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AI Timelines

Edited by Ben Pace last updated 29th Jul 2020

AI Timelines is the discussion of how long until various major milestones in AI progress are achieved, whether it's the timeline until a human-level AI is developed, the timeline until certain benchmarks are defeated, the timeline until we can simulate a mouse-level intelligence, or something else.

This is to be distinguished from the closely related question of AI takeoff speeds, which is about the dynamics of AI progress after human-level AI is developed (e.g. will it be a single project or the whole economy that sees growth, how fast will that growth be, etc).

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Posts tagged AI Timelines
667AI 2027: What Superintelligence Looks Like
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Daniel Kokotajlo, Thomas Larsen, elifland, Scott Alexander, Jonas V, romeo
7mo
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222
589What 2026 looks like
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Daniel Kokotajlo
4y
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166
432How AI Takeover Might Happen in 2 Years
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joshc
8mo
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140
410It Looks Like You're Trying To Take Over The World
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gwern
4y
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120
377A Bear Case: My Predictions Regarding AI Progress
Thane Ruthenis
8mo
163
366A deep critique of AI 2027’s bad timeline models
titotal
4mo
39
359What’s the short timeline plan?
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Marius Hobbhahn
10mo
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49
356Recent AI model progress feels mostly like bullshit
lc
7mo
85
339Why I think strong general AI is coming soon
porby
3y
141
301AI Timelines
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habryka, Daniel Kokotajlo, Ajeya Cotra, Ege Erdil
2y
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136
296Scale Was All We Needed, At First
Gabe M
2y
35
294Orienting to 3 year AGI timelines
Nikola Jurkovic
10mo
56
293Two-year update on my personal AI timelines
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Ajeya Cotra
3y
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60
281Foom & Doom 1: “Brain in a box in a basement”
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Steven Byrnes
4mo
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120
268Are we in an AI overhang?
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Andy Jones
5y
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106
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