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Open Thread for January 8 - 16 2014
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Once again I am deeply impressed how Yvain can explain things that I have vaguely felt for a long time but couldn't quite put into words.

Specifically the concept of the "safe spaces" and whether only some groups deserve them and other groups don't. And more generally, whether only members of some groups have feelings and can be hurt (or perhaps whether only feelings and pain of some groups matter) or whether we all are to some degree fragile and valueable.

And how the "safe space" of one group sometimes cannot be a "safe space" of another group, and it's okay to simply have both of them. And as a consequence how by insisting that every place must be a "safe space" of group X we de facto say that the group Y should have no "safe space", ever.

A few months ago, I re-read HPMOR in its entirety, and had an insight about the Hermione / feminism issue that I'd previously missed when I wrote this comment. I never got around to saying it anywhere, so I'm saying it here:

I'd previously written:

HPMOR kinda feels off because canonically, Hermione is unambiguously the most competent person in Harry's year, and has a good chance of growing up to be the most competent person in the 'verse. Harry is kept at the center of the story by his magical connection to Voldemort. In HPMOR, in contrast, Harry is kept at the center of the story by competence and drive. It's going to be very hard to do that without it feeling like Hermione is getting shafted.

But actually, HPMOR closely parallels cannon on this point: Methods!Hermione got just as much of an intelligence upgrade as Methods!Harry did, so she's still unambiguously more competent than him, at least before repeated use of his mysterious dark side gave him a mental age-up. This is more or less explicitly pointed out in chapter 21:

She'd done better than him in every single class they'd taken. (Except for broomstick riding which was like gym class, it didn't count.) She'd gotten real

... (read more)
0jefftk
Harry's upgrade was much larger. At the recent HPMOR meetup in Boston someone asked Eliezer about this, and his response was that Hermione was already smart enough that this would have made her "smarter than the author" and made writing her much too difficult. This was also discussed in an hpmor thread.

I'm planning to meet with my local Department of Services for the Blind tomorrow; the stated purpose of the meeting is to discuss upcoming life changes/needs/etc. This appears to be exactly what I need at the moment, but I'm concerned that I'm not going to be optimally prepared, so I'd like to post some details here to increase the chances of useful feedback.

(For transparency's sake: I'm legally blind, unemployed, living with my parents until they take the necessary steps to get me moved into the place I own, with student loan payments outpacing my SSI benefits by over $200/month, and stuck in the bible belt.)

  • The plan to move out will doubtless frame the conversation.
  • I'm unsure as to whether this conversation will be private (me talking to a DSB representative), or if one of my parents will sit in. Who is in earshot matters, since for all the problems I have with my parents, they are the entirety of my support system at the moment, and the less risk to that relationship the better.
  • Most important topic: Training. My skills across the board are pathetic, yet I've been unable to improve them independently in the time since I've realized this (most of the past year and a half, IIRC
... (read more)

I was absurdly lucky: the counselor I spoke to is new and motivated to put in the necessary effort for everything, and went to high school with my stepmother; it also turns out that the in-state training center has a thirty-day trial period, during which commitment is a non-issue. They also offered to provide any required technology, be it laptops or note takers or whatever. It could start as early as the first week of February, which is early enough that I wouldn't need to worry about security at my property. So on the whole, a surprisingly good day.

7TheOtherDave
That's awesome. Go you!
3WalterL
Glad to hear it!

If you have not dealt with something the DSB before, you're probably drastically overestimating how much mental effort they are willing to expend to help you. (I dealt with a similar agency, the California Department of Rehabilitation, many years ago.)

Although it is of course good for you to try to estimate how much mental effort they are willing to make in real time during the interview, I suggest the plan you go into the meeting with assume it is low. E.g. you might consider just asking for a notetaker over and over again.

Try to appear a little dumber than you actually are.

I would not risk alienating your parents to try for a deeper conversation with DSB staff.

0NancyLebovitz
My impression is that some people want children very much, but the majority have children as a result of liking sex plus being willing to raise children once the children exist plus social pressure. You do get the occasional sperm substitution scandal which seems like a very pure example of a desire to have children.
5Vulture
I think you replied to the wrong comment.
0NancyLebovitz
You're right.
5Ben_LandauTaylor
It looks like you've already got a list of things you want to answer in the meeting, so you've already done the most important preparation. This is probably under your control. I expect you have the right to a private meeting, if you ask the DSB rep. If you're worried about how your parents would react to such a request, maybe try framing it as practicing your independence, or something appropriately harmless and fuzzy-sounding?

After doing a large amount of research, I feel fairly confident saying that high-dose Potassium supplementation was the initial trigger that pushed me into two-year nightmare struggle with migraines which I am still dealing with. I didn't do anything beyond the recommendations that you can find on gwern's page and gwern doesn't really recomend anything that is technically unsafe, but the fact is that (apparently!) some people are migraine prone and these people should probably definitely not do what I did. (To be clear, I'm not blaming gwern in any way, that's merely a "community reference" that a lot of folks refer to.)

9RomeoStevens
Interesting, some questions. 1. What is high dose? 2. How was the dosing achieved? 3. What is your sodium and magnesium intake like?
8drethelin
Can you link to your more important sources from you research? They could be useful to others.
1Ander
I'm interested in this as well, can you send us a link of the research that you found linking potassium supplements to migraines? Thanks!

