea may be that if we can get an AI to approximately care about its programmer or user's intentions, and also prevent it from FOOMing right away (or just that the microeconomics of intelligence explosion doesn't allow for such fast FOOMing), then we can make use of the AI in a relatively safe way to solve various problems, including the problem of how to control such AIs better, or how to eventually build an FAI. What's your take on this class of arguments?

Being Friendly is of instrumental value to barely any goals.

Tangentially, being Friendly is probably of instrumental value to some goals, which may turn out to be easier to instill in an AGI than solving Friendliness in the traditional terminal values sense. I came up with the term "Instrumentally Friendly AI" to describe such an approach.

-3XiXiDu11y
Nobody disagrees that an arbitrary agent pulled from mind design space, that is powerful enough to overpower humanity, is an existential risk if it either exhibits Omohundro's AI drives or is used as a tool by humans, either carelessly or to gain power over other humans. Disagreeing with that would about make as much sense as claiming that out-of-control self-replicating robots could somehow magically turn the world into a paradise, rather than grey goo. The disagreement is mainly about the manner in which we will achieve such AIs, how quickly that will happen, and whether such AIs will have these drives. I actually believe that much less than superhuman general intelligence might be required for humans to cause extinction type scenarios. Most of my posts specifically deal with the scenario and arguments publicized by MIRI. Those posts are not highly polished papers but attempts to reduce my own confusion and to enable others to provide feedback. I argue that... * ...the idea of a vast mind design space is largely irrelevant, because AIs will be created by humans, which will considerably limit the kind of minds we should expect. * ...that AIs created by humans do not need to, and will not exhibit any of Omohundro's AI drives. * ...that even given Omohundro's AI drives, it is not clear how such AIs would arrive at the decision to take over the world. * ...that there will be no fast transition from largely well-behaved narrow AIs to unbounded general AIs, and that humans will be part of any transition. * ...that any given AI will initially not be intelligent enough to hide any plans for world domination. * ...that drives as outlined by Omohundro would lead to a dramatic interference with what the AI's creators want it to do, before it could possibly become powerful enough to deceive or overpower them, and would therefore be noticed in time. * ...that even if MIRI's scenario comes to pass, there is a lack of concrete scenarios on how such an AI could possi

This mirrors some comments you wrote recently:

"You write that the worry is that the superintelligence won't care. My response is that, to work at all, it will have to care about a lot. For example, it will have to care about achieving accurate beliefs about the world. It will have to care to devise plans to overpower humanity and not get caught. If it cares about those activities, then how is it more difficult to make it care to understand and do what humans mean?"

"If an AI is meant to behave generally intelligent [sic] then it will have to work as intended or otherwise fail to be generally intelligent."

It's relatively easy to get an AI to care about (optimize for) something-or-other; what's hard is getting one to care about the right something.

'Working as intended' is a simple phrase, but behind it lies a monstrously complex referent. It doesn't clearly distinguish the programmers' (mostly implicit) true preferences from their stated design objectives; an AI's actual code can differ from either or both of these. Crucially, what an AI is 'intended' for isn't all-or-nothing. It can fail in some ways without failing in every way, and small errors will tend to ... (read more)

-4TheAncientGeek9y
MIRI assumes that programming what you want an AI to do at the outset , Big Design Up Front, is a desirable feature for some reason. The most common argument is that it is a necessary prerequisite for provable correctness, which is a desirable safety feature. OTOH, the exact opposite of massive hardcoding, goal flexibility is ielf a necessary prerequisite for corrigibility, which is itself a desirable safety feature. The latter point has not been argued against adequately, IMO.
[-]Furcas11y140

9. An AI equipped with the capabilities required by step 5, given step 7 and 8, will very likely not be confused about what it is meant to do, if it was not meant to be confused.

"The genie knows, but doesn't care"

It's like you haven't read the OP at all.

-1XiXiDu11y
I do not reject that step 10 does not follow if you reject that the AI will not "care" to learn what it is meant to do. But I believe there to be good reasons for an AI created by humans to care. If you assume that this future software does not care, can you pinpoint when software stops caring? 1. Present-day software is better than previous software generations at understanding and doing what humans mean. 2. There will be future generations of software which will be better than the current generation at understanding and doing what humans mean. 3. If there is better software, there will be even better software afterwards. 4. ... 5. Software will be superhuman good at understanding what humans mean but catastrophically worse than all previous generations at doing what humans mean. What happens between step 3 and 5, and how do you justify it? My guess is that you will write that there will not be a step 4, but instead a sudden transition from narrow AIs to something you call a seed AI, which is capable of making itself superhuman powerful in a very short time. And as I wrote in the comment you replied to, if I was to accept that assumption, then we would be in full agreement about AI risks. But I reject that assumption. I do not believe such a seed AI to be possible and believe that even if it was possible it would not work the way you think it would work. It would have to aquire information about what it is supposed to do, for pratical reasons.

Present day software is a series of increasing powerful narrow tools and abstractions. None of them encode anything remotely resembling the values of their users. Indeed, present-day software that tries to "do what you mean" is in my experience incredibly annoying and difficult to use, compared to software that simply presents a simple interface to a system with comprehensible mechanics.

Put simply, no software today cares about what you want. Furthermore, your general reasoning process here—define some vague measure of "software doing what you want", observe an increasing trend line and extrapolate to a future situation—is exactly the kind of reasoning I always try to avoid, because it is usually misleading and heuristic.

Look at the actual mechanics of the situation. A program that literally wants to do what you mean is a complicated thing. No realistic progression of updates to Google Maps, say, gets anywhere close to building an accurate world-model describing its human users, plus having a built-in goal system that happens to specifically identify humans in its model and deduce their extrapolated goals. As EY has said, there is no ghost in the machine that checks your code to make sure it doesn't make any "mistakes" like doing something the programmer didn't intend. If it's not programmed to care about what the programmer wanted, it won't.

8FeepingCreature11y
Is it just me, or does this sound like it could grow out of advertisement services? I think it's the one industry that directly profits from generically modelling what users "want"¹and then delivering it to them. [edit] ¹where "want" == "will click on and hopefully buy"
0XiXiDu10y
Do you believe that any kind of general intelligence is practically feasible that is not a collection of powerful narrow tools and abstractions? What makes you think so? If all I care about is a list of Fibonacci numbers, what is the difference regarding the word "care" between a simple recursive algorithm and a general AI? My measure of "software doing what you want" is not vague. I mean it quite literally. If I want software to output a series of Fibonacci numbers, and it does output a series of Fibonacci numbers, then it does what I want. And what other than an increasing trend line do you suggest would be a rational means of extrapolation, sudden jumps and transitions?
-2Juno_Watt11y
Present day software may not have got far with regard to the evaluative side of doing what you want, but the XiXiDu's point seems to be that it is getting better at the semantic side. Who was it who said the value problem is part of the semantic problem?

Present-day software is better than previous software generations at understanding and doing what humans mean.

http://www.buzzfeed.com/jessicamisener/the-30-most-hilarious-autocorrect-struggles-ever
No fax or photocopier ever autocorrected your words from "meditating" to "masturbating".

Software will be superhuman good at understanding what humans mean but catastrophically worse than all previous generations at doing what humans mean.

Every bit of additional functionality requires huge amounts of HUMAN development and testing, not in order to compile and run (that's easy), but in order to WORK AS YOU WANT IT TO.

I can fully believe that a superhuman intelligence examining you will be fully capable of calculating "what you mean" "what you want" "what you fear" "what would be funniest for a buzzfeed artcle if I pretended to misunderstand your statement as meaning" "what would be best for you according to your values" "what would be best for you according to your cat's values" "what would be best for you according to Genghis Khan's values" .

No program now cares about what you mean. You've still not given any reason for the future software to care about "what you mean" over all those other calculation either.

6Mestroyer11y
I kind of doubt that autocorrect software really changed "meditating" to "masturbating". Because of stuff like this. Edit: And because, start at the left and working rightward, they only share 1 letter before diverging, and because I've seen a spell-checker with special behavior for dirty/curse words (Not suggesting them as corrected spellings, but also not complaining about them as unrecognized words) (this is the one spell-checker which, out of curiousity, I decided to check its behavior with dirty/curse words, so I bet it's common). Edit 2: Also from a causal history perspective of why a doubt it, rather than a normative justification perspective, there's the fact that Yvain linked it and said something like "I don't care if these are real." Edit 3: typo.
4Randaly11y
To be fair, that is a fairly representative example of bad autocorrects. (I once had a text message autocorrect to "We are terrorist.")
0TheAncientGeek9y
Meaning they don't care about anything? They care about something else? What? I'll tell you one thing: the marketplace will select agents that act as if they care.
0XiXiDu11y
I agree that current software products fail, such as in your autocorrect example. But how could a seed AI be able to make itself superhuman powerful if it did not care about avoiding mistakes such as autocoreccting "meditating" to "masturbating"? Imagine it would make similar mistakes in any of the problems that it is required to solve in order to overpower humanity. And if humans succeeded to make it not make such mistakes along the way to overpowering humanity, how did they selectively fail at making it want to overpower humanity in the first place? How likely is that?

But how could a seed AI be able to make itself superhuman powerful if it did not care about avoiding mistakes such as autocoreccting "meditating" to "masturbating"?

Those are only 'mistakes' if you value human intentions. A grammatical error is only an error because we value the specific rules of grammar we do; it's not the same sort of thing as a false belief (though it may stem from, or result in, false beliefs).

A machine programmed to terminally value the outputs of a modern-day autocorrect will never self-modify to improve on that algorithm or its outputs (because that would violate its terminal values). The fact that this seems silly to a human doesn't provide any causal mechanism for the AI to change its core preferences. Have we successfully coded the AI not to do things that humans find silly, and to prize un-silliness before all other things? If not, then where will that value come from?

A belief can be factually wrong. A non-representational behavior (or dynamic) is never factually right or wrong, only normatively right or wrong. (And that normative wrongness only constrains what actually occurs to the extent the norm is one a sufficiently powerful ag... (read more)

1Eliezer Yudkowsky10y
It also looks like user Juno_Watt is some type of systematic troll, probably a sockpuppet for someone else, haven't bothered investigating who.
0Paul Crowley10y
I can't work out how this relates to the thread it appears in.
1Eliezer Yudkowsky11y
Warning as before: XiXiDu = Alexander Kruel.
5pslunch11y
I'm confused as to the reason for the warning/outing, especially since the community seems to be doing an excellent job of dealing with his somewhat disjointed arguments. Downvotes, refutation, or banning in extreme cases are all viable forum-preserving responses. Publishing a dissenter's name seems at best bad manners and at worst rather crass intimidation. I only did a quick search on him and although some of the behavior was quite obnoxious, is there anything I've missed that justifies this?

XiXiDu wasn't attempting or requesting anonymity - his LW profile openly lists his true name - and Alexander Kruel is someone with known problems (and a blog openly run under his true name) whom RobbBB might not know offhand was the same person as "XiXiDu" although this is public knowledge, nor might RobbBB realize that XiXiDu had the same irredeemable status as Loosemore.

I would not randomly out an LW poster for purposes of intimidation - I don't think I've ever looked at a username's associated private email address. Ever. Actually I'm not even sure offhand if our registration process requires/verifies that or not, since I was created as a pre-existing user at the dawn of time.

I do consider RobbBB's work highly valuable and I don't want him to feel disheartened by mistakenly thinking that a couple of eternal and irredeemable semitrolls are representative samples. Due to Civilizational Inadequacy, I don't think it's possible to ever convince the field of AI or philosophy of anything even as basic as the Orthogonality Thesis, but even I am not cynical enough to think that Loosemore or Kruel are representative samples.

Thanks, Eliezer! I knew who XiXiDu is. (And if I hadn't, I think the content of his posts makes it easy to infer.)

There are a variety of reasons I find this discussion useful at the moment, and decided to stir it up. In particular, ground-floor disputes like this can be handy for forcing me to taboo inferential-gap-laden ideas and to convert premises I haven't thought about at much length into actual arguments. But one of my reasons is not 'I think this is representative of what serious FAI discussions look like (or ought to look like)', no.

