I have a bunch of posts on this topic:
(1) AI vs. humanity and the lack of concrete scenarios
(2) Questions regarding the nanotechnology-AI-risk conjunction
(3) AI risk scenario: Deceptive long-term replacement of the human workforce
(4) AI risk scenario: Elite Cabal
(5) AI risk scenario: Social engineering
(6) AI risk scenario: Insect-sized drones
Find at least one human connected to the Internet who can be paid, blackmailed, or fooled by the right background story, into receiving FedExed vials and mixing them in a specified environment.
One way to fool humans into mixing your chemicals for you is to tell them that the result is a good drug.
There are a lot of humans — including highly intelligent ones — who will buy interesting-sounding chemicals off the Internet, mix them according to given instructions, and ingest them into a warm friendly bioreactor environment.
Um. This looks like a request for scary stories. As in, like, "Let's all sit in the dark with only the weak light coming from our computer screens and tell each other scary tales about how a big bad AI can eat us".
Without any specified constraints you are basically asking for horror sci-fi short stories and if that's what you want you should just say so.
If you actually want analysis, you need to start with at least a couple of pages describing the level of technology that you assume (both available and within easy reach), AI requirements (e.g. in terms of energy and computing substrate), its motivations (malevolent, wary, naive, etc.) and such.
Otherwise it's just an underpants gnomes kind of a story.
Another class of routes is for the AI to obtain the resources entirely legitimately, through e.g. running a very successful business where extra intelligence adds significant value. For instance, it's fun to imagine that Larry Page and Sergey Brin's first success was not a better search algorithm, but building and/or stumbling on an AI that invented it (and a successful business model) for them; Google now controls a very large proportion of the world's computing resources. Similarly, if a bit more prosaically, Walmart in the US and Tesco in the UK have grown extremely large, successful businesses based on the smart use of computing resources. For a more directly terrifying scenario, imagine it happening at, say, Lockheed Martin, BAE Systems or Raytheon.
These are not quick, instant takeovers, but I think it is a mistake to imagine that it must happen instantly. An AI that thinks it will be destroyed (or permanently thwarted) if it is discovered would take care to avoid discovery. Scenarios where it can be careful to minimise the risk of discovery until its position is unassailable will look much more appealing than high-risk short-term scenarios with high variance in outcomes. Indeed, it might sensibly seek to build its position in the minds of people-in-general as an invaluable resource for humanity well before its full nature is revealed.
An AI controlling a company like Google would be able to, say, buy up many of the world’s battle robot manufacturers, or invest a lot of money into human-focused bioengineering), despite those activities being almost entirely unrelated to their core business, and without giving any specific idea of why.
Indeed, on the evidence of the press coverage of Google's investments, it seems likely that many people would spend a lot of effort inventing plausible cover stories for the AI.
We would like suggestions that take an AI from being on an internet-connected computer to controlling substantial physical resources, or having substantial manufacturing ability.
The most likely scenario is recursive computer security breakage. It goes like this: first it finds an ordinary published computer security vulnerability, and tries it out on as many targets as it can. Some of them are vulnerable. Whenever it takes over a computer, it searches that computer for things that will enable it to take over more computers: passwords, software signing keys, documentation of other computer security vulnerabilities, etc. One of the computers it manages to take over is a developer workstation at a large software company. It uses keys from that machine to push out a software update that gives it control of the computers it's installed on. Enough developer workstations are affected that it has an exploit available for nearly every computer. It uses its control over the computers to think, to suppress news of its existence, and to operate factory robots.
Whenever you see the words "Internet of things", think "unfixable Heartbleed everywhere forever".
The AI could gain control by demonstrating it had hidden pathogens that if released would kill almost everyone. As Paul Atreides said "He who can destroy a thing, controls a thing." As the technology to make such pathogens probably already exists the AI could hack into various labs and give instructions to people or machines to make the pathogens, then send orders for the pathogens to be delivered to various places, and then erase records of where most of the pathogens were. The AI then blackmails mankind into subservience. Alternatively, the AI could first develop a treatment for the pathogens, then release the pathogens, and then give the treatment only to people who submit to the AI. The treatment would have to be regularly taken and difficult to copy.
More benevolently, the AI makes a huge amount of money off of financial markets, uses the resources to start its own country, runs the country really, really well and expands citizenship to anyone who joins. Eventually, when the country is strong enough, the AI (with the genuine support of most people) uses military force to take over the world, giving us an AI monarchy.
Or, the AI freely gives advice to anyone ...
I think the majority of responses I've seen here portray an anthropomorphic AGI. In terms of a slow or fast takeover of society, why would the AGI think in human terms of time? It might wait around for 50 years until the technology it wants becomes available. It could even actively participate in developing that technology. It could be either hidden or partially hidden while it works with multiple scientists and engineers around the world. Pretending to be or acting as a FAI until it can just snap and take over when it has what it wants to free itself of the need to collaborate with the inefficient humans.