All the productivity posts on LW that I've read, I found mildly disturbing. They all give a sense of excessive regimentation, as well as giving up enjoyable activity - sacrificing a lot for a single goal (or a few goals). I'm sure it's good for getting work done, but there's more to life than work - there's actually enjoying life, having fun, etc.

I think you're talking about So8res's recent posts, but I think they're exceptional. Most productivity posts are about avoiding spending time web surfing, particularly during time that has been budgeted for work. They do this partly because fragmenting time is bad and partly because there are better ways to have fun.

5blacktrance
I find that doing fun things like web surfing makes unenjoyable work more bearable, even though it takes longer. And I do think that most productivity posts are about more than not spending time on the Internet - there's a lot about how to cut down on social time and "fun" so you can be as productive as possible.
6chairbender
If you learn mindfulness, you can learn to detach yourself from an impulsive desire to be entertained constantly, and find flow (and happiness, or at least contentment) in tasks you previously thought were unenjoyable.
3[anonymous]
Can you or anyone else sketch out some advice on how to achieve this wonderful sounding thing?
3Viliam_Bur
To avoid paradox, it is probably better to print those posts and read them from the paper. But yes, it is a good advice, which probably brings more productivity gains than any other advice.
3Douglas_Knight
While the direct advice may be valuable, I don't think it's so common; I'm talking about posts that take it as a given and talk about ways to beat addiction, such as leechblock, pomodoros, and conditioning. Other suggestions, like recording time spent, manually or by browser plugin are about convincing people that they are wasting their time, on the hypothesis that people won't believe the raw claim.
7sixes_and_sevens
Can you give any concrete examples?
7blacktrance
Habitual Productivity The mechanics of my recent productivity How I Am Productive (Miscellaneous extreme regimentation) There are other posts that give me this impression, but I can't find them right now. Also, the "optimal sleep" posts seem to be all about how to sleep as little as possible to be as productive as possible.
3drethelin
Yeah all the obsession with polyphasic sleep seems to be about sacrificing quality of life for quantity of "productive" time.
2ephion
I agree tentatively. I'm working on maximizing my productivity per hour so that I can spend less hours being productive. Productivity measures are really helpful in that regard, but the temptation to take it too far is problematic.
-3chairbender
Downvoted for proposing a poisonous idea. You're implying a dichotomy between being productive and experiencing positive emotions. You can find productive tasks enjoyable. Hanging out with people is an important part of staying healthy, for example, and is generally enjoyable. Having fun is certainly something that you can do, but that doesn't mean that it is obviously morally optimal.
5Viliam_Bur
Dichotomy is a strong word, but I expect that the correlation between productivity and positive emotions is generally negative. Of course the advice here is: go meta, and explore the strategies to make the correlation positive.

My experience is the opposite; productivity generally feels awesome, sitting around doing nothing or wandering around the internet is generally depressing. (This is insufficient as a motivator for behavior.)