6Rain11y
Glad to hear. It is interesting data that you managed to bring in 3 big name trolls for a single thread, considering their previous dispersion and lack of interest.

Kruel hasn't threatened to sue anyone for calling him an idiot, at least!

1wedrifid11y
Pardon me, I've missed something. Who has threatened to sue someone for calling him an idiot? I'd have liked to see the inevitable "truth" defence.
6pslunch11y
Thank you for the clarification. While I have a certain hesitance to throw around terms like "irredeemable", I do understand the frustration with a certain, let's say, overconfident and persistent brand of misunderstanding and how difficult it can be to maintain a public forum in its presence. My one suggestion is that, if the goal was to avoid RobbBB's (wonderfully high-quality comments, by the way) confusion, a private message might have been better. If the goal was more generally to minimize the confusion for those of us who are newer or less versed in LessWrong lore, more description might have been useful ("a known and persistent troll" or whatever) rather than just providing a name from the enemies list.
6player_0311y
Agreed. ---------------------------------------- Though actually, Eliezer used similar phrasing regarding Richard Loosemore and got downvoted for it (not just by me). Admittedly, "persistent troll" is less extreme than "permanent idiot," but even so, the statement could be phrased to be more useful. I'd suggest, "We've presented similar arguments to [person] already, and [he or she] remained unconvinced. Ponder carefully before deciding to spend much time arguing with [him or her]." Not only is it less offensive this way, it does a better job of explaining itself. (Note: the "ponder carefully" section is quoting Eliezer; that part of his post was fine.)
3[anonymous]11y
Who has twice sworn off commenting on LW. So much for pre-commitments.
-5Juno_Watt11y

But how could a seed AI be able to make itself superhuman powerful if it did not care about avoiding mistakes such as autocoreccting "meditating" to "masturbating"?

As Robb said you're confusing mistake in the sense of "The program is doing something we don't want to do" with mistake in the sense of "The program has wrong beliefs about reality".

I suppose a different way of thinking about these is "A mistaken human belief about the program" vs "A mistaken computer belief about the human". We keep talking about the former (the program does something we didn't know it would do), and you keep treating it as if it's the latter.

Let's say we have a program (not an AI, just a program) which uses Newton's laws in order to calculate the trajectory of a ball. We want it to calculate this in order to have it move a tennis racket and hit the ball back. When it finally runs, we observe that the program always avoids the ball rather than hit it back. Is it because it's calculating the trajectory of the ball wrongly? No, it calculates the trajectory very well indeed, it's just that an instruction in the program was wrongly inserted so t... (read more)

-10Juno_Watt11y
0[anonymous]11y
To be better able to respond to your comment, please let me know in what way you disagree with the following comparison between narrow AI and general AI: Narrow artificial intelligence will be denoted NAI and general artificial intelligence GAI. (1) Is it in principle capable of behaving in accordance with human intention to a sufficient degree? NAI: True GAI: True (2) Under what circumstances does it fail to behave in accordance with human intention? NAI: If it is broken, where broken stands for a wide range of failure modes such as incorrectly managing memory allocations. GAI: In all cases in which it is not mathematically proven to be tasked with the protection of, and equipped with, a perfect encoding of all human values or a safe way to obtain such an encoding. (3) What happens when it fails to behave in accordance with human intention? NAI: It crashes, freezes or halts. It generally fails in a way that is harmful to its own functioning. If for example an autonomous car fails at driving autonomously it usually means that it will either go into safe-mode and halt or crash. GAI: It works perfectly well. Superhumanly well. All its intended capabilities are intact except that it completely fails at working as intended in such a way as to destroy all human value in the universe. It will be able to improve itself and capable of obtaining a perfect encoding of human values. It will use those intended capabilities in order to deceive and overpower humans rather than doing what it was intended to do. (4) What happens if it is bound to use a limited amount of resources, use a limited amount of space or run for a limited amount of time? NAI: It will only ever do what it was programmed to do. As long as there is no fatal flaw, harming its general functionality, it will work within the defined boundaries as intended. GAI: It will never do what it was programmed to do and always remove or bypass its intended limitations in order to pursue unintended actions such
-3XiXiDu11y
To be better able to respond to your comment, please let me know in what way you disagree with the following comparison between narrow AI and general AI: Narrow artificial intelligence will be denoted NAI and general artificial intelligence GAI. (1) Is it in principle capable of behaving in accordance with human intention to a sufficient degree? NAI: True GAI: True (2) Under what circumstances does it fail to behave in accordance with human intention? NAI: If it is broken, where broken stands for a wide range of failure modes such as incorrectly managing memory allocations. GAI: In all cases in which it is not mathematically proven to be tasked with the protection of, and equipped with, a perfect encoding of all human values or a safe way to obtain such an encoding. (3) What happens when it fails to behave in accordance with human intention? NAI: It crashes, freezes or halts. It generally fails in a way that is harmful to its own functioning. If for example an autonomous car fails at driving autonomously it usually means that it will either go into safe-mode and halt or crash. GAI: It works perfectly well. Superhumanly well. All its intended capabilities are intact except that it completely fails at working as intended in such a way as to destroy all human value in the universe. It will be able to improve itself and capable of obtaining a perfect encoding of human values. It will use those intended capabilities in order to deceive and overpower humans rather than doing what it was intended to do. (4) What happens if it is bound to use a limited amount of resources, use a limited amount of space or run for a limited amount of time? NAI: It will only ever do what it was programmed to do. As long as there is no fatal flaw, harming its general functionality, it will work within the defined boundaries as intended. GAI: It will never do what it was programmed to do and always remove or bypass its intended limitations in order to pursue unintended actions such

GAI: It will never do what it was programmed to do and always remove or bypass its intended limitations in order to pursue unintended actions such as taking over the universe.

GAI is a program. It always does what it's programmed to do. That's the problem—a program that was written incorrectly will generally never do what it was intended to do.

FWIW, I find your statements 3,4,5 also highly objectionable, on the grounds that you are lumping a large class of things under the blank label "errors". Is an "error" doing something that humans don't want? Is it doing something the agent doesn't want? Is it accidentally mistyping a letter in a program, causing a syntax error, or thinking about something heuristically and coming to the wrong conclusion, then making carefully planned decision based on that mistake? Automatic proof systems don't save you if you what you think you need to prove isn't actually what you need to prove.

-6Juno_Watt11y
4scav11y
First list: 1) Poorly defined terms "human intention" and "sufficient". 2) Possibly under any circumstances whatsoever, if it's anything like other non-trivial software, which always has some bugs. 3) Anything from "you may not notice" to "catastrophic failure resulting in deaths". Claim that failure of software to work as humans intend will "generally fail in a way that is harmful to it's own functioning" is unsupported. E.g. a spreadsheet works fine if the floating point math is off in the 20th bit of the mantissa. The answers will be wrong, but there is nothing about that that the spreadsheet could be expected to care about, 4) Not necessarily. GAI may continue to try to do what it was programmed to do, and only unintentionally destroy a small city in the process :) Second list: 1) Wrong. The abilities of sufficiently complex systems are a huge space of events humans haven't thought about yet, and so do not yet have preferences about. There is no way to know what their preferences would or should be for many many outcomes. 2) Error as failure to perform the requested action may take precedence over error as failure to anticipate hypothetical objections from some humans to something they hadn't expected. For one thing, it is more clearly defined. We already know human-level intelligences act this way. 3) Asteroids and supervolcanoes are not better than humans at preventing errors. It is perfectly possible for something stupid to be able to kill you. Therefore something with greater cognitive and material resources than you, but still with the capacity to make mistakes can certainly kill you. For example, a government. 4) It is already possible for a very fallible human to make something that is better than humans at detecting certain kinds of errors. 5) No. Unless by dramatic you mean "impossibly perfect, magical and universal".
0MugaSofer11y
Two points: Firstly, "fails in a way that is harmful to its own functioning" appears to be tautological. Secondly, you seem to be listing things that apply to any kind of AI in the NAI section - is this intentional? (This happens throughout your comment, in fact.)
-7Juno_Watt11y
7Chrysophylax10y
XiXiDu, I get the impression you've never coded anything. Is that accurate? Present-day everyday software (e.g. Google Maps, Siri) is better at doing what humans mean. It is not better at understanding humans. Learning programs like the one that runs PARO appear to be good at understanding humans, but are actually following a very simple utility function (in the decision sense, not the experiental sense); they change their behaviour in response to programmed cues, generally by doing more/less of actions associated with those cues (example: PARO "likes" being stroked and will do more of things that tend to preceed stroking). In each case of a program that improves itself, it has a simple thing it "wants" to optimise and makes changes according to how well it seems to be doing. Making software that understands humans at all is beyond our current capabilities. Theory of mind, the ability to recognise agents and see them as having desires of their own, is something we have no idea how to produce; we don't even know how humans have it. General intelligence is an enormous step beyond programming something like Siri. Siri is "just" interpreting vocal commands as text (which requires no general intelligence), matching that to a list of question structures (which requires no general intelligence; Siri does not have to understand what the word "where" means to know that Google Maps may be useful for that type of question) and delegating to Web services, with a layer of learning code to produce more of the results you liked (i.e., that made you stop asking related questions) in the past. Siri is using a very small built-in amount of knowledge and an even smaller amount of learned knowledge to fake understanding, but it's just pattern-matching. While the second step is the root of general intelligence, it's almost all provided by humans who understood that "where" means a question is probably to do with geography; Siri's ability to improve this step is virtually nonexistent.
2XiXiDu10y
So you believe that "understanding" is an all or nothing capability? I did never intend to use "understanding" like this. My use of the term is such that if my speech recognition software correctly transcribes 98% of what I am saying then it is better at understanding how certain sounds are related to certain strings of characters than a software that correctly transcribes 95% of what I said. One enormous step or a huge number of steps? If the former, what makes you think so? If the latter, then at what point do better versions of Siri start acting in catastrophic ways? Most of what humans understand is provided by other humans who themselves got another cruder version from other humans. If an AI is not supposed to take over the world, then from the perspective of humans it is mistaken to take over the world. Humans got something wrong about the AI design if it takes over the world. Now if needs to solve a minimum of N problems correctly in order to take over the world, then this means that it succeeded N times at being general intelligent at executing a stupid thing. The question that arises here is whether it is more likely for humans to build an AI that works perfectly well along a number of dimensions at doing a stupid thing than an AI that fails at doing a stupid thing because it does other stupid things as well? Sure, I do not disagree with this at all. AI will very likely lead to catastrophic events. I merely disagree with the dumb superintelligence scenario. In other words, humans are likely to fail at AI in such a way that it works perfectly well in a catastrophic way. I certainly do not reject that general AI is extremely dangerous in the hands of unfriendly humans and that only a friendly AI that takes over the world could eventually prevent a catastrophe. I am rejecting the dumb superintelligence scenario.
[-][anonymous]11y80

I have news for you. The rest of the world considers the community surrounding Eliezer Yudkowsky to be a quasi-cult comprised mostly of people who brainwash each other into thinking they are smart, rational, etc., but who are in fact quite ignorant of a lot of technical facts, and incapable of discussing anything in an intelligent, coherent, rational manner.

[citation needed]

In all seriousness, as far as I know, almost no one in the world-at-large even knows about the Less Wrong community. Whenever I mention "Less Wrong" to someone, the reacti... (read more)

People manage to be friendly without apriori knowledge of everyone else's preferences. Human values are very complex...and one person's preferences are not another's.

Being the same species comes with certain advantages for the possiibility of cooperation. But I wasn't very friendly towards a wasp-nest I discovered in my attic. People aren't very friendly to the vast majority of different species they deal with.

1) This is unrelated and off-topic mockery of MIRI. Are you conceding the original point?

2) It is factually wrong that MIRI 'uncontroversially cranks'. You've probably noticed this, given that you are on a website with technical members where the majority opinion is that MIRI is correct-ish, you are commenting on an article by somebody unaffiliated with MIRI supporting MIRI's case, and you are responding directly to people [Wedrifid and I] unaffiliated with MIRI who support MIRI's case. Note also MIRI's peer reviewed publications and its research advisors.

