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Forecasts (Specific Predictions)

Edited by Ruby, Raemon last updated 26th Aug 2020

Forecasts (Specific Predictions). This tag is for specific predictions about unknown facts or future events. Discussion of the practice of making forecasts can be found in Forecasting and Prediction. Related: Betting.

Above all, don’t ask what to believe—ask what to anticipate. Every question of belief should flow from a question of anticipation, and that question of anticipation should be the center of the inquiry.  – Making Beliefs Pay Rent

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Posts tagged Forecasts (Specific Predictions)
13
669AI 2027: What Superintelligence Looks Like
Ω
Daniel Kokotajlo, Thomas Larsen, elifland, Scott Alexander, Jonas V, romeo
7mo
Ω
222
8
80You will crash your car in front of my house within the next week
Richard Korzekwa
8mo
6
7
43Forecasting Thread: Existential Risk
Q
Amandango
5y
Q
39
5
596What 2026 looks like
Ω
Daniel Kokotajlo
4y
Ω
166
4
185What will GPT-2030 look like?
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jsteinhardt
2y
Ω
43
4
147Assessing Kurzweil predictions about 2019: the results
Stuart_Armstrong
5y
24
4
142Clarifying and predicting AGI
Ω
Richard_Ngo
3y
Ω
45
4
59Calibration of a thousand predictions
KatjaGrace
3y
7
4
31[Prediction] We are in an Algorithmic Overhang
lsusr
4y
14
3
164Why I think there's a one-in-six chance of an imminent global nuclear war
Max Tegmark
3y
169
3
135Forecasting Thread: AI Timelines
QΩ
Amandango, Daniel Kokotajlo, Ben Pace, datscilly
5y
QΩ
98
3
132AI Forecasting: One Year In
jsteinhardt
3y
12
3
60My AI Predictions 2023 - 2026
HunterJay
2y
33
3
59Before smart AI, there will be many mediocre or specialized AIs
Ω
Lukas Finnveden
2y
Ω
14
3
472010s Predictions Review
Tofly
6y
10
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