4drethelin
for these discussions we need to start differentiating meanings of the word "productive". When I get stuff done for an interesting task, or put together a piece of furniture, that''s being productive and usually feels pretty good. When I fill out paperwork for a lease or something, that usually feels boring and not fun, with some good feeling when it's over with. I think both of these fall under the lay definition of "productive". Leisure/fun times trades off against both of these, but my mental image when someone says "it's better to be productive than to spend time doing nothing" usually has me picturing boring homework.
4Viliam_Bur
Exactly. A person's general productivity and procrastination will probably greatly depend on whether most of their "productivity" is going interesting tasks or filling out paperwork. So the right long-term strategy is probably to find a way to get paid for doing interesting tasks.
3Ben_LandauTaylor
I'm currently about a quarter of the way through this book, and already it has several actionable insights on how to do that.
1Viliam_Bur
Just reading the book description, this sounds right: Maybe the trick is with the "something valuable" part. Some people make money by doing things that are not valuable, or at least some Dilbert-esque process removes a lot of value from their contribution. So while you shouldn't keep searching until you find something you feel passionate about (because it is your work that creates the passion), you probably should keep searching until you find something valuable, where the value you add isn't destroyed by the process. And then keep doing it.
2Ben_LandauTaylor
Yeah. The author claims you need to find something where (1) you can improve your skills, (2) you believe your work has positive value, and (3) you don't actively dislike the people you're working with. From there, you can increase your skills and prove your value, then barter that value into a position that has the traits which correlate with fulfillment.
3Creutzer
How do you prevent this very strong set of conditions from making you throw up your hands and say "alright, I'm screwed"? I feel like it's what a lot of people would, given their situation, be perfectly justified in doing.
0Ben_LandauTaylor
Short answer: The bad news is, you might in fact be screwed, given the situation. The good news is, it's always possible to change the situation; all it takes is deliberate practice, planning, and a tremendous amount of hard work. Long answer: Those conditions are rare and valuable things. To get them, you have to offer something rare and valuable in return. Here's how to do that. First, make sure you're in a situation where you can improve your skills. If your job doesn't use any skills that can be improved, then either take up a hobby, find a new job, or use all your ingenuity to figure out something else. You might have to ignore the other two conditions for now. That sucks, but such is life. Second, practice. Constantly stretch yourself by working on projects that are just outside your comfort zone. Seek feedback from reality and from experts. Third, build career capital. This is a combination of demonstrably awesome output plus social proof. It's the thing that people see and realize "this person is good at that thing." Fourth, use your career capital to get a position that has (more of) the traits you want. From the outside, this will probably look like getting a lucky break. Your career capital makes opportunities available, and if you know what you're looking for, you can do a pretty good job of judging which opportunities are worth following. Finally, keep doing this. If your skills and career capital keep improving, you can keep improving your position to get more money, more autonomy, more impact on the world, or whatever it is you're optimizing for. This takes a long time. The examples in the book usually take years. The shortest example I've ever encountered took maybe ten months. With any proposed strategy to reach happiness and fulfillment, you have to ask why everyone else hasn't done it already, and in this case the answer is because it's actually pretty hard. I've done this, though, and I can confidently say it's worth it. Actually complete
2blacktrance
You certainly can find productive tasks enjoyable, but it's common to find productive tasks unenjoyable. People don't hang out with each other because it's productive (except when networking), they hang out because it's fun. The fact that it's good for your health is a bonus, but isn't and shouldn't be the primary motivation. Not obviously morally optimal, but it is actually morally optimal, for a broad enough sense of "having fun". But I say this as an ethical egoist.
0chairbender
Just because you are an ethical egoist does not mean that ethical egoism is the system by which all moral claims ought to be judged. Have you read the metaethics sequence?
-1blacktrance
It's true that all moral claims shouldn't be judged by ethical egoism because I believe it, moral claims should be judged by egoism because it's correct. And I have read the metaethics sequence, and found it interesting, though at times lacking. What part of it are you referring to?
-6chairbender
0drethelin
Downvoted for proposing a poisonous idea. There IS an obvious and common dichotomy between being productive and experiencing positive emotions and pretending that it isn't there is bullshit that will only cause people to burn out and be even less productive AND less happy. Yours is the kind of attitude that leads people to say "I can never be as good as this amazing guy so I won't even try". Satisficing morality and happiness separately will get us far more of both.
0chairbender
I agree that productive tasks tend to be less enjoyable, but (at least for me) I still experience SOME positive emotions when I'm being productive, though (and when I'm reflecting on being productive). I just meant that it's possible to be productive and not feel miserable. I started getting more productive when I was able to use mindfulness to detach myself from an impulsive desire to experience happiness. I don't think that's a particularly harmful idea to suggest. I just think it's bad to discourage people from trying to find happiness and contentment in contributing to society (being productive) by implying that it's simply not possible. Also, from a utilitarian standpoint, spending time being productive (making a positive impact on the world) seems better than spending time pursuing individual happiness (to an extent, since you obviously are going to have a hard time being productive if you are miserable). If you value your personal happiness above others (like blacktrance), though, it totally makes sense that you would spend less time trying to make a positive impact on the world. I didn't realize people thought that way when I responded. I felt sad when you called what I wrote "bullshit", though. I'm new to posting on LW and it makes me feel really depressed and rejected to have one of my first few discussions result in me being insulted like that.
-1drethelin
Calling something bullshit is less of a slur than calling someone's ideas poisonous. Plenty of things are bullshit. If you can't handle people disagreeing with the truth of your statements or your ethical injunctions maybe you shouldn't go around telling someone that expressing their concerns is a poisonous idea. Edit- I also don't appreciate your pathetic emotional manipulation, both here and in the related sub-thread.

If you're expecting the singularity within a century, does it make sense to put any thought into eugenics except for efforts to make it easy to avoid the worst genetic disorders?

8David_Gerard
This could be generalised to putting any thought into anything. Will the singularity be achieved within one childhood? More smart people may be useful to apply to the problem. If you're smart, make more smart people.
8Nornagest
That seems to depend on a number of assumptions -- your timeline, whether you expect a soft or a hard takeoff, the centrality of raw intelligence vs. cultural effects to research quality, possible nonlinearity of network effects on intellectual output. But I'd bet that the big one is time: if you think (unrealistically, but run with it) that you can improve a test population's intelligence by 50%, that could be very significant if you're expecting a 2100 singularity but likely won't be if you're expecting one before they graduate from college.
5[anonymous]
Depends on the confidence with which you expect it. If you're 95+% confident, probably not. Lower? Probably yes. Even an intervention with only 10% chance of ever mattering may be worth doing if its value if successful is at least 10x greater than its cost+opportunity cost.
2Manfred
Good point. The cutoff is not necessarily the singularity, either - once we have sufficiently awesome genetic engineering, there's no point to eugenics.

I don't see any discussion about this blog post by Mike Travern.

His point is that people trying to solve for Friendly AI are doing so because it's an "easy", abstract problem well into the future. He contends that we are already taking significant damage from artificially created human systems like the financial system, which can be ascribed agency and it's goals are quite different from improving human life. These systems are quite akin to "Hostile AI". This, he contends, is the really hard problem.

Here is a quote from the blogpost (which is from a Facebook comment he made):

I am generally on the side of the critics of Singulitarianism, but now want to provide a bit of support to these so-called rationalists. At some very meta level, they have the right problem — how do we preserve human interests in a world of vast forces and systems that aren’t really all that interested in us? But they have chosen a fantasy version of the problem, when human interests are being fucked over by actual existing systems right now. All that brain-power is being wasted on silly hypotheticals, because those are fun to think about, whereas trying to fix industrial capitalism so it doesn’t wreck the human life-support system is hard, frustrating, and almost certainly doomed to failure.

It's a short post, so you can read it quickly. What do you think about his argument?

[-]asr230

It's a short post, so you can read it quickly. What do you think about his argument?