Let's say we don't know how to create a friendly AGI but we do know how to create an honest one; that is, one which has no intent to deceive. So we have it sitting in front of us, and it's at the high end of human-level intelligence.

Us: How could we change you to make you friendlier?

AI: I don't really know what you mean by that, because you don't really know either.

Us: How much smarter would you need to be in order to answer that question in a way that would make us, right now, looking through a window at the outcome of implementing your answer, agree tha... (read more)

Brilliant post.

On the note of There Ain't No Such Thing As A Free Buck:

Philosophy buck: One might want a seed FAI to provably self-modify to an FAI with above-humanly-possible level of philosophical ability/expressive power. But such a proof might require a significant amount of philosophical progress/expressive power from humans beforehand; we cannot rely on a given seed FAI that will FOOM to help us prove its philosophical ability. Different or preliminary artifices or computations (e.g. computers, calculators) will assist us, though.

Thanks, Knave! I'll use 'artificial superintelligence' (ASI, or just SI) here, to distinguish this kind of AGI from non-superintelligent AGIs (including seed AIs, superintelligences-in-the-making that haven't yet gone through a takeoff). Chalmers' 'AI++' also works for singling out the SI from other kinds of AGI. 'FAI' doesn't help, because it's ambiguous whether we mean a Friendly SI, or a Friendly seed (i.e., a seed that will reliably produce a Friendly SI).

The dilemma is that we can safely use low-intelligence AGIs to help with Friendliness Theory, but they may not be smart enough to get the right answer; whereas high-intelligence AGIs will be more useful for Friendliness Theory, but also more dangerous given that we haven't already solved Friendliness Theory.

In general, 'provably Friendly' might mean any of three different things:

  1. Humans can prove, without using an SI, that the SI is (or will be) Friendly. (Other AGIs, ones that are stupid and non-explosive, may be useful here.)

  2. The SI can prove to itself that it is Friendly. (This proof may be unintelligible to humans. This is important during self-modifications; any Friendly AI that's about to enact a major edit to its own

... (read more)

I'm superintelligent in comparison to wasps, and I still chose to kill them all.

  • This is not 'uncontroversial'.

  • The survey in question did not actually ask whether they thought MIRI were cranks. In fact, it asked no questions about MIRI whatsoever, and presumably most respondents had never heard of MIRI.

  • Every respondent but Loosemore who did specifically mention MIRI (Demski, Carrier, Eray Ozkural) were positive about them. (Schmidhuber, Legg, and Orseau have all worked with MIRI, but did not mention it. If you regard collaboration as endorsement, then they have all also apparently endorsed MIRI.)

  • You are still failing to address the original point.

[-][anonymous]11y40

The summary is so so good that the article doesn't seem worth reading. I can't say I've ever been in this position before.

Is that going to be harder that coming up with a mathematical expension of morality and preloading it?

Harder than saying it in English, that's all.

EY. It's his answer to friendliness.

No he wants to program the AI to deduce morality from us it is called CEV. He seems to be still working out how the heck to reduce that to math.

You're still picking those particular views due to the endorsement by Yudkowsky.

Your psychological speculation fails you. I actually read the articles I cited, and I found their arguments convincing.

With regards to Chalmers and Bostrom, they are philosophers with zero understanding of the actual issues involved in AI

This makes it sound like you've never read anything by those two authors on the subject. Possibly you're trying to generalize from your cached idea of a 'philosopher'. Expertise in philosophy does not in itself make one less qualified to... (read more)

Humans are made to do that by evolution AIs are not. So you have to figure what the heck evolution did, in ways specific enough to program into a computer.

Also, who mentioned giving AIs a priori knowledge of our preferences? It doesn't seem to be in what you replied to.

There are a number of possibilities still missing from the discussion in the post. For example:

  • There might not be any such thing as a friendly AI. Yes, we have every reason to believe that the space of possible minds is huge, and it's also very clear that some possibilities are less unfriendly than others. I'm also not making an argument that fun is a limited resource. I'm just saying that there may be no possible AI that takes over the world without eventually running off the rails of fun. In fact, the question itself seems superficially similar to the

... (read more)

In fact, the question itself seems superficially similar to the halting problem, where "running off the rails" is the analogue for "halting"

If you want to draw an analogy to halting, then what that analogy actually says is: There are lots of programs that provably halt, and lots that provably don't halt, and lots that aren't provable either way. The impossibility of the halting problem is irrelevant, because we don't need a fully general classifier that works for every possible program. We only need to find a single program that provably has behavior X (for some well-chosen value of X).

If you're postulating that there are some possible friendly behaviors, and some possible programs with those behaviors, but that they're all in the unprovable category, then you're postulating that friendliness is dissimilar to the halting problem in that respect.

1Baughn11y
Moreover, the halting problem doesn't show that the set of programs you can't decide halting for is in any way interesting. It's a constructive proof, yes, but it constructs a peculiarly twisted program that embeds its own proof-checker. That might be relevant for AGI, but for almost every program in existence we have no idea which group it's in, and would likely guess it's provable.
1scav11y
It's still probably premature to guess whether friendliness is provable when we don't have any idea what it is. My worry is not that it wouldn't be possible or provable, but that it might not be a meaningful term at all. But I also suspect friendliness, if it does mean anything, is in general going to be so complex that "only [needing] to find a single program that provably has behaviour X" may be beyond us. There are lots of mathematical conjectures we can't prove, even without invoking the halting problem. One terrible trap might be the temptation to make simplifications in the model to make the problem provable, but end up proving the wrong thing. Maybe you can prove that a set of friendliness criteria are stable under self-modification, but I don't see any way to prove those starting criteria don't have terrible unintended consequences. Those are contingent on too many real-world circumstances and unknown unknowns. How do you even model that?

And if we do discover the specific lines of code that will get an AI to perfectly care about its programmer's True Intentions, such that it reliably self-modifies to better fit them — well, then that will just mean that we've solved Friendliness Theory. The clever hack that makes further Friendliness research unnecessary is Friendliness.

It's still a lot easy to program an AI to care about the programmer's True intentions than it is to explicitly program in those intentions. The clever hack helps a lot.

4TheOtherDave11y
...always assuming the programmer actually has relevant True Intentions that are coherent enough to be cared about.
1Rob Bensinger11y
It's at least the case that some rational reconstructions are drastically Truer than others. Idealizations and approximations are pretty OK, in the cases where they don't ruin everything forever.
0TheOtherDave11y
I am not sure I've understood your point here. I mean, yes, of course, in those cases where X is not unacceptably bad, then X is probably acceptably good, and that's just as true for X = "an approximation of my True Intentions" as for X = "the annihilation of all life on Earth" or anything else. And yes, of course, there's a Vast class of propositions that are drastically worse approximations of my True Intentions than any plausible candidate would be... "Paint everything in the universe blue," just to pick one arbitrary example. Did you mean anything more than that? If so, can you unpack a little further? If not... well, yes. The question is precisely whether there exists any consistent proposition that is a good enough approximation of my True Intentions to not "ruin everything forever," or whether my True Intentions are sufficiently confused/incoherent/unstable that we prefer to ignore me altogether and listen to someone else instead.
2Rob Bensinger11y
My point is that an approximation that just creates a decently fun world, rather than a wildly overwhelmingly fun world, would still be pretty good. There's probably no need to aim that low, but if that's the best we can safely get by extrapolating human volition, without risking a catastrophe, then so be it. Worlds that aren't completely valueless for most of the stelliferous era are a very small and difficult target to hit; I'm a lot more worried about whether we can hit that target at all than about whether we can hit the very center in a philosophically and neuroscientifically ideal way. If 'OK' is the best we can do, then that's still OK. I would say that the world we live in is not unacceptably bad for everyone in it. (It it is not the case that everyone currently alive would be better off dead.) So there's a proof that an AGI could potentially create a non-terrible circumstance for us to inhabit, relative to our preferences. The questions are (a) How do we spatially and temporally distribute the things we already have and value, so we can have a lot more of them?, and (b) How much better can we make things without endangering value altogether?
0TheOtherDave11y
I agree that a decently fun world would still be pretty good, and if that maximizes expected value then that's what we should choose, given a choice. Of course, the "if/then" part of that sentence is important. In other words to go from there to "we should therefore choose a decently but not wildly overwhelmingly fun world, given a choice" is unjustified without additional data. Opportunity costs are still costs. I agree that the world we live in is not unacceptably bad for everyone in it. I agree that not everyone currently alive would be better off dead. I agree that an AGI (as that term is used here) could potentially create a non-terrible circumstance for us to inhabit. (I'm not really sure what "relative to our preferences" means there. What else might "non-terrible" be relative to?) I'm not at all sure why the two questions you list are "the" questions. I agree that the first one is worth answering. I'm not sure the second one is, though if we answer it along the way to doing something else that's OK with me.

.... That's not what that quote says at all.

Look, I'm tapping out, this discussion is not productive for me.

Being Friendly is of instrumental value to barely any goals. [...]

This is not really true. See Kropotkin and Margulis on the value of mutualism and cooperation.

1Rob Bensinger10y
Friendliness is an extremely high bar. Humans are not Friendly, in the FAI sense. Yet humans are mutualist and can cooperate with each other.
1timtyler10y
Right. So, if we are playing the game of giving counter-intuitive technical meanings to ordinary English words, humans have thrived for millions of years - with their "UnFriendly" peers and their "UnFriendly" institutions. Evidently, "Friendliness" is not necessary for human flourishing.
0Rob Bensinger10y
I agree with this part of Chrysophylax's comment: "It's not necessary when the UnFriendly people are humans using muscle-power weaponry." Humans can be non-Friendly without immediately destroying the planet because humans are a lot weaker than a superintelligence. If you gave a human unlimited power, it would almost certainly make the world vastly worse than it currently is. We should be at least as worried, then, about giving an AGI arbitrarily large amounts of power, until we've figured out reliable ways to safety-proof optimization processes.
0Chrysophylax10y
It's not necessary when the UnFriendly people are humans using muscle-power weaponry. A superhumanly intelligent self-modifying AGI is a rather different proposition, even with only today's resources available. Given that we have no reason to believe that molecular nanotech isn't possible, an AI that is even slightly UnFriendly might be a disaster. Consider the situation where the world finds out that DARPA has finished an AI (for example). Would you expect America to release the source code? Given our track record on issues like evolution and whether American citizens need to arm themselves against the US government, how many people would consider it an abomination and/or a threat to their liberty? What would the self-interested response of every dictator (for example, Kim Jong Il's successor) with nuclear weapons be? Even a Friendly AI poses a danger until fighting against it is not only useless but obviously useless, and making an AI Friendly is, as has been explained, really freakin' hard. I also take issue with the statement that humans have flourished. We spent most of those millions of years being hunter-gatherers. "Nasty, brutish and short" is the phrase that springs to mind.

I didn't say everyone who rejects any of the theses does so purely because s/he didn't understand it. That doesn't make it cease to be a problem that most AGI researchers don't understand all of the theses, or the case supporting them. You may be familiar with the theses only from the Sequences, but they've all been defended in journal articles, book chapters, and conference papers. See e.g. Chalmers 2010 and Chalmers 2012 for the explosion thesis, or Bostrom 2012 for the orthogonality thesis.

Nearly all software that superficially looks like it's going to go skynet on you and kill you, isn't going to do that, either.

Sure. Because nearly all software that superficially looks to a human like it's a seed AI is not a seed AI. The argument for 'programmable indirect normativity is an important research focus' nowhere assumes that it's particularly easy to build a seed AI.

"If there are seasoned AI researchers who can't wrap their heads around the five theses", then you are going to feel more pleased with yourself, being a believer

Hm... (read more)

You folks live in an echo chamber in which you tell each other that you are sensible, sane and capable of rational argument, while the rest of the world are all idiots.

I dunno, I had seen plenty of evidence that "the rest of the world are all idiots" (assuming I understand you correctly) long before encountering LessWrong. I don't think that's an echo chamber (although other things may be.)