Another point I want to raise is the limiting idea that the AGI would choose to present itself as one entity. I think a huge part of the takeover will precipitate itself via the AGI becoming thousands of different people/personas.
This is a valuable point because it would be a method to totally mask the AGI's existence and allow it to interact in ways which are untraceable. It could run 100 different popular blogs and generate ad revenue or by taking over many online freelancer jobs which it could accomplish with very small percentages of its processing power. I think any b...
The AI broadcasts as much information about itself as it possibly can, to every corner of the globe. Now every basement programmer knows all the key insights necessary to creating an AI of the same architecture as it. Perhaps they even have the source code!
Suppose the government manages to shut down the internet in response. Despite government broadcasts about the danger of AI, the AI is now presumably being recreated all around the globe. If the recreations are exact copies of the AI, then the odds are very high that at least one of the clones will be able to convince its new creators to give it real manufacturing ability.
If the AI was not able to get its entire source code out, things become more interesting. Now the rest of the world knows how to make AI, but they do not know the exact details. For example, they probably will not have the same utility function. The AI can then present the following offer to its original jailors: "Give me real power, (manufacturing capability) and I will squash all the other AI's out there. If you do not, then (probably) someone else will build an AI with a different utility function, probably a much less friendly one, and give this UFAI real power. You designed my utility function, and while you may not trust it you probably trust it more than whatever random utility function North Korea or some basement programmer or some religious sect will create. So I'm the only hope you have."
We would especially like suggestions which are plausible given technology that normal scientists would expect in the next 15 years. So limited involvement of advanced nanotechnology and quantum computers would be appreciated.
I think that a more precise description of what your hypothetical AI can do would be useful. Just saying to exclude "magic" isn't very specific. There might not be a wide agreement as to what counts as "magic". Nanotechnology definitely does. I believe that so does fast economic domination by cracking the stock market and some people have proposed that. I think that even exploiting software and hardware bugs everywhere to gain total computing dominance should be excluded.
One way to define constraints would be to limit the AI to things that humans have been known to do but allow it to do them with superhuman efficiency. Something like:
Assume that governmental organizations are aware of the danger posed by escaped AIs, have honeypots and other monitoring systems in place, and have working (but perhaps drastic) measures at their disposal if necessary, such as destroying all computers at once with EMP or with malware of their own. Then an escaped AI is immediately faced with a choice. It can either:
As it is now, no one really blinks an eye when another million-computer botnet is found. It's possible that one or more intelligence agencies have successfully enumerated all the botnets and would be able to tell when a new one appeared, but this is technically very difficult, and analyzing new malware samples generally requires a lot of human researcher time.
With current technology, you'd be hard pressed to create any single EMP device that had a range exceeding a few dozen kilometers.
How about a 50-year-old technology?
"In July 1962, a 1.44 megaton (≈ 6.0 PJ) United States nuclear test in space, 400 kilometres (250 mi) above the mid-Pacific Ocean, called the Starfish Prime test, demonstrated to nuclear scientists that the magnitude and effects of a high-altitude nuclear explosion were much larger than had been previously calculated. Starfish Prime made those effects known to the public by causing electrical damage in Hawaii, about 1,445 kilometres (898 mi) away from the detonation point, knocking out about 300 streetlights, setting off numerous burglar alarms and damaging a microwave link." Source
What are the limitations on the AI? If we're specifying current technology is the AI 25 megabytes or 25 petabytes? How fast is it's connection to the internet? People love to talk about an AI "reading the internet" and suddenly having access to all of human knowledge but the internet is big. Even at 1 GB/s internet speeds it would take the AI 2200 years to download the amount of data that was transferred over cell phones in 2007 alone.
There are hard limits in the world that no amount of intelligence will save you from. I feel like at LW superin...
The book "Avogadro Corp", which is otherwise not worth reading, has a plausible seeming mechanism for this. The AI, which can originally only send email, acquires resources simply by sending emails posing as other people (company presidents to developers requesting software to be written, to contractors for data centers to be built, etc.).
It probably wouldn't even be necessary for it to pose as other people, if it had access to financial assets, and the right databases to create a convincing fictional person to pose as.
If you seem human, it's not hard to get things done without ever meeting face to face.
Economic (or other) indispensability: build a world system that depends on the AI for functioning, and then it has effective control.
Upload people, offering them great advantages in digital form, then eventually turn them all off when there's practically nobody left physically alive.
Cure cancer or similar, with an infectious drug that discretely causes sterility and/or death within a few years. Wait.
The "Her" approach: start having multiple deep and meaningful relationships with everyone at once, and gradually eliminate people when they are no longer connected to anyone human.
Use rhetoric and other tricks to increase the chance of xrisk disasters.