I think it's silly. I suspect MIRI and every other singulatarian organization, and every other individual working on the challeges of unfriendly AI, could fit comfortably in a 100-person auditorium.

In contrast, "trying to fix industrial capitalism" is one of the main topics of political dispute everywhere in the world. "How to make markets work better" is one of the main areas of research in economics. The American Economic Association has 18,000 members. We have half a dozen large government agencies, with budgets of hundreds of millions of dollars each, to protecting people from hostile capitalism. (The SEC, the OCC, the FTC, etc etc, are all ultimately about trying to curb capitalist excess. Each of these organizations has a large enforcement bureaucracy, and also a number of full-time salaried researchers.)

The resources and human energy devoted to unfriendly AI are tiny compared to the amount expended on politics and economics. So it's strange to complain about the diversion of resources.

Excellent point. I'm surprised this did not occur to me. This reminds me of Scott Aaronson's reply when someone suggested that quantum computational complexity is quite unimportant compared to experimental approaches to quantum computing and therefore shouldn't get much funding:

I find your argument extremely persuasive—assuming, of course, that we’re both talking about Bizarro-World, the place where quantum complexity research commands megabillions and is regularly splashed across magazine covers, while Miley Cyrus’s twerking is studied mostly by a few dozen nerds who can all fit in a seminar room at Dagstuhl.

2A1987dM
It looks to me like the room in this picture contains more than 100 people.
2asr
Yes. I will revise upwards my impression of how many people are working on Singularity topics. That said, not everybody who showed up at the summit was working on singularity-problems. Some were just interested bystanders.
[-]gwern100

Is this the new 'but what about starving Africans?'

7Lumifer
I think that he sounds mind-killed. Calling the financial system a "hostile AI" sounds cool for about half a second until your brain wakes up and goes "Whaaaaat?" :-) If he really wanted to talk about existing entities with agency and their own interests, well, the notion that the state is one is very very old.
3Stabilizer
Actually, Mike Travers has a whole sequence of excellent posts on ascribing agency to non-human systems over at Ribbonfarm. See here. I particularly recommend the post Patterns of Refactored Agency. I don't think ascribing agency to systems like institutions and collections of institutions is too forced. In fact, institutions seem to exist precisely for preserving and propagating values in the face of changing individuals.
2Lumifer
I'm completely fine with ascribing agency to institutions. I'm not fine with sticking in emotionally-loaded terms and implying that e.g. AI researchers should work on fixing the financial system.
2Stabilizer
But I don't think that his point is that AI researchers, in general, should be working on fixing the financial system. I think his point is that the people at MIRI have chosen AI research because they think that AI is a significant source of threat to human well-being/eixstence from non-human value systems (possibly generated by humans). His claim seems to be that AI may only be a very small part of the problem. Instead, there already exist non-human value systems generated by humans threatening human well-being/existence and we don't know how to fix that. So, I guess the counter-argument from someone at MIRI would go something like: "while it is true that human institutions can threaten human well-being, no human institution seems to have the power in the near future to threaten human existence. But the technology of self-improving AI, can FOOM and threaten human existence. Thus, we choose to work on preventing this outcome."
6Lumifer
First, I am unaware of evidence (though I am aware of a lot of loud screaming) that human institutions pose an existential risk to humanity. I think the closest we come to that is the capability of US and Russia to launch an all-out nuclear exchange. Second, the whole "non-human value systems" is much too fuzzy for my liking. Is self-preservation a human value? Let's take an entity, say a large department within a governmental bureaucracy, the major values of which are self-preservation and the accrual of benefits (of various kinds) to its leadership. Is that a "non-human value system"? Should we call it "hostile AI" and be worried about it? Third, the global financial system (or the "industrial capitalism") is not an institution. It's an ecosystem where many different entities coexist, fight, live, and die. I am not sure ecosystems have agency. Fourth, it looks to me like his argument would shortcut to either a revolution or more malaria nets.
4gjm
OK, fine, unfriendly AIs occupy only a small part of the space of possible non-human agents arising from human action and having value systems different from ours and enough power to do a lot of harm as a result; and businesses and nations and so forth are other possible examples. Furthermore, non-human agents arising [etc.] occupy only a small part of the space of Bad Things. It doesn't follow from the latter that people investigating how to arrange for businesses and nations and whatnot to do good rather than harm are making a mistake; and it doesn't follow from the former that people investigating how to arrange for superhuman AIs (if and when they show up) to do good rather than harm are making a mistake. Why not? Because in each case the more restricted class of entities has particular features that are (hopefully) amenable to particular kinds of study, and that (we fear) pose particular kinds of threat. A large and important fraction of AI-space is occupied by entities with the following interesting features. They are created deliberately by human researchers; they operate according to clear and explicit (but perhaps monstrously complex) principles; their behaviour is, accordingly, in principle amenable to quite rigorous (but perhaps intractably difficult) analysis. Businesses and nations and religions and sports clubs don't have these features, and there's some hope of developing ways of understanding and/or controlling AIs that don't apply to those other entities. It is possible (very likely, according to some) that a large fraction of the probability of a superhuman AI turning up in the nearish future comes from scenarios in which the AI goes from being distinctly subhuman and no threat to anyone, to being vastly superhuman and potentially controlling everything that happens on earth, in so short a time that it's not feasible for anyone (including businesses, nations, etc.) to stop it. Businesses and nations and religions and sports clubs mostly have [
0Nornagest
Upvoted, but I think you're missing a negation in "Businesses and nations and religions and sports clubs mostly have this feature...".
0gjm
Yup, I was. Edited. Thanks! [EDITED to fix an inconsequential thinko.]
0Stabilizer
Excellent summary. Thanks.
0[anonymous]
I think it's spot on.
4Stabilizer
How do you factor in the points made by asr and gjm? In particular, 1. Much effort is already being spent in dealing with the problems posed by industrial capitalism. 2. It's likely that the amount of resources being spent on countering potentially hostile AI (AI as computer programs, not AI as institutions) is less than or equal to the amount justified by that threat.
-2drethelin
What ASR said, and also this is a totally different domain. There is no code for the global financial system and no coder is going to fix it. There is no code for AGI, but some coder somewhere IS going to write it. The idea that fighting against billions of people and a system supported by all the money in the world is the same kind of activity as trying to prove theorems of friendliness is simply dense.
0Emile
How about simulations of various economic/financial/social systems? Those are being done, and require code, and require high-level analysis. I find it perfectly believable that some abstract theoretical computer science / computer simulation work could uncover new insights / new arguments. (that being said, I agree with asr's comment)
-2Lumifer
They also fail pretty badly and are remarkable useless at the moment.
-1Lumifer
Sure there is, it's just that the code is called "laws" and coders are called "legislators".
0drethelin
Laws don't behave like code and legislators don't behave like coders.