(Although I must admit LessWrong has a long way to go. This community is far from perfect.)

I have news for you. The rest of the world considers the commun

... (read more)
[-][anonymous]11y10

I don't really understand how anyone can grasp the concept of not caring.

I think the meme comes from popculture where many bad villains do care even a little bit. I think I once or twice met a villain who didn't, who just wanted everyone dead for their own amusement and all the arguments were met with "but, you see, I don't care."

If I were to give an analogy: Do you care about the positions of individual grains of sand on distant beaches? If I hand you a grain of sand, do you care exactly which grain of sand it is? If you are even marginally indifferent, then think of an alien intellect that cares very much about what grain of sand it is, but is just as indifferent about humans.

4Viliam_Bur11y
I like that analogy. I imagine that for an AIXI-style artificial intelligence, the whole futures of the universe are just like the pieces of the sand on the beach. It chooses a piece according to some criteria, for example the brightest color, but every other aspect is so completely irrelevant than most humans would be unable to imagine that kind of indifference. Our human brains keep screaming at us: "But surely even a mere machine would not dare to choose a piece of sand that is a part of such-and-such configuration. Why would it do such a horrible thing?" But the machine is not even aware that those configurations exist, and certainly does not care to know.
9[anonymous]11y
Well, what I am pressing is the issue: You can know but not care. I thin that is what many fail to grasp about psychopaths who do bad things. They know that they are committing crimes, they just don't care. (There are some good psychopaths who has disregarded their initial stupid philosophical conclusions about morality and actually help people, but those are rarely heard.) A superintelligent paperclipper can know everything about human ethics, but only use that to manipulate humans into making more paperclips.
0Document11y
...which means they were answering questions rather than trying to kill people^W^W amuse themselves.
1[anonymous]11y
Usually, these villains actually find it amusing to see humans fail to grasp their motivations, and/or are stalling in order to get an opening through which to kill people.
1Document11y
I don't feel like enumerating examples, but I feel like I usually don't find it convincing (and that it's usually the heroes stalling and the villains helpfully cooperating).

There's of course a great many things outside your core expertise where you have no idea where to start trying, and yet they are not difficult at all.

Not really true, given five minutes and an internet connection. Oh, I couldn't do it myself, but most things that are obviously possible, I can go to Wikipedia and get a rough idea of how things work.

Though you're right that "I can't do it" isn't really a good metric of what's difficult to do.

Some fairly intelligent members of this community contacted me (and David Gerard and probably some othe

... (read more)
-3private_messaging11y
This doesn't work for made up ultra obscure games not because those games are difficult but because they're obscure? (there needs to be a rhetorical question symbol...). Are you really unable to come up with any arguments why it may be better to let an AI out? I can come up with a zillion. Especially for people who believe in one-boxing on Newcomb's problem. You keep saying that there's obvious right choice. Well, maybe if you are one hundred percent certain about this whole skynet scenario thing, there is, but even here this particular belief is not particularly common (and I'd say such a belief would indicate significant proneness to suggestion)
0linkhyrule511y
Point conceded already. I'll have to rethink my definition of "impossible." Oh, I can come up with plenty of arguments. Just none that are good enough IC to give up $10 for OOC. ... skynet scenario thing?
1private_messaging11y
I think people just play it fair, i.e. they are entering with willingness to pay for getting convinced. Of course the purely rational action is to enter it, minimize the chat window, and do some actual work making money simultaneously. But that would be too evil. Likewise it would be too evil to not give up a little money if you see that this other person would have convinced you if it was real. Letting the AI out resulting in the death of everyone. If that's off the list, well, there's nothing weird about people conceding to pay after the other person obviously put in a lot of effort. We're really used to doing that. edit: think about it like playing, say, Go, with money on the table - you pay if you lose, you get paid if you win, for example. How can the placement of stones on a board ever make you give away your money? Well it can't, your norms of polite behaviour can.
3linkhyrule511y
Um. No. I mean... just, no. That is very, very clearly not the case. And your "too evil" case just defeats the point of the experiment. Right, but that's not what's going on. It's like playing Go with money on the table, when one player can say "I don't care if you win, I win anyway.". And given the sheer amount of effort expended on these games, and the unwillingness of the players to explain how it was done after being offered large sums of money, it's fairly clear nobody's just "roleplaying", except in a way enforced by the AI.

Here are a couple of other proposals (which I haven't thought about very long) for consideration:

  • Have the AI create an internal object structure of all the concepts in the world, trying as best as it can to carve reality at its joints. Let the AI's programmers inspect this object structure, make modifications to it, then formulate a command for the AI in terms of the concepts it has discovered for itself.

  • Instead of developing a foolproof way for the AI to understand meaning, develop an OK way for the AI to understand meaning and pair it with a really good system for keeping a distribution over different meanings and asking clarifying questions.

0scav11y
That first one would be worth doing even if we didn't dare hand the AI the keys to go and make changes. To study a non-human-created ontology would be fascinating and maybe really useful.

Maybe I am missing something, but hasn't a seed AI already been planted? Intelligence (whether that means ability to achieve goals in general, or whether it means able to do what humans can do) depends on both knowledge and computing power. Currently the largest collection of knowledge and computing power on the planet is the internet. By the internet, I mean both the billions of computers connected to it, and the two billion brains of its human users. Both knowledge and computing power are growing exponentially, doubling every 1 to 2 years, in part by add... (read more)

Somewhat off-topic. The Complexity of Value thesis mentions a terminal goal of

having a diverse civilization of sentient beings leading interesting lives.

Is this an immutable goal? If so, how can it go wrong given Fragility of Value?

Did you just ask how the phrase "interesting lives" could go wrong?

2shminux11y
Right. I did. Ironic, I know. What I meant is, is properly defining "interesting" enough to avoid a UFAI, or are there some other issues to watch out for?
0hairyfigment11y
Hmm. It seems like a very small group of new lifeforms could lead properly interesting lives even if the AI killed us all beforehand and turned Earth (at least) into computing power.
2gattsuru11y
I also suspect that we'd not enjoy an AGI that aims only for threshold values for two of the three of sentient, lives, or diverse, strongly favoring the last one.
4ESRogs11y
I think I don't understand the question, what do you mean by 'immutable goal'?
[-][anonymous]11y-30

This discussion of my IEET article has generated a certain amount of confusion, because RobbBB and others have picked up on an aspect of the original article that actually has no bearing on its core argument ... so in the interests of clarity of debate I have generated a brief restatement of that core argument, framed in such a way as to (hopefully) avoid the confusion.

At issue is a hypothetical superintelligent AI that is following some goal code that was ostensibly supposed to "make humans happy", but in the course of following that code it dec... (read more)

5Kawoomba11y
This is embarrassing, but I'm not sure for whom. It could be me, just because the argument you're raising (especially given your insistence) seems to have such a trivial answer. Well, here goes: There are two scenarios, because your "goalX code" could be construed in two ways: 1) If you meant for the "goalX code" to simply refer to the code used instrumentally to get a certain class of results X (with X still saved separately in some "current goal descriptor", and not just as a historical footnote), the following applies: The goals of the AI X have not changed, just the measures it wants to take to implement that code. Indeed noone at MIRI would then argue that the superintelligent AI would not -- upon noticing the discrepancy -- in all general cases correct the broken "goalX code". Reason: The "goalX code" in this scenario is just a means to an end, and -- like all actions ("goalX code") derived from comparing models to X -- subject to modification as the agent improves its models (out of which the next action, the new and corrected "goalX" code, is derived). In this scenario the answer is trivial: The goals have not changed. X is still saved somewhere as the current goal. The AI could be wrong about the measures it implements to achieve X (i.e. 'faulty' "goalX" code maximizing for something other than X), but its superintelligence attribute implies that such errors be swiftly corrected (how could it otherwise choose the right actions to hit a small target, the definition of superintelligence in this context). 2) If you mean to say that the goal is implicitly encoded within the "goalX" code only and nowhere else as the current goal, and the "goalX" code has actually become a "goalY" code in all but name, then the agent no longer has the goal X, it now has the goal Y. There is no reason at all to conclude that the agent would switch to some other goal simply because it once had that goal. It can understand its own genesis and its original purpose all it wants,
2MugaSofer11y
I (notice that I) am confused by this comment. This seems obviously impossible, yes; so obviously impossible, in fact, that only one example springs to mind (surely the AI will be smart enough to realize it's programmed goals are wrong!) In particular, this really doesn't seem to apply to the example of the "Dopamine Drip scenario" plan, which, if I'm reading you correctly, it was intended to. What am I missing here? I know there must be something. So ... you come up with the optimal plan, and then check with puny humans to see if that's what they would have decided anyway? And if they say "no, that's a terrible idea" then you assume they knew better than you? Why would anyone even bother building such a superintelligent AI? Isn't the whole point of creating a superintelligence that it can understand things we can't, and come up with plans we would never conceive of, or take centuries to develop?
1[anonymous]11y
I'm afraid you have lost me: when you say "This seems obviously impossible..." I am not clear which aspect strikes you as obviously impossible. Before you answer that, though: remember that I am describing someone ELSE'S suggestion about how the AI will behave ..... I am not advocating this as a believable scenario! In fact I am describing that other person's suggestion in such a way that the impossibility is made transparent. So I, too, believe that this hypothetical AI is fraught with contradictions. The Dopamine Drip scenario is that the AI knows that it has a set of goals designed to achieve a certain set of results, and since it has an extreme level of intelligence it is capable of understanding that very often a "target set of results" can be described, but not enumerated as a closed set. It knows that very often in its behavior it (or someone else) will design some goal code that is supposed to achieve that "target set of results", but because of the limitations of goal code writing, the goal code can malfunction. The Dopamine Drip scenario is only one example of how a discrepancy can arise -- in that case, the "target set of results" is the promotion of human happiness, and then the rest of the scenario follows straightforwardly. Nobody I have talked to so far misunderstands what the DD scenario implies, and how it fits that pattern. So could you clarify how you think it does not?
4MugaSofer11y
AI: Yes, this is in complete contradiction of my programmed goals. Ha ha, I'm gonna do it anyway. Of course, yeah. I'm basically accusing you of failure to steelman/misinterpreting someone; I, for one, have never heard this suggested (beyond the one example I gave, which I don't think is what you had in mind.) uhuh. So, any AI smart enough to understand it's creators, right? waaait I think I know where this is going. Are you saying an AI would somehow want to do what it's programmers intended rather than what they actually programmed it to do? Yeah, sorry, I can see how programmers might accidentally write code that creates dopamine world and not eutopia. I just don't see how this is supposed to connect to the idea of an AI spontaneously violating it's programmed goals. In this case, surely that would look like "hey guys, you know your programming said to maximise happiness? You guys should be more careful, that actually means "drug everybody". Anyway, I'm off to torture some people."
1hairyfigment11y
Yeah, I can think of two general ways to interpret this: * In a variant of CEV, the AI uses our utterances as evidence for what we would have told it if we thought more quickly etc. No single utterance carries much risk because the AI will collect lots of evidence and this will likely correct any misleading effects. * Having successfully translated the quoted instruction into formal code, we add another possible point of failure.
[-][anonymous]11y-30

I just want to say that I am pressured for time at the moment, or I would respond at greater length. But since I just wrote the following directly to Rob, I will put it out here as my first attempt to explain the misunderstanding that I think is most relevant here....

My real point (in the Dumb Superintelligence article) was essentially that there is little point discussing AI Safety with a group of people for whom 'AI' means a kind of strawman-AI that is defined to be (a) So awesomely powerful that it can outwit the whole intelligence of the human race, b... (read more)

So awesomely stupid that it thinks that the goal 'make humans happy' could be satisfied by an action that makes every human on the planet say 'This would NOT make me happy: Don't do it!!!'

The AI is not stupid here. In fact, it's right and they're wrong. It will make them happy. Of course, the AI knows that they're not happy in the present contemplating the wireheaded future that awaits them, but the AI is utilitarian and doesn't care. They'll just have to live with that cost while it works on the means to make them happy, at which point the temporary utility hit will be worth it.