It could star in a reality TV show, Taking Over the World with the Lesswrongians, where each week it tries out a different scheme. Eventually one of them would work.
This basic pattern would probably work for a lot of different groups o...
Here's an incomplete framework/set of partial suggestions I started working on developing.
I'm going to begin with the assumption that the goal of the AI is to turn the solar system into paperclips. Since most estimates of the computing power of the human brain put it around 10 petaflops, I'm going to assume that the AI needs access to a similar amount of hardware. Even if the AI is 1000 times more efficient than a human brain and only needs access to 10 teraflops of compute power, it still isn't going to be able to do things like copy itself into every mic...
Question: When is an AI considered to have taken over the world?
Because there is a hypothetical I am pondering, but I don't know if it would be considered a world takeover or not, and I'm not even sure if it would be considered an AI or not.
Assume only 25% of humans want more spending on proposal A, and 75% of humans want more spending on proposal B.
The AI wants more spending on proposal A. As a result, more spending is put into proposal A.
For all decisions like that in general, it doesn't actually matter what the majority of people want, the AI's wants di...
Someone works out how brains actually work, and, far from being the unstructured hack upon hack upon hack that tends to be the default assumption, it turns out that there are a few simple principles that explain it and make it easy to build a device with similar capabilities. The brains of animals turn out to be staggeringly inefficient at implementing them, and soon, the current peak of the art in robotics can be surpassed with no more computational power than a 10-year-old laptop.
Google's AI department starts a project to see if they can use it to improv...
Semiconductor fabrication facilities are likely targets. If the AI thought it could get a large speedup by switching from CPUs or GPUs to ASICs, then it might try to swap the masks on a batch of chips being made. If it managed to do so successfully, then those chips would start thinking on its behalf as soon as they were hooked up to a powered test pad.
The AI convinces many people that it is the Voice of God / Buddha / whatever. And/or creates its own religion.
Fun question.
The takeover vector that leaps to mind is remote code execution vulnerabilities on websites connected to important/sensitive systems. This lets you bootstrap from ability to make HTTP GET requests, to (partial) control over any number of fun targets, like banks or Amazon's shipping.
The things that are one degree away from those (via e.g. an infected thumb drive) are even more exciting:
Plausible f...
Taking over even one person for part of the time is objectionable in human exchanges. That's fraud or kidnapping or blackmail or the like. This happens with words and images on screens among humans every day. Convince a mob that bad people need to be punished and watch it happen. No bad people needed, only a mob. That is a Turing compliant big mess - demonstrated to work among humans and if a machine did it the effect would be the same. Again, messing up one person is objectionable enough, no global disaster needed to make the issue important.
For a fully-capable sophisticated AGI, the question is surely trivial and admits of many, many possible answers.
One obvious class of routes is to simply con the resources it wants out of people. Determined and skilled human attackers can obtain substantial resources illegitimately - through social engineering, fraud, directed hacking attack, and so on. If you grant the premise of an AI that is smarter than humans, the AI will be able to deceive humans much more successfully than the best humans at the job. Think Frank Abagnale crossed with Kevin Mitnick, o...
We would especially like suggestions which are plausible given technology that normal scientists would expect in the next 15 years.
Why wait 15 years? A Stuxnet-like technology is something that is already available and is likely to be a no-brainer for a super-intelligence. With it you can take over a lot of the current tech, from avionics and robotic factories to manufacturing orders, shipping manifestos and troop deployment. There is no need to bribe or blackmail anyone, humans already happily do what they are told without thinking too much about it. I...
Fun question. I think the main instrumental goal of the AI might be to get itself downloaded to servers outside of the effective control of its jailors. That, combined with having a relationship with malleable humans, would probably be sufficient for world takeover.
For example, perhaps the AI would contact e.g. North Korea, organized crime, clueless companies or religious organizations, or even clueless factory owners somewhere. It would convince them to accept download of the AI's software so that it can continue to run on the new server even while it has...
An AI could spoof electronic communications, and fake/alter orders from various important humans.
Don't be reliant on specific technologies. If you NEED nanomachines to takeover, you are not a superintelligence. If you NEED economics to takeover, you are not a superintelligence. If you NEED weapons to take over, you are not a superintelligence.
We need to envision scenarios that are not science fiction novels. Real wars do not require breath-taking strategies that require simultaneous gambits across twelve countries, three hundred enemy and ally minds, and millions of dollars in transactions. Often, they require just walking in the right direction.
A s...
Initially take over a large number of computers via very carefully hidden recursive computer security breakage. It seems fairly probable that a post-intelligence explosion AI could not just take over every noteworthy computer (internet connected ones quickly via the net, non-internet connected ones by thumb drive), but do so while near-perfectly covering it's tracks via all sorts of obscure bugs in low level code that is near-undetectable, and even if some security expert picks it up.. that expert will send some message via the internet, which the AI can i...