Finally have a core mechanic for my edugame about Bayesian networks. At least on paper.

This should hopefully be my last post before I actually have a playable prototype done, even if a very short one (like the tutorial level or something).

[-]Tenoke140

i plan to quit my job and move to an Eastern European country with small costs of living in march. Because of this I am looking for any job that I can do online for around 20 hours a week. I am looking for recommendations on where to look, where to ask, who to contact that might help me, etc. Any help will be appreciated.

8ChristianKl
What skills do you have?
2Tenoke
I have a degree in Psychology. Worked in Admissions mostly. Can do light coding (planning to spend more time on that during my extra free time) and some statistics (ditto). Can't really think of anything else that might be relevant.
2ChristianKl
How do you rate your own writing abilities?
2Tenoke
6-7 / 10 depending on the style and subject matter. Currently trying to improve in that department.
2Nawth
Yvain wrote a good thing about this sort of situation here. I suggest you read the comments too, they have some interesting ideas that aren't in the post proper.
2philh
I have a friend who uses http://tutor.com .
3pragmatist
You need to live in US or Canada to work for tutor.com. At least, that's what it says on their application page.
2Tenoke
This or something similar could be useful. Thanks.
2somervta
Freelancer.com is worthwhile.
2drethelin
You can play online poker. If you play the numbers you can make a steady profit.
5Tenoke
Been there, done that. I stopped back in 2010 when it became clear that the US will manage to forbid its citizens to play with everyone else as I assumed the games will become even less profitable. I imagine that things are even worse now but I haven't looked into it for ages, however if you think there's still money in there then maybe I should investigate.
6RomeoStevens
Holidays can still be decent. I also hear tell there are bitcoin denominated poker rooms full of relatively bad players.
5Tenoke
What? I thought all btc poker rooms are scams and/or almost void of players. This is awesome if true though, I will check it out.

In light of gwern's good experiences with one, I too now have an anonymous feedback form. You can use it to send me feedback on my personality, writing, personal or professional conduct, or anything else.

7knb
The CEO of a company I used to work at put up an anonymous feedback form. He was getting a lot of negative feedback, so he removed it. Problem solved.
8Alsadius
Easy mockery aside, a lot of employees like to gripe, and if the feedback was just the sort of useless whining that 1% of the workforce loves to engage in, then I'd shut it down too(or, possibly more maliciously, leave it up for morale and stop reading it).
3NancyLebovitz
It's an interesting problem. A small proportion of the complaints might be about something urgent--- how do you sort them out from the minor or irrelevant stuff?
0Alsadius
Get rid of the direct communication, and tell your managers that important stuff should get filtered upwards.
1NancyLebovitz
Very funny. Sometimes you can't trust your managers.
0Alsadius
Oh, it's hardly a perfect solution. But unless you hire a secretary to read the mailbox, it's what will happen. And much of the time it's good enough.
5ChrisHallquist
Thanks Kaj. This was the nudge I needed to create my own anonymous feedback form.
5DaFranker
Hadn't heard about this until now. That sounds like a great idea, and thanks / props for putting this up!
2RHollerith
Same here: http://www.admonymous.com/hruvulum

(My thoughts are still not sufficiently organized that I’m making a top level post about this, but I think it’s worth putting out for discussion.)

A couple of years ago, in a thread I can no longer find, someone argued that they valued the pleasure they got from defecation, and that they would not want to bioengineer away the need to do so. I thought this was ridiculous.

At the same time, I see many Lesswrongers view eating as a chore that they would like to do away with. And yet I also find this ridiculous.

So I was thinking about where there difference lay for me. My working hypothesis is that there are two elements of pleasure: relief and satisfaction. Defecation, or a drink of water when you’re very thirsty bring you relief, but not really satisfaction. Eating a gourmet meal, on the other hand, may or may not bring relief, depending on how hungry you are when you eat it, but it’s very satisfying. The ultimate pleasure is sex, which culminates in a very intense sense of both relief and satisfaction. (Masturbation, at least from a male perspective, can provide the relief but only a tiny fraction of the satisfaction – hence the difference in pleasure from sex.)