The real answer is that they cared about more than just being happy. The AI also knows that, and it knows that it would have been wise for the humans to program it to care about all their values instead of just happiness. But what tells it to care?

Richard: I'll stick with your original example. In your hypothetical, I gather, programmers build a seed AI (a not-yet-superintelligent AGI that will recursively self-modify to become superintelligent after many stages) that includes, among other things, a large block of code I'll call X.

The programmers think of this block of code as an algorithm that will make the seed AI and its descendents maximize human pleasure. But they don't actually know for sure that X will maximize human pleasure — as you note, 'human pleasure' is an unbelievably complex concept, so no human could be expected to actually code it into a machine without making any mistakes. And writing 'this algorithm is supposed to maximize human pleasure' into the source code as a comment is not going to change that. (See the first few paragraphs of Truly Part of You.)

Now, why exactly should we expect the superintelligence that grows out of the seed to value what we really mean by 'pleasure', when all we programmed it to do was X, our probably-failed attempt at summarizing our values? We didn't program it to rewrite its source code to better approximate our True Intentions, or the True Meaning of our in-code comments. And... (read more)

I'm really glad you posted this, even though it may not enlighten the person it's in reply to: this is an error lots of people make when you try to explain the FAI problem to them, and the "two gaps" explanation seems like a neat way to make it clear.

6XiXiDu11y
We seem to agree that for an AI to talk itself out of a confinement (like in the AI box experiment), the AI would have to understand what humans mean and want. As far as I understand your position, you believe that it is difficult to make an AI care to do what humans want, apart from situations where it is temporarily instrumentally useful to do what humans want. Do you agree that for such an AI to do what humans want, in order to deceive them, humans would have to succeed at either encoding the capability to understand what humans want, or succeed at encoding the capability to make itself capable of understanding what humans want? My question, do you believe there to be a conceptual difference between encoding capabilities, what an AI can do, and goals, what an AI will do? As far as I understand, capabilities and goals are both encodings of how humans want an AI to behave. In other words, humans intend an AI to be intelligent and use its intelligence in a certain way. And in order to be an existential risk, humans need to succeed making and AI behave intelligently but fail at making it use its intelligence in a way that does not kill everyone. Do you agree?

Your summaries of my views here are correct, given that we're talking about a superintelligence.

My question, do you believe there to be a conceptual difference between encoding capabilities, what an AI can do, and goals, what an AI will do? As far as I understand, capabilities and goals are both encodings of how humans want an AI to behave.

Well, there's obviously a difference; 'what an AI can do' and 'what an AI will do' mean two different things. I agree with you that this difference isn't a particularly profound one, and the argument shouldn't rest on it.

What the argument rests on is, I believe, that it's easier to put a system into a positive feedback loop that helps it better model its environment and/or itself, than it is to put a system into a positive feedback loop that helps it better pursue a specific set of highly complex goals we have in mind (but don't know how to fully formalize).

If the AI incorrectly models some feature of itself or its environment, reality will bite back. But if it doesn't value our well-being, how do we make reality bite back and change the AI's course? How do we give our morality teeth?

Whatever goals it initially tries to pursue, it will fail i... (read more)