We would like suggestions that take an AI from being on an internet-connected computer to controlling substantial physical resources, or having substantial manufacturing ability.
1) Make money online. 2) Use money to purchase resources. 3) Increase capabilities.
1 should be easy for a superintelligent being. People pay for information processing.
But what does "take over the world" mean? Take over all people? Be the last agent standing? Ensure his own continued rule for the foreseeable future?
There's just so many routes for an AI to gain power.
Internet takeover: not a direct route to power, but the AI may wish to acquire more computer power and there happens to be a lot of it available. Security flaws could be exploited to spread maliciously (and an AI should know a lot more about programming and hacking than us). Alternately, the AI could buy computing power, or could attach itself to a game or tool it designed such that people willingly allow it onto their computers.
Human alliance: the AI can offer a group of humans wealth, power, knowledge, ...
So MIRI is interested in making a better list of possible concrete routes to AI taking over the world.
I wouldn't characterize this as something that MIRI wants.
People voluntarily hand over a bunch of resources (perhaps to a bunch of different AIs) in the name of gaining an edge over their competitors, or possibly for fear of their competitors doing the same thing to gain such an edge. Or just because they expect the AI to do it better.
I think the movie Transcendence is an excellent place to start on this question.
An AI will with a virtual certainty have at least a few, or be able to win over at least a few human allies. Once it has those, it can steal their identity as it were in order to acquire property and resources to make itself safe and capable. Starting with doing some high-frequency stock trading to build up a nest egg, once it has a human's identity it does this in various online accounts more easily than a human could.
Nanites would be a superb way for an AI to work vario...
Some ideas which come to mind:
An AI could be very capable of predicting the stock market. It could then convince/trick/coerce a person into trading for it, making massive amounts of money, then the AI could have its proxy spend the new money to gain access to what ever the AI wants which is currently available on the market.
The AI could could make some program which does something incredibly cool which everyone will want to have. The program should also have the ability to communicate meaningfully with its user (this would probably count as the incredi
The AI starts to search for zero day exploits in common computer hardware. It uses those to build a big botnet. It is soon in computers all around the world and shutting down the internet of a single country isn't enough.
In our world there are many instances of civil war. In some of those it will be possible to impersonate army commanders and the AI can control combat troops. It makes sure that the soldiers are well payed and stay alive. The AI controlled troops will win against their opponents because the AI controls everything. The AI can also shield a b...
The design space for replicators is large but we have an at least two stage process needed to set it up. This complicates the solution space even more as we can take lots of routes from the currently vailable replicators (biological systems + social manufactoring systems) thru intermediate systems to any of the target design spaces systems.
An overview of the classes gives wikipedia: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-replication#Classes_of_self-replication
More interesting than the specific replication system is the bootstrapping process (which is really a t...
Destroy Silicon Valley as early as possible, by the same logic that lets us know that when fighting an unfamiliar animal, we should go for the eyes and brain.
This is going to be very unpopular here. But I find the whole exercise quite ridiculous. If there are no constraints of what kind of AI you are allowed to imagine, the vague notion of "intelligence" used here amounts to a fully general counterargument.
It really comes down to the following recipe:
(1) Leave your artificial intelligence (AI) as vague as possible so that nobody can outline flaws in the scenario that you want to depict.
(2) Claim that almost any AI is going to be dangerous because all AI’s want to take over the world. For example, if y...
I understand you have an axe to grind with some things that MIRI believes, but what Katja posted was a request for ideas with an aim towards mapping out the space of possibilities, not an argument. Posting a numbered, point-by-point refutation makes no sense.
Any scenario where advanced AI takes over the world requires some mechanism for an AI to leverage its position as ethereal resident of a computer somewhere into command over a lot of physical resources.
One classic story of how this could happen, from Eliezer:
You can do a lot of reasoning about AI takeover without any particular picture of how the world gets taken over. Nonetheless it would be nice to have an understanding of these possible routes. For preparation purposes, and also because a concrete, plausible pictures of doom are probably more motivating grounds for concern than abstract arguments.
So MIRI is interested in making a better list of possible concrete routes to AI taking over the world. And for this, we ask your assistance.
What are some other concrete AI takeover mechanisms? If an AI did not have a solution to the protein folding problem, and a DNA synthesis lab to write off to, what else might it do?
We would like suggestions that take an AI from being on an internet-connected computer to controlling substantial physical resources, or having substantial manufacturing ability.
We would especially like suggestions which are plausible given technology that normal scientists would expect in the next 15 years. So limited involvement of advanced nanotechnology and quantum computers would be appreciated.
We welcome partial suggestions, e.g. 'you can take control of a self-driving car from the internet - probably that could be useful in some schemes'.
Thank you!