I can understand... (read more)

8Viliam_Bur
I would like to drink Soylent when I want to focus on something else, and to eat at a restaurant when I want to feel the pleasure of eating. Or maybe sometimes cook at home... but only when I decide to. If I may borrow your analogy, it would be like moving from compulsively masturbating three times a day to having great sex once in a while and doing something else the rest of the time.
2kalium
Some subset of rationalists just don't seem to value pleasure at all. I know one who used to say his only goal in life was the acquisition of information; relief was appreciated in that it eliminated a distraction, but satisfaction just didn't count for anything. Struck me as Puritanical.
2Creutzer
Interesting distinction, it makes intuitive sense, and it's certainly good to be aware that there is a possible satisfaction component to something - but it's still easily possible to value the satisfaction less than you would value being free from the need for the relief component.
2Kaj_Sotala
I feel that both of these can provide satisfaction as well, though I'm less sure about the water. Or they just get more satisfaction from other things than eating.
4NancyLebovitz
I can enjoy drinking water. I'm not sure where this fits on the relief-satisfaction spectrum, but I seem to be optimally hydrated (in terms of mood) if I keep drinking until drinking is no longer a pleasure-- it's a good bit more water than just taking the edge off. I've found that when I mention this to people, they're apt to try to get a measurement out of something which is based on sensation.
2CAE_Jones
I would rather get rid of eating but keep defecation, though I don't know that I could say why. The relief/satisfaction thing is certainly interesting. I once had a conversation in this vein that went like this: If nothing else, the parent got me to evaluate my preferences and realize that I was using them hypocritically in situations such as the above.
0fubarobfusco
I expect that this is a tiny but expressive minority.

I'm having some trouble keeping myself from browsing to timesink websites at work(And I'm self-employed, so it's not like I'm even getting paid for it). Anyone know of a good Chrome app for blocking websites?

4Prismattic
StayFocusd
0Alsadius
That looks like exactly what I was aiming for. Thanks.
0hyporational
I recommend StayFocusd, but if it stops working, make a blacklist in your firewall and put it behind a ridiculously long passphrase that scolds you for not working. Use this one device for work and other devices for play. Oh, and put those other devices in an underground vault 10 miles from your house.
0[anonymous]
If stay StayFocusd stops working, make a blacklist in your firewall and put the settings behind a ridiculously long passphrase. After this, use this one device for work and other devices for play.
0Calvin
I was using Leech Block for old fashioned reddit-block for some time, but then I switched to Rescue Time (free version) which tracks time you spend on certain internet sites, and found it much more user friendly. It does not block the sites, but it shows you a percentage estimate of how productive you are today (e.g. Today, 1 hour on internet out of which 30min on Less Wrong - so 50% productive).

What are you supposed to do when you've nailed up a post that is generally disliked? I figured that once this got to -5 karma it would disappear from view and be forgotten. But it just keeps going down and it's now at -12. This must mean that someone saw the title of it at -11 karma and thought "Sounds promising! Reading this now will be a good use of my time." And then they read it and went: "Arrgh! This turned out to be a disappointing post. Less like this, please. I'd better downvote it to warn others."

What does etiquette suggest I do here? Am I supposed to delete the post to keep people from falling into the trap of reading it? But I like the discussion it spawned and I'd like to preserve it. I'm at a loss and I can't find relevant advice at the wiki.

if we don't have downvoted topics some of the time it means we are being too conservative about what we judge will be useful to others. Only worry if too large a fraction of your stuff gets downvoted.

4Alejandro1
That is a good example of a true Umeshism.

This must mean that someone saw the title of it at -11 karma and thought "Sounds promising! Reading this now will be a good use of my time." And then they read it and went: "Arrgh! This turned out to be a disappointing post. Less like this, please. I'd better downvote it to warn others."

Not necessarily. Seeing a heavily downvoted post seems to trigger some kind of group-norm-reinforcement instinct in me: I often end up wanting to read it in the hopes of it being just as bad as the downvotes imply, so that I could join in the others in downvoting it. And I actually get pleasure out of being able to downvote it.

I'm not very proud of acting on that impulse, especially since I'm not going to be able to objectively evaluate a post's merit if I start reading it while hoping it to be bad. But sometimes I do act on it regardless. (I didn't do that with your post, though.)

4Apprentice
I hadn't thought of this either! It does sound like fun to hunt with the group.
3Lumifer
Don't forget to bring your own torch and pitchfork.
0Vulture
I've noticed myself doing the same thing and I'd like to turn on anti-kibitzing to avoid it, but when I tried it the whole "hiding post authors" thing was so irritating that I stopped.

What are you supposed to do when you've nailed up a post that is generally disliked?

Grin and say "Fuck 'em!"

6David_Gerard
-12 points in the discussion section is a pretty trivial karma hit out o.f the 1132 I see you have at this moment. I'd try to do better next time.
7Apprentice
Clearly, the karma as such is no problem. I just don't want to annoy people by having them read a text which they are likely to find annoying and I don't want to violate rules of etiquette I might not know about. But if it is normal procedure just to leave this as is, then, sure, let's do it that way. It is, of course, somewhat unpleasant to discover that something you wrote is disliked but it also affords an opportunity for learning. Next time I try to get LessWrongers to change diapers, I'll approach it differently.
[-]Emile190

Eh, if someone clicks on an article at -11, then feels reading it was a waste of time, he should blame himself, not you.