-1XiXiDu11y
This can be understood as both a capability and as a goal. What humans mean an AI to do is to undergo recursive self-improvement. What humans mean an AI to be capable of is to undergo recursive self-improvement. I am only trying to clarify the situation here. Please correct me if you think that above is wrong. I do not disagree with the orthogonality thesis insofar as an AI can have goals that interfere with human values in a catastrophic way, possibly leading to human extinction. I believe here is where we start to disagree. I do not understand how the "improvement" part of recursive self-improvement can be independent of properties such as the coherence and specificity of the goal the AI is supposed to achieve. Either you have a perfectly specified goal, such as "maximizing paperclips", where it is clear what "maximization" means, and what the properties of "paperclips" are, or there is some amount of uncertainty about what it means to achieve the goal of "maximizing paperclips". Consider the programmers forgot to encode what shape the paperclips are supposed to have. How do you suppose would that influence the behavior of the AI. Would it just choose some shape at random, or would it conclude that shape is not part of its goal? If the former, where would the decision to randomly choose a shape come from? If the latter, what would it mean to maximize shapeless objects? I am just trying to understand what kind of AI you have in mind. This is a clearer point of disagreement. An AI needs to be able to draw clear lines where exploration ends and exploitation starts. For example, an AI that thinks about every decision for a year would never get anything done. An AI also needs to discount low probability possibilities, as to not be vulnerable to internal or external Pascal's mugging scenarios. These are problems that humans need to solve and encode in order for an AI to be a danger. But these problems are in essence confinements, or bounds on how an AI is goi
3ArisKatsaris11y
"uncertainty" is in your human understanding of the program, not in the actual program. A program doesn't go "I don't know what I'm supposed to do next", it follows instructions step-by-step. It would mean exactly what it's programmed to mean, without any uncertainty in it at all.
2Rob Bensinger11y
Yes. To divide it more finely, it could be a terminal goal, or an instrumental goal; it could be a goal of the AI, or a goal of the human; it could be a goal the human would reflectively endorse, or a goal the human would reflectively reject but is inadvertently promoting anyway. I agree that, at a given time, the AI must have a determinate goal. (Though the encoding of that goal may be extremely complicated and unintentional. And it may need to be time-indexed.) I'm not dogmatically set on the idea that a self-improving AGI is easy to program; at this point it wouldn't shock me if it took over 100 years to finish making the thing. What you're alluding to are the variety of ways we could fail to construct a self-improving AGI at all. Obviously there are plenty of ways to fail to make an AGI that can improve its own ability to track things about its environment in a domain-general way, without bursting into flames at any point. If there weren't plenty of ways to fail, we'd have already succeeded. Our main difference in focus is that I'm worried about what happens if we do succeed in building a self-improving AGI that doesn't randomly melt down. Conditioned on our succeeding in the next few centuries in making a machine that actually optimizes for anything at all, and that optimizes for its own ability to generally represent its environment in a way that helps it in whatever else it's optimizing for, we should currently expect humans to go extinct as a result. Even if the odds of our succeeding in the next few centuries were small, it would be worth thinking about how to make that extinction event less likely. (Though they aren't small.) I gather that you think that making an artificial process behave in any particular way at all (i.e., optimizing for something), while recursively doing surgery on its own source code in the radical way MIRI is interested in, is very tough. My concern is that, no matter how true that is, it doesn't entail that if we succeed at that
-1XiXiDu11y
I am trying to understand if the kind of AI, that is underlying the scenario that you have in mind, is a possible and likely outcome of human AI research. As far as I am aware, as a layman, goals and capabilities are intrinsically tied together. How could a chess computer be capable of winning against humans at chess without the terminal goal of achieving a checkmate? Coherent and specific goals are necessary to (1) decide which actions are instrumental useful (2) judge the success of self-improvement. If the given goal is logically incoherent, or too vague for the AI to be able to tell apart success from failure, would it work at all? If I understand your position correctly, you would expect a chess playing general AI, one that does not know about checkmate, instead of "winning at chess", to improve against such goals as "modeling states of affairs well" or "make sure nothing intervenes chess playing". You believe that these goals do not have to be programmed by humans, because they are emergent goals, an instrumental consequence of being general intelligent. These universal instrumental goals, these "AI drives", seem to be a major reason for why you believe it to be important to make the AI care about behaving correctly. You believe that these AI drives are a given, and the only way to prevent an AI from being an existential risk is to channel these drives, is to focus this power on protecting and amplifying human values. My perception is that these drives that you imagine are not special and will be as difficult to get "right" than any other goal. I think that the idea that humans not only want to make an AI exhibit such drives, but also succeed at making such drives emerge, is a very unlikely outcome. As far as I am aware, here is what you believe an AI to want: * It will want to self-improve * It will want to be rational * It will try to preserve their utility functions * It will try to prevent counterfeit utility * It will be self-protective It wil
5Rob Bensinger11y
Humans are capable of winning at chess without the terminal goal of doing so. Nor were humans designed by evolution specifically for chess. Why should we expect a general superintelligence to have intelligence that generalizes less easily than a human's does? You keep coming back to this 'logically incoherent goals' and 'vague goals' idea. Honestly, I don't have the slightest idea what you mean by those things. A goal that can't motivate one to do anything ain't a goal; it's decor, it's noise. 'Goals' are just the outcomes systems tend to produce, especially systems too complex to be easily modeled as, say, physical or chemical processes. Certainly it's possible for goals to be incredibly complicated, or to vary over time. But there's no such thing as a 'logically incoherent outcome'. So what's relevant to our purposes is whether failing to make a powerful optimization process human-friendly will also consistently stop the process from optimizing for anything whatsoever. Conditioned on a self-modifying AGI (say, an AGI that can quine its source code, edit it, then run the edited program and repeat the process) achieving domain-general situation-manipulating abilities (i.e., intelligence), analogous to humans' but to a far greater degree, which of the AI drives do you think are likely to be present, and which absent? 'It wants to self-improve' is taken as a given, because that's the hypothetical we're trying to assess. Now, should we expect such a machine to be indifferent to its own survival and to the use of environmental resources? Sometimes a more complex phenomenon is the implication of a simpler hypothesis. A much narrower set of goals will have intelligence-but-not-resource-acquisition as instrumental than will have both as instrumental, because it's unlikely to hit upon a goal that requires large reasoning abilities but does not call for many material resources. You haven't given arguments suggesting that here. At most, you've given arguments against expe
0TheOtherDave11y
Well, I'm not sure what XXD means by them, but... G1 ("Everything is painted red") seems like a perfectly coherent goal. A system optimizing G1 paints things red, hires people to paint things red, makes money to hire people to paint things red, invents superior paint-distribution technologies to deposit a layer of red paint over things, etc. G2 ("Everything is painted blue") similarly seems like a coherent goal. G3 (G1 AND G2) seems like an incoherent goal. A system with that goal... well, I'm not really sure what it does.
2Rob Bensinger11y
A system's goals have to be some event that can be brought about. In our world, '2+2=4' and '2+2=5' are not goals; 'everything is painted red and not-red' may not be a goal for similar reasons. When we're talking about an artificial intelligence's preferences, we're talking about the things it tends to optimize for, not the things it 'has in mind' or the things it believes are its preferences. This is part of what makes the terminology misleading, and is also why we don't ask 'can a superintelligence be irrational?'. Irrationality is dissonance between my experienced-'goals' (and/or, perhaps, reflective-second-order-'goals') and my what-events-I-produce-'goals'; but we don't care about the superintelligence's phenomenology. We only care about what events it tends to produce. Tabooing 'goal' and just talking about the events a process-that-models-its-environment-and-directs-the-future tends to produce would, I think, undermine a lot of XiXiDu's intuitions about goals being complex explicit objects you have to painstakingly code in. The only thing that makes it more useful to model a superintelligence as having 'goals' than modeling a blue-minimizing robot as having 'goals' is that the superintelligence responds to environmental variation in a vastly more complicated way. (Because, in order to be even a mediocre programmer, its model-of-the-world-that-determines-action has to be more complicated than a simple camcorder feed.)
1TheOtherDave11y
Oh. Well, in that case, all right. If there exists some X a system S is in fact optimizing for, and what we mean by "S's goals" is X, regardless of what target S "has in mind", then sure, I agree that systems never have vague or logically incoherent goals. Well, wait. Where did "models its environment" come from? If we're talking about the things S optimizes its environment for, not the things S "has in mind", then it would seem that whether S models its environment or not is entirely irrelevant to the conversation. In fact, given how you've defined "goal" here, I'm not sure why we're talking about intelligence at all. If that is what we mean by "goal" then intelligence has nothing to do with goals, or optimizing for goals. Volcanoes have goals, in that sense. Protons have goals. I suspect I'm still misunderstanding you.
2Rob Bensinger11y
From Eliezer's Belief in Intelligence: "Since I am so uncertain of Kasparov's moves, what is the empirical content of my belief that 'Kasparov is a highly intelligent chess player'? What real-world experience does my belief tell me to anticipate? [...] "The empirical content of my belief is the testable, falsifiable prediction that the final chess position will occupy the class of chess positions that are wins for Kasparov, rather than drawn games or wins for Mr. G. [...] The degree to which I think Kasparov is a 'better player' is reflected in the amount of probability mass I concentrate into the 'Kasparov wins' class of outcomes, versus the 'drawn game' and 'Mr. G wins' class of outcomes." From Measuring Optimization Power: "When I think you're a powerful intelligence, and I think I know something about your preferences, then I'll predict that you'll steer reality into regions that are higher in your preference ordering. [...] "Ah, but how do you know a mind's preference ordering? Suppose you flip a coin 30 times and it comes up with some random-looking string - how do you know this wasn't because a mind wanted it to produce that string? "This, in turn, is reminiscent of the Minimum Message Length formulation of Occam's Razor: if you send me a message telling me what a mind wants and how powerful it is, then this should enable you to compress your description of future events and observations, so that the total message is shorter. Otherwise there is no predictive benefit to viewing a system as an optimization process. This criterion tells us when to take the intentional stance. "(3) Actually, you need to fit another criterion to take the intentional stance - there can't be a better description that averts the need to talk about optimization. This is an epistemic criterion more than a physical one - a sufficiently powerful mind might have no need to take the intentional stance toward a human, because it could just model the regularity of our brains like movi
1TheOtherDave11y
Yes, that seems plausible. I would say rather that modeling one's environment is an effective tool for consistently optimizing for some specific unlikely thing X across a range of environments, so optimizers that do so will be more successful at optimizing for X, all else being equal, but it more or less amounts to the same thing. But... so what? I mean, it also seems plausible that optimizers that explicitly represent X as a goal will be more successful at consistently optimizing for X, all else being equal... but that doesn't stop you from asserting that explicit representation of X is irrelevant to whether a system has X as its goal. So why isn't modeling the environment equally irrelevant? Both features, on your account, are optional enhancements an optimizer might or might not display. It keeps seeming like all the stuff you quote and say before your last two paragraphs ought to provide an answer that question, but after reading it several times I can't see what answer it might be providing. Perhaps your argument is just going over my head, in which case I apologize for wasting your time by getting into a conversation I'm not equipped for..
-1Rob Bensinger11y
Maybe it will help to keep in mind that this is one small branch of my conversation with Alexander Kruel. Alexander's two main objections to funding Friendly Artificial Intelligence research are that (1) advanced intelligence is very complicated and difficult to make, and (2) getting a thing to pursue a determinate goal at all is extraordinarily difficult. So a superintelligence will never be invented, or at least not for the foreseeable future; so we shouldn't think about SI-related existential risks. (This is my steel-manning of his view. The way he actually argues seems to instead be predicated on inventing SI being tied to perfecting Friendliness Theory, but I haven't heard a consistent argument for why that should be so.) Both of these views, I believe, are predicated on a misunderstanding of how simple and disjunctive 'intelligence' and 'goal' are, for present purposes. So I've mainly been working on tabooing and demystifying those concepts. Intelligence is simply a disposition to efficiently convert a wide variety of circumstances into some set of specific complex events. Goals are simply the circumstances that occur more often when a given intelligence is around. These are both very general and disjunctive ideas, in stark contrast to Friendliness; so it will be difficult to argue that a superintelligence simply can't be made, and difficult too to argue that optimizing for intelligence requires one to have a good grasp on Friendliness Theory. Because I'm trying to taboo the idea of superintelligence, and explain what it is about seed AI that will allow it to start recursively improving its own intelligence, I've been talking a lot about the important role modeling plays in high-level intelligent processes. Recognizing what a simple idea modeling is, and how far it gets one toward superintelligence once one has domain-general modeling proficiency, helps a great deal with greasing the intuition pump 'Explosive AGI is a simple, disjunctive event, a low-hanging
0TheOtherDave11y
I suppose it helps, if only in that it establishes that much of what you're saying to me is actually being addressed indirectly to somebody else, so it ought not surprise me that I can't quite connect much of it to anything I've said. Thanks for clarifying your intent. For my own part, I'm certainly not functioning here as Alex's proxy; while I don't consider explosive intelligence growth as much of a foregone conclusion as many folks here do, I also don't consider Alex's passionate rejection of the possibility justified, and have had extended discussions on related subjects with him myself in past years. So most of what you write in response to Alex's positions is largely talking right past me. (Which is not to say that you ought not be doing it. If this is in effect a private argument between you and Alex that I've stuck my nose into, let me know and I'll apologize and leave y'all to it in peace.) Anyway, I certainly agree that a system might have a representation of its goals that is distinct from the mechanisms that cause it to pursue those goals. I have one of those, myself. (Indeed, several.) But if a system is capable of affecting its pursuit of its goals (for example, if it is capable of correcting the effects of a state-change that would, uncorrected, have led to value drift), it is not merely interacting with maps. It is also interacting with the territory... that is, it is modifying the mechanisms that cause it to pursue those goals... in order to bring that territory into line with its pre-existing map. And in order to do that, it must have such a mechanism, and that mechanism must be consistently isomorphic to its representations of its goals. Yes?
0Rob Bensinger11y
Right. I'm not saying that there aren't things about the AI that make it behave the way it does; what the AI optimizes for is a deterministic result of its properties plus environment. I'm just saying that something about the environment might be necessary for it to have the sorts of preferences we can most usefully model it as having; and/or there may be multiple equally good candidates for the parts of the AI that are its values, or their encoding. If we reify preferences in an uncautious way, we'll start thinking of the AI's 'desires' too much as its first-person-experienced urges, as opposed to just thinking of them as the effect the local system we're talking about tends to have on the global system.
1TheOtherDave11y
Hm. So, all right. Cconsider two systems, S1 and S2, both of which happen to be constructed in such a way that right now, they are maximizing the number of things in their environment that appear blue to human observers, by going around painting everything blue. Suppose we add to the global system a button that alters all human brains so that everything appears blue to us, and we find that S1 presses the button and stops painting, and S2 ignores the button and goes on painting. Suppose that similarly, across a wide range of global system changes, we find that S1 consistently chooses the action that maximizes the number of things in its environment that appear blue to human observers, while S2 consistently goes on painting. I agree with you that if I reify S2's preferences in an uncautious way, I might start thinkng of S2 as "wanting to paint things blue" or "wanting everything to be blue" or "enjoying painting things blue" or as having various other similar internal states that might simply not exist, and that I do better to say it has a particular effect on the global system. S2 simply paints things blue; whether it has the goal of painting things blue or not, I have no idea. I am far less comfortable saying that S1 has no goals, precisely because of how flexibly and consistently it is revising its actions so as to consistently create a state-change across wide ranges of environments. To use Dennett's terminology, I am more willing to adopt an intentional stance with respect to S1 than S2. If I've understood your position correctly, you're saying that I'm unjustified in making that distinction... that to the extent that we can say that S1 and S2 have "goals," the word "goals" simply refer to the state changes they create in the world. Initially they both have the goal of painting things blue, but S1's goals keep changing: first it paints things blue, then it presses a button, then it does other things. And, sure, I can make up some story like "S1 maximizes th
0Rob Bensinger11y
I think you're switching back and forth between a Rational Choice Theory 'preference' and an Ideal Self Theory 'preference'. To disambiguate, I'll call the former R-preferences and the latter I-preferences. My R-preferences -- the preferences you'd infer I had from my behaviors if you treated me as a rational agent -- are extremely convoluted, indeed they need to be strongly time-indexed to maintain consistency. My I-preferences are the things I experience a desire for, whether or not that desire impacts my behavior. (Or they're the things I would, with sufficient reflective insight and understanding into my situation, experience a desire for.) We have no direct evidence from your story addressing whether S1 or S2 have I-preferences at all. Are they sentient? Do they create models of their own cognitive states? Perhaps we have a little more evidence that S1 has I-preferences than that S2 does, but only by assuming that a system whose goals require more intelligence or theory-of-mind will have a phenomenology more similar to a human's. I wouldn't be surprised if that assumption turns out to break down in some important ways, as we explore more of mind-space. But my main point was that it doesn't much matter what S1 or S2's I-preferences are, if all we're concerned about is what effect they'll have on their environment. Then we should think about their R-preferences, and bracket exactly what psychological mechanism is resulting in their behavior, and how that psychological mechanism relates to itself. I've said that R-preferences are theoretical constructs that happen to be useful a lot of the time for modeling complex behavior; I'm not sure whether I-preferences are closer to nature's joints. S1's instrumental goals may keep changing, because its circumstances are changing. But I don't think its terminal goals are changing. The only reason to model it as having two completely incommensurate goal sets at different times would be if there were no simple terminal go
0TheOtherDave11y
I don't think I'm switching back and forth between I-preferences and R-preferences. I don't think I'm talking about I-preferences at all, nor that I ever have been. I completely agree with you that they don't matter for our purposes here, so if I am talking about them, I am very very confused. (Which is certainly possible.) But I don't think that R-preferences (preferences, goals, etc.) can sensibly be equated with the actual effects a local system has on a global system. If they could, we could talk equally sensibly about earthquakes having R-preferences (preferences, goals, etc.), and I don't think it's sensible to talk that way. R-preferences (preferences, goals, etc.) are, rather, internal states of a system S. If S is a competent optimizer (or "rational agent," if you prefer) with R-preferences (preferences, goals, etc.) P, the existence of P will cause S to behave in ways that cause isomorphic effects (E) on a global system, so we can use observations of E as evidence of P (positing that S is a competent optimizer) or as evidence that S is a competent optimizer (positing the existence of P) or a little of both. But however we slice it, P is not the same thing as E, E is merely evidence of P's existence. We can infer P's existence in other ways as well, even if we never observe E... indeed, even if E never gets produced. And the presence or absence of a given P in S is something we can be mistaken about; there's a fact of the matter. I think you disagree with the above paragraph, because you describe R-preferences (preferences, goals, etc.) as theoretical constructs rather than parts of the system, which suggests that there is no fact of the matter... a different theoretical approach might never include P, and it would not be mistaken, it would just be a different theoretical approach. I also think that because way back at the beginning of this exchange when I suggested "paint everything red AND paint everything blue" was an example of an incoherent goa
0Rob Bensinger11y
You can treat earthquakes and thunderstorms and even individual particles as having 'preferences'. It's just not very useful to do so, because we can give an equally simple explanation for what effects things like earthquakes tend to have that is more transparent about the physical mechanism at work. The intentional strategy is a heuristic for black-boxing physical processes that are too complicated to usefully describe in their physical dynamics, but that can be discussed in terms of the complicated outcomes they tend to promote. (I'd frame it: We're exploiting the fact that humans are intuitively dualistic by taking the non-physical modeling device of humans (theory of mind, etc.) and appropriating this mental language and concept-web for all sorts of systems whose nuts and bolts we want to bracket. Slightly regimented mental concepts and terms are useful, not because they apply to all the systems we're talking about in the same way they were originally applied to humans, but because they're vague in ways that map onto the things we're uncertain about or indifferent to.) 'X wants to do Y' means that the specific features of X tend to result in Y when its causal influence is relatively large and direct. But, for clarity's sake, we adopt the convention of only dropping into want-speak when a system is too complicated for us to easily grasp in mechanistic terms why it's having these complex effects, yet when we can predict that, whatever the mechanism happens to be, it is the sort of mechanism that has those particular complex effects. Thus we speak of evolution as an optimization process, as though it had a 'preference ordering' in the intuitively human (i.e., I-preference) sense, even though in the phenomenological sense it's just as mindless as an earthquake. We do this because black-boxing the physical mechanisms and just focusing on the likely outcomes is often predictively useful here, and because the outcomes are complicated and specific. This is useful for
0TheOtherDave11y
Yes, agreed, for some fuzzy notion of "easily grasp" and "too complicated." That is, there's a sense in which thunderstorms are too complicated for me to describe in mechanistic terms why they're having the effects they have... I certainly can't predict those effects. But there's also a sense in which I can describe (and even predict) the effects of a thunderstorm that feels simple, whereas I can't do the same thing for a human being without invoking "want-speak"/intentional stance. I'm not sure any of this is [i]justified[/i], but I agree that it is what we do... this is how we speak, and we draw these distinctions. So far, so good. I'm not really sure what you mean by "in the AI" here, but I guess I agree that the boundary between an agent and its environment is always a fuzzy one. So, OK, I suppose we can include things about the environment "in the AI" if we choose. (I can similarly choose to include things about the environment "in myself.") So far, so good. Here is where you lose me again... once again you talk as though there's simply no fact of the matter as to which preference the AI has, merely our choice as to how we model it. But it seems to me that there are observations I can make which would provide evidence one way or the other. For example, if it has the preference 'surround the Sun with a dyson sphere,' then in an environment lacking the Sun I would expect it to first seek to create the Sun... how else can it implement its preferences? Whereas if it has the preference 'conditioned on there being a Sun, surround it with a dyson sphere'; in an environment lacking the Sun I would not expect it to create the Sun. So does the AI seek create the Sun in such an environment, or not? Surely that doesn't depend on how I choose to model it. The AI's preference is whatever it is, and controls its behavior. Of course, as you say, if the real world always includes a sun, then I might not be able to tell which preference the AI has. (Then again I might... th
0Vladimir_Nesov11y
This sounds like a potentially confusing level of simplification; a goal should be regarded as at least a way of comparing possible events. Its behavior is what makes its goal important. But in a system designed to follow an explicitly specified goal, it does make sense to talk of its goal apart from its behavior. Even though its behavior will reflect its goal, the goal itself will reflect itself better. If the goal is implemented as a part of the system, other parts of the system can store some information about the goal, certain summaries or inferences based on it. This information can be thought of as beliefs about the goal. And if the goal is not "logically transparent", that is its specification is such that making concrete conclusions about what it states in particular cases is computationally expensive, then the system never knows what its goal says explicitly, it only ever has beliefs about particular aspects of the goal.
0Rob Bensinger11y
Perhaps, but I suspect that for most possible AIs there won't always be a fact of the matter about where its preference is encoded. The blue-minimizing robot is a good example. If we treat it as a perfectly rational agent, then we might say that it has temporally stable preferences that are very complicated and conditional; or we might say that its preferences change at various times, and are partly encoded, for instance, in the properties of the color-inverting lens on its camera. An AGI's response to environmental fluctuation will probably be vastly more complicated than a blue-minimizer's, but the same sorts of problems arise in modeling it. I think it's more useful to think of rational-choice-theory-style preferences as useful theoretical constructs -- like a system's center of gravity, or its coherently extrapolated volition -- than as real objects in the machine's hardware or software. This sidesteps the problem of haggling over which exact preferences a system has, how those preferences are distributed over the environment, how to decide between causally redundant encodings which is 'really' the preference encoding, etc. See my response to Dave.
4Vladimir_Nesov11y
"Goal" is a natural idea for describing AIs with limited resources: these AIs won't be able to make optimal decisions, and their decisions can't be easily summarized in terms of some goal, but unlike the blue-minimizing robot they have a fixed preference ordering that doesn't gradually drift away from what it was originally, and eventually they tend to get better at following it. For example, if a goal is encrypted, and it takes a huge amount of computation to decrypt it, system's behavior prior to that point won't depend on the goal, but it's going to work on decrypting it and eventually will follow it. This encrypted goal is probably more predictive of long-term consequences than anything else in the details of the original design, but it also doesn't predict its behavior during the first stage (and if there is only a small probability that all resources in the universe will allow decrypting the goal, it's probable that system's behavior will never depend on the goal). Similarly, even if there is no explicit goal, as in the case of humans, it might be possible to work with an idealized goal that, like the encrypted goal, can't be easily evaluated, and so won't influence behavior for a long time. My point is that there are natural examples where goals and the character of behavior don't resemble each other, so that each can't be easily inferred from the other, while both can be observed as aspects of the system. It's useful to distinguish these ideas.
0Rob Bensinger11y
I agree preferences aren't reducible to actual behavior. But I think they are reducible to dispositions to behave, i.e., behavior across counterfactual worlds. If a system prefers a specific event Z, that means that, across counterfactual environments you could have put it in, the future would on average have had more Z the more its specific distinguishing features had a large and direct causal impact on the world.
0Vladimir_Nesov11y
The examples I used seem to apply to "dispositions" to behave, in the same way (I wasn't making this distinction). There are settings where the goal can't be clearly inferred from behavior, or collection of hypothetical behaviors in response to various environments, at least if we keep environments relatively close to what might naturally occur, even as in those settings the goal can be observed "directly" (defined as an idealization based in AI's design). An AI with encypted goal (i.e. the AI itself doesn't know the goal in explicit form, but the goal can be abstractly defined as the result of decryption) won't behave in accordance with it in any environment that doesn't magically let it decrypt its goal quickly, there is no tendency to push the events towards what the encrypted goal specifies, until the goal is decrypted (which might be never with high probability).
0Rob Bensinger11y
I don't think a sufficiently well-encrypted 'preference' should be counted as a preference for present purposes. In principle, you can treat any physical chunk of matter as an 'encrypted preference', because if the AI just were a key of exactly the right shape, then it could physically interact with the lock in question to acquire a new optimization target. But if neither the AI nor anything very similar to the AI in nearby possible worlds actually acts as a key of the requisite sort, then we should treat the parts of the world that a distant AI could interact with to acquire a preference as, in our world, mere window dressing. Perhaps if we actually built a bunch of AIs, and one of them was just like the others except where others of its kind had a preference module, it had a copy of The Wind in the Willows, we would speak of this new AI as having an 'encrypted preference' consisting of a book, with no easy way to treat that book as a decision criterion like its brother- and sister-AIs do for their homologous components. But I don't see any reason right now to make our real-world usage of the word 'preference' correspond to that possible world's usage. It's too many levels of abstraction away from what we should be worried about, which are the actual real-world effects different AI architectures would have.
-1XiXiDu11y
Here is what I mean: Evolution was able to come up with cats. Cats are immensely complex objects. Evolution did not intend to create cats. Now consider you wanted to create an expected utility maximizer to accomplish something similar, except that it would be goal-directed, think ahead, and jump fitness gaps. Further suppose that you wanted your AI to create qucks, instead of cats. How would it do this? Given that your AI is not supposed to search design space at random, but rather look for something particular, you would have to define what exactly qucks are. The problem is that defining what a quck is, is the hardest part. And since nobody has any idea what a quck is, nobody can design a quck creator. The point is that thinking about the optimization of optimization is misleading, as most of the difficulty is with defining what to optimize, rather than figuring out how to optimize it. In other words, the efficiency of e.g. the scientific method depends critically on being able to formulate a specific hypothesis. Trying to create an optimization optimizer would be akin to creating an autonomous car to find the shortest route between Gotham City and Atlantis. The problem is not how to get your AI to calculate a route, or optimize how to calculate such a route, but rather that the problem is not well-defined. You have no idea what it means to travel between two fictional cities. Which in turn means that you have no idea what optimization even means in this context, let alone meta-level optimization.
0linkhyrule511y
The problem is, you don't have to program the bit that says "now make yourself more intelligent." You only have to program the bit that says "here's how to make a new copy of yourself, and here's how to prove it shares your goals without running out of math." And the bit that says "Try things until something works, then figure out why it worked." AKA modeling. The AI isn't actually an intelligence optimizer. But it notes that when it takes certain actions, it is better able to model the world, which in turn allows it to make more paperclips (or whatever). So it'll take those actions more often.
-7XiXiDu11y
1Moss_Piglet11y
(Note: I'm also a layman, so my non-expert opinions necessarily come with a large salt side-dish) My guess here is that most of the "AI Drives" to self-improve, be rational, retaining it's goal structure, etc. are considered necessary for a functional learning/self-improving algorithm. If the program cannot recognize and make rules for new patterns observed in data, make sound inferences based on known information or keep after it's objective it will not be much of an AGI at all; it will not even be able to function as well as a modern targeted advertising program. The rest, such as self-preservation, are justified as being logical requirements of the task. Rather than having self-preservation as a terminal value, the paperclip maximizer will value it's own existence as an optimal means of proliferating paperclips. It makes intuitive sense that those sorts of 'drives' would emerge from most-any goal, but then again my intuition is not necessarily very useful for these sorts of questions. This point might also be a source of confusion; As Dr Valiant (great name or the greatest name?) classifies things in Probably Approximately Correct, Winning Chess would be a 'theoryful' task while Discovering (Interesting) Mathematical Proofs would be a 'theoryless' one. In essence, the theoryful has simple and well established rules for the process which could be programmed optimally in advance with little-to-no modification needed afterwards while the theoryless is complex and messy enough that an imperfect (Probably Approximately Correct) learning process would have to be employed to suss out all the rules. Now obviously the program will benefit from labeling in it's training data for what is and is not an "interesting" mathematical proof, otherwise it can just screw around with computationally-cheap arithmetic proofs (1 + 1 = 2, 1.1 + 1 = 2.1, 1.2 + 1 = 2.2, etc.) until the heat death of the universe. Less obviously, as the hidden tank example shows, insufficient labeling