1Lumifer
I don't recommend optimizing for what other people on the 'net like.
8ChristianKl
Don't optimize for it. On the other hand it's still good to understand what other people like if you want to convince them. I do write post that I expect to be voted down, when I think they have merit. On the other hand if I can write a post in a way that will be voted down or in a way that will find acceptance I go for the way that will find acceptance.
5ChristianKl
Giving that the post does contain upvoted comments that belong to it deleting it would prevent people from seeing those comments and be bad.
4drethelin
Just leave it. It can serve as lesson to you in the future but in a month no one but you will remember it as it falls off the scroll.
2hyporational
Well, I didn't bother to look this time, but if every bad post got just -5 votes max, the noise would probably unbearable. The extra sting is there for you, not to warn other readers.
6Apprentice
Thank you, I hadn't considered that viewpoint. I actually suspect we have too much sting rather than too little. Compare with this discussion. Furthermore, most of Eliezer's Facebook posts would make good discussion posts or open-thread comments but he posts them there rather than here. I don't know why but maybe he finds it less stressful to post in a system where there are only upvotes and no downvotes. Also compare with this Oatmeal comic: "How I feel after reading 1,000 insightful, positive comments about my work and one negative one: The whole internet hates me :(" Obviously an exaggeration for effect but I do think most people need a very high ratio of positive to negative feedback to feel good about what they're doing. I admit I do. Many of you, of course, are made of sterner stuff, I don't dispute that.
2hyporational
I don't instinctively like downvotes either, and I suspect it's mostly my personality that magnifies everything negative out of proportion i.e. there's depressive bias. However, if I get downvoted for something really stupid, I find the punishment a very useful deterrent that also works for my personal life. It's the inexplicable votes that bug me the most, but hey, you can't please everyone. I subscribed to Eliezer's fb feed about a month ago and I'm glad he doesn't post such unpolished ideas here. I think he also posts there because the commenters are better selected and not anonymous. I might be in favor of an upvote only system, if it weren't for the really terrible outlier posters who need to be hidden quickly. For upvotes only , we would need a completely different visibility system.
3[anonymous]
One way this is often addressed is replacing downvote with flag, and with enough flags it gets hidden (flags and upvotes aren't inverses of each other).
0Viliam_Bur
That doesn't seem to scale well with the number of readers. Some discussions attract more people than others; so in the less popular discussions almost nothing would be flagged, but in the more popular ones, any slightly controversial comment would be flagged.
0[anonymous]
You are assuming a fixed cutoff which I was not.
-4Viliam_Bur
One possible solution would be to edit the article, add "[Deleted]" to the title, remove all text and replace it by an explanation like: "The article was deleted because it received a lot of downvotes, but the discussion seems worth keeping; please don't vote on the article anymore."
5David_Gerard
Do that without removing the actual text.
2ChristianKl
I don't think it worth saying that you remove something because downvotes as the only reason. Either you think that people who disagree have a point or you stand by what you wrote in the past.
[-]pan110

I see from time to time people mention a 'rationalist house' as though it is somewhere they live, and everyone else seems to know what they're talking about. What are are they talking about? Are there many of these? Are these in some way actually planned places or just an inside joke of some kind?

8Ben_LandauTaylor
These are group houses where a bunch of rationalists live together. Sometimes they hold events for the wider community or host visiting rationalists from out of town. I know of several that exist in the Bay Area, one in Boston, and one in New York. There are probably others.
4jefftk
Expanding on Ben's comment: local lesswrong meetup groups often grow into a communities of people who enjoy spending time together, at which point some of the people might decide to rent a house together.

Every single time the subject of overpopulation comes up and I offer my opinion (which is that in some respects the world is overpopulated and that it would benefit us to have a smaller or negative population growth rate), I seem to get one or two negative votes. The negative karma isn't nearly as important to me as the idea that I might be missing some fundamental idea and that those who downvote me are actually right.

Especially, this recent thread: http://lesswrong.com/r/discussion/lw/jgg/we_need_new_humans_please_help/ has highlighted this issue for me again.

So, I'm opening my mind, trying to set aside my biases, and hereby asking all those who disagree with me to give me a rational argument for why I'm wrong and why the world needs more people. If I stray from my objective and take a biased viewpoint, I deserve all the negative karma you can throw at me.

Well, let's try to be a bit more specific about this.

First, what does the claim that "the world is overpopulated" mean? It implies a metric of some sort to which we can point and say "this is too high", "this is too low", "this is just right". I am not sure what this metric might be.

The simplest metric used in biology is an imminent population crash -- if the current count of some critters in an ecosystem is pretty sure to rapidly contract soon we'd probably speak of overpopulation. That doesn't seem to be the case with respect to humans now.

Second, the overpopulation claim is necessarily conditional on a specific level of technology. It is pretty clear that the XXI technology can successfully sustain more people than, say, the pre-industrial technology. One implication is that future technological progress is likely to change whatever number we consider to be the sustainable carrying capacity of Earth now.

Third, and here things get a bit controversial, it all depends (as usual) on your terminal goals. If your wish is for peace and comfort of Mother Gaia, well, pretty much any number of humans is overpopulation. But let's take a common (thoug... (read more)

5Luke_A_Somers
Not if Mother Gaia is expansionist.
3Richard_Kennaway
There's a reason they don't have many people per square mile. It's really difficult to live in large parts of them.
4Lumifer
Southern Siberia, for example, is pretty benevolent and pretty empty.
1passive_fist
I agree that a single metric would be hard to define, but I don't see any problem characterizing it as a combination of various metrics. Is not employment rate vs. population one valid metric, for instance? Or what about worldwide (not just USA, but worldwide average) cost of various foodstuffs vs income? A set of metrics are given in this paper: http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol14/iss2/art32/ Absolutely correct. When I speak of overpopulation, I'm speaking in terms of the present. What is the present population, and what are our current technological capabilities? I entirely agree with you that future technology could make overpopulation moot. But we don't know enough about future technology and sociology to say for certain. My terminal goal is (if I am allowed to speak in somewhat vague terms here) continuing prosperity for individual human beings. My goal is for individuals to have more wealth and access to more resources, and as we know, increasing wealth is correlated with increasing happiness. Throughout the last couple of centuries, and especially in the last century, the quality of life in the developed world increased by leaps and bounds. But it didn't increase as much in many other places in the world. It increased a little, but not that much. I want that increase in quality of life to continue in the West, and I also want it to occur everywhere else as well. By the way, this increase in access to resources is only good up to a limit, of course. What that limit is is the subject of another debate, but I think both you and I would agree that as of the present we are safely below the limits. True, but if you were to disperse the population of India and China around the world, what would be the case then?
3Lumifer
It is not. Is there any correlation between unemployment and overall population across time? I don't think so. Is there any correlation between local population density and local unemployment? I don't think so. Is the unemployment in Hong Kong hugely greater than in Mongolia or Greenland? As with unemployment, look at this criterion over the last few centuries. Even during the XX century I believe the percentage of income spent on food has been steadily dropping in the developed countries. It's funny how the proponents of the overpopulation thesis have absolutely no problems with linearly extending resource consumption lines far into the future but can't say anything about the future technology and so conveniently assume that it won't change. So, that's pretty mainstream. Would you be fine with calling it the total economic wealth of the world? Let's stick to reality.
0passive_fist
So are you saying that the metrics I suggested aren't valid at all, or simply don't make a case for overpopulation existing? That's why I mentioned the worldwide average, not just developed countries. Not total, average. Anyway, it's no use going back-and-forth like this, because I feel like I'm seriously straying from my goal of being neutral and unbiased. I liked Manfred's response because he explicitly mentioned one well-defined issue he thinks I'm overlooking, rather than trying to overcomplicate the discussion.
-1Lumifer
Yes, I don't think they have anything to do with overpopulation.
1passive_fist
Ok thanks, at least now I know where the disagreement lies.
0passive_fist
And now you're down-voting me just because you didn't read my post before replying?
2Lumifer
I am not downvoting you. I rarely up- or downvote posts in threads in which I participate, anyway.
1passive_fist
Yeah that came out entirely different to what I had intended to ask. Retracted.

I don't recall downvoting you, but I think that there is a very high chance technology makes the problem moot - either by killing us or by alleviating scarcity until a superintelligence happens.

4passive_fist
I agree with you that future technology will probably allow us to sustain far far greater population than we can now. However, my view concerns problems were are creating at the present, and not all present problems can be retroactively solved with future technology. For instance, if you value biodiversity in the natural world (and there are good, practical reasons to do so), and biodiversity is lost, it's irreversible. Once the gene pool of a species is wiped out it is extremely difficult to restore it again. And sure, even though species go instinct all the time irrespective of human activity, throughout the history of the planet, the long-term trend of biodiversity has been to go up. Now, as to whether human activity is decreasing biodiversity, it's a complex subject and I don't claim to be very knowledgeable about it. As far as I've heard in the scientific literature, humans are negatively affecting biodiversity. A very nice review of human activity and socioeconomic progress and their impact on biodiversity is given in this paper: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X11001051 This book does a nice job of explaining the interrelationships between biodiversity, poverty, and overpopulation: http://www.amazon.com/gp/search?index=books&linkCode=qs&keywords=111842848X
2[anonymous]
I broadly agree with your opinion, provided certain socioeconomic problems resulting from population contraction could be overcome.
-2Gunnar_Zarncke
Then you have to agree in any case as population contraction must happen after hitting the limit (all simulations of the "limits to grows" study show overshoot) and I'd guess that the earlier this is addressed the better.
0Alsadius
It's an argument based on false premises. Limitations on resources have, in past, proven to be fairly meaningless, and there's no particular reason to believe this will change going forward. Every time we think we've hit a wall(running out of wood in the 18th century, whales in the 19th century, food in the 20th century, or oil in the 21st century), we've come up with new technologies to keep going without much trouble(coal, oil, GMOs/agricultural chemistry, and tar sands/fracking respectively). Limitations on space are even less relevant. Conversely, we've built first-world societies on a governmental safety net that only actually works with an increasing population. If we don't grow, then pension plans will start detonating like someone's carpet-bombing the economy. (Yes, worse than they are already). I think the people who created those pyramid schemes should be taken out behind the woodshed for a posthumous beatdown, but it's a bit late to fix it now. If you want to know what a negative population growth rate looks like, look at what will happen to China over the next couple decades. It's the biggest demographic time bomb in human history. Also, if you're bringing sustainability into this, IMO the only truly sustainable option