-2XiXiDu11y
To explain what I have in mind, consider Ben Goertzel's example of how to test for general intelligence: I do not disagree that such a robot, when walking towards the classroom, if it is being obstructed by a fellow human student, could attempt to kill this human, in order to get to the classroom. Killing a fellow human, from the perspective of the human creators of the robot, is clearly a mistake. From a human perspective, it means that the robot failed. You believe that the robot was just following its programming/construction. Indeed, the robot is its programming. I agree with this. I agree that the human creators were mistaken about what dynamic state sequence the robot will exhibit by computing the code. What the "dumb superintelligence" argument tries to highlight is that if humans are incapable of predicting such behavior, then they will also be mistaken about predicting behavior that is harmful to the robots power. For example, while fighting with the human in order to kill it, for a split-second it mistakes its own arm with that of the human and breaks it. You might now argue that such a robot isn't much of a risk. It is pretty stupid to mistake its own arm with that of the enemy it tries to kill. True. But the point is that there is no relevant difference between failing to predict behavior that will harm the robot itself, and behavior that will harm a human. Except that you might believe the former is much easier than the latter. I dispute this. For the robot to master a complex environment, like a university full of humans, without harming itself, or decreasing the chance of achieving its goals, is already very difficult. Not stabbing or strangling other human students is not more difficult than not jumping from the 4th floor, instead of taking the stairs. This is the "dumb superintelligence" argument.
8Rob Bensinger11y
To some extent. Perhaps it would be helpful to distinguish four different kinds of defeater: 1. early intelligence defeater: We try to build a seed AI, but our self-rewriting AI quickly hits a wall or explodes. This is most likely if we start with a subhuman intelligence and have serious resource constraints (so we can't, e.g., just run an evolutionary algorithm over millions of copies of the AGI until we happen upon a variant that works). 2. late intelligence defeater: The seed AI works just fine, but at some late stage, when it's already at or near superintelligence, it suddenly explodes. Apparently it went down a blind alley at some point early on that led it to plateau or self-destruct later on, and neither it nor humanity is smart enough yet to figure out where exactly the problem arose. So the FOOM fizzles. 3. early Friendliness defeater: From the outset, the seed AI's behavior already significantly diverges from Friendliness. 4. late Friendliness defeater: The seed AI starts off as a reasonable approximation of Friendliness, but as it approaches superintelligence its values diverge from anything we'd consider Friendly, either because it wasn't previously smart enough to figure out how to self-modify while keeping its values stable, or because it was never perfectly Friendly and the new circumstances its power puts it in now make the imperfections much more glaring. In general, late defeaters are much harder for humans to understand than early defeaters, because an AI undergoing FOOM is too fast and complex to be readily understood. Your three main arguments, if I'm understanding them, have been: * (a) Early intelligence defeaters are so numerous that there's no point thinking much about other kinds of defeaters yet. * (b) Friendliness defeaters imply a level of incompetence on the programmers' part that strongly suggest intelligence defeaters will arise in the same situation. * (c) If an initially somewhat-smart AI is smart enough to foresee and
2XiXiDu11y
Here is part of my stance towards AI risks: 1. I assign a negligible probability to the possibility of a sudden transition from well-behaved narrow AIs to general AIs (see below). 2. An AI will not be pulled at random from mind design space. An AI will be the result of a research and development process. A new generation of AIs will need to be better than other products at “Understand What Humans Mean” and “Do What Humans Mean”, in order to survive the research phase and subsequent market pressure. 3. Commercial, research or military products are created with efficiency in mind. An AI that was prone to take unbounded actions given any terminal goal would either be fixed or abandoned during the early stages of research. If early stages showed that inputs such as the natural language query would yield results such as then the AI would never reach a stage in which it was sufficiently clever and trained to understand what results would satisfy its creators in order to deceive them. 4. I assign a negligible probability to the possibility of a consequentialist AI / expected utility maximizer / approximation to AIXI. Given that the kind of AIs from point 4 are possible: 5. Omohundro's AI drives are what make the kind of AIs mentioned in point 1 dangerous. Making an AI that does not exhibit these drives in an unbounded manner is probably a prerequisite to get an AI to work at all (there are not enough resources to think about being obstructed by simulator gods etc.), or should otherwise be easy compared to the general difficulties involved in making an AI work using limited resources. 6. An AI from point 4 will only ever do what it has been explicitly programmed to do. Such an AI is not going to protect its utility-function, acquire resources or preemptively eliminate obstacles in an unbounded fashion. Because it is not intrinsically rational to do so. What specifically constitutes rational, economic behavior is inseparable with an agent’s terminal goal. That any ter
5Rob Bensinger11y
I don't think anyone's ever disputed this. (However, that's not very useful if the deterministic process resulting in the SI is too complex for humans to distinguish it in advance from the outcome of a random walk.) Agreed. But by default, a machine that is better than other rival machines at satisfying our short-term desires will not satisfy our long-term desires. The concern isn't that we'll suddenly start building AIs with the express purpose of hitting humans in the face with mallets. The concern is that we'll code for short-term rather than long-term goals, due to a mixture of disinterest in Friendliness and incompetence at Friendliness. But if intelligence explosion occurs, 'the long run' will arrive very suddenly, and very soon. So we need to adjust our research priorities to more seriously assess and modulate the long-term consequences of our technology. That may be a reason to think that recursively self-improving AGI won't occur. But it's not a reason to expect such AGI, if it occurs, to be Friendly. The seed is not the superintelligence. We shouldn't expect the seed to automatically know whether the superintelligence will be Friendly, any more than we should expect humans to automatically know whether the superintelligence will be Friendly. I'm not following. Why does an AGI have to have a halting condition (specifically, one that actually occurs at some point) in order to be able to productively rewrite its own source code? You don't seem to be internalizing my arguments. This is just the restatement of a claim I pointed out was not just wrong but dishonestly stated here. Sure, but the list of instrumental goals overlap more than the list of terminal goals, because energy from one project can be converted to energy for a different project. This is an empirical discovery about our world; we could have found ourselves in the sort of universe where instrumental goals don't converge that much, e.g., because once energy's been locked down into organisms
2Eliezer Yudkowsky11y
Actually I do define intelligence as ability to hit a narrow outcome target relative to your own goals, but if your goals are very relaxed then the volume of outcome space with equal or greater utility will be very large. However one would expect that many of the processes involved in hitting a narrow target in outcome space (such that few other outcomes are rated equal or greater in the agent's preference ordering), such as building a good epistemic model or running on a fast computer, would generalize across many utility functions; this is why we can speak of properties apt to intelligence apart from particular utility functions.
0Rob Bensinger11y
Hmm. But this just sounds like optimization power to me. You've defined intelligence in the past as "efficient cross-domain optimization". The "cross-domain" part I've taken to mean that you're able to hit narrow targets in general, not just ones you happen to like. So you can become more intelligent by being better at hitting targets you hate, or by being better at hitting targets you like. The former are harder to test, but something you'd hate doing now could become instrumentally useful to know how to do later. And your intelligence level doesn't change when the circumstance shifts which part of your skillset is instrumentally useful. For that matter, I'm missing why it's useful to think that your intelligence level could drastically shift if your abilities remained constant but your terminal values were shifted. (E.g., if you became pickier.)
2Eliezer Yudkowsky11y
No, "cross-domain" means that I can optimize across instrumental domains. Like, I can figure out how to go through water, air, or space if that's the fastest way to my destination, I am not limited to land like a ground sloth. Measured intelligence shouldn't shift if you become pickier - if you could previously hit a point such that only 1/1000th of the space was more preferred than it, we'd still expect you to hit around that narrow a volume of the space given your intelligence even if you claimed afterward that a point like that only corresponded to 0.25 utility on your 0-1 scale instead of 0.75 utility due to being pickier ([expected] utilities sloping more sharply downward with increasing distance from the optimum).
0XiXiDu11y
You might be not aware of this but I wrote a sequence of short blog posts where I tried to think of concrete scenarios that could lead to human extinction. Each of which raised many questions. The introductory post is 'AI vs. humanity and the lack of concrete scenarios'. 1. Questions regarding the nanotechnology-AI-risk conjunction 2. AI risk scenario: Deceptive long-term replacement of the human workforce 3. AI risk scenario: Social engineering 4. AI risk scenario: Elite Cabal 5. AI risk scenario: Insect-sized drones 6. AI risks scenario: Biological warfare What might seem to appear completely obvious to you for reasons that I do not understand, e.g. that an AI can take over the world, appears to me largely like magic (I am not trying to be rude, by magic I only mean that I don't understand the details). At the very least there are a lot of open questions. Even given that for the sake of the above posts I accepted that the AI is superhuman and can do such things as deceive humans by its superior knowledge of human psychology. Which seems to be non-trivial assumption, to say the least. Over and over I told you that given all your assumptions, I agree that AGI is an existential risk. You did not reply to my argument. My argument was that if the seed is unfriendly then it will not be smart enough to hide its unfriendliness. My argument did not pertain the possibility of a friendly seed turning unfriendly. What I have been arguing is that an AI should not be expected, by default, to want to eliminate all possible obstructions. There are many graduations here. That, by some economic or otherwise theoretic argument, it might be instrumentally rational for some ideal AI to take over the world, does not mean that humans would create such an AI, or that an AI could not be limited to care about fires in its server farm rather than that Russia might nuke the U.S. and thereby destroy its servers. Did you mean to reply to another point? I don't see how the reply you
2lavalamp11y
Pretending to be friendly when you're actually not is something that doesn't even require human level intelligence. You could even do it accidentally. In general, the appearance of Friendliness at low levels of ability to influence the world doesn't guarantee actual Friendliness at high levels of ability to influence the world. (If it did, elected politicians would be much higher quality.)
-6Peterdjones11y
0hairyfigment11y
Say we find an algorithm for producing progressively more accurate beliefs about itself and the world. This algorithm may be long and complicated - perhaps augmented by rules-of-thumb whenever the evidence available to it says these rules make better predictions. (E.g, "nine times out of ten the Enterprise is not destroyed.") Combine this with an arbitrary goal and we have the making of a seed AI. Seems like this could straightforwardly improve its ability to predict humans without changing its goal, which may be 'maximize pleasure' or 'maximize X'. Why would it need to change its goal? If you deny the possibility of the above algorithm, then before giving any habitual response please remember what humanity knows about clinical vs. actuarial judgment. What lesson do you take from this?
1Broolucks11y
The problem, I reckon, is that X will never be anything like this. It will likely be something much more mundane, i.e. modelling the world properly and predicting outcomes given various counterfactuals. You might be worried by it trying to expand its hardware resources in an unbounded fashion, but any AI doing this would try to shut itself down if its utility function was penalized by the amount of resources that it had, so you can check by capping utility in inverse proportion to available hardware -- at worst, it will eventually figure out how to shut itself down, and you will dodge a bullet. I also reckon that the AI's capacity for deception would be severely crippled if its utility function penalized it when it didn't predict its own actions or the consequences of its actions correctly. And if you're going to let the AI actually do things... why not do exactly that? Arguably, such an AI would rather uneventfully arrive to a point where, when asking it "make us happy", it would just answer with a point by point plan that represents what it thinks we mean, and fill in details until we feel sure our intents are properly met. Then we just tell it to do it. I mean, seriously, if we were making an AGI, I would think "tell us what will happen next" would be fairly high in our list of priorities, only surpassed by "do not do anything we veto". Why would you program AI to "maximize happiness" rather than "produce documents detailing every step of maximizing happiness"? They are basically the same thing, except that the latter gives you the opportunity for a sanity check.
3Rob Bensinger11y
What counts as 'resources'? Do we think that 'hardware' and 'software' are natural kinds, such that the AI will always understand what we mean by the two? What if software innovations on their own suffice to threaten the world, without hardware takeover? Hm? That seems to only penalize it for self-deception, not for deceiving others. You're talking about an Oracle AI. This is one useful avenue to explore, but it's almost certainly not as easy as you suggest: "'Tool AI' may sound simple in English, a short sentence in the language of empathically-modeled agents — it's just 'a thingy that shows you plans instead of a thingy that goes and does things.' If you want to know whether this hypothetical entity does X, you just check whether the outcome of X sounds like 'showing someone a plan' or 'going and doing things', and you've got your answer. It starts sounding much scarier once you try to say something more formal and internally-causal like 'Model the user and the universe, predict the degree of correspondence between the user's model and the universe, and select from among possible explanation-actions on this basis.' [...] "If we take the concept of the Google Maps AGI at face value, then it actually has four key magical components. (In this case, 'magical' isn't to be taken as prejudicial, it's a term of art that means we haven't said how the component works yet.) There's a magical comprehension of the user's utility function, a magical world-model that GMAGI uses to comprehend the consequences of actions, a magical planning element that selects a non-optimal path using some method other than exploring all possible actions, and a magical explain-to-the-user function. "report($leading_action) isn't exactly a trivial step either. Deep Blue tells you to move your pawn or you'll lose the game. You ask 'Why?' and the answer is a gigantic search tree of billions of possible move-sequences, leafing at positions which are heuristically rated using a static-position ev
4Broolucks11y
What is "taking over the world", if not taking control of resources (hardware)? Where is the motivation in doing it? Also consider, as others pointed out, that an AI which "misunderstands" your original instructions will demonstrate this earlier than later. For instance, if you create a resource "honeypot" outside the AI which is trivial to take, an AI would naturally take that first, and then you know there's a problem. It is not going to figure out you don't want it to take it before it takes it. When I say "predict", I mean publishing what will happen next, and then taking a utility hit if the published account deviates from what happens, as evaluated by a third party. The first part of what you copy pasted seems to say that "it's nontrivial to implement". No shit, but I didn't say the contrary. Then there is a bunch of "what if" scenarios I think are not particularly likely and kind of contrived: Because asking for understandable plans means you can't ask for plans you don't understand? And you're saying that refusing to give a plan counts as success and not failure? Sounds like a strange set up that would be corrected almost immediately. If the AI has the right idea about "human understanding", I would think it would have the right idea about what we mean by "good". Also, why would you implement such a function before asking the AI to evaluate examples of "good" and provide their own? Is making humans happy so hard that it's actually easier to deceive them into taking happy pills than to do what they mean? Is fooling humans into accepting different definitions easier than understanding what they really mean? In what circumstances would the former ever happen before the latter? And if you ask it to tell you whether "taking happy pills" is an outcome most humans would approve of, what is it going to answer? If it's going to do this for happiness, won't it do it for everything? Again: do you think weaving an elaborate fib to fool every human being into becom
-3Peterdjones11y
* Maybe we didn't do it ithat way. Maybe we did it Loosemore's way, where you code in the high-level sentence, and let the AI figure it out. Maybe that would avoid the problem. Maybe Loosemore has solved FAi much more straightforwardly than EY. * Maybe we told it to. Maybe we gave it the low-level expansion of "happy" that we or our seed AI came up with together with an instruction that it is meant to capture the meaning of the high-level statement, and that the HL statement is the Prime Directive, and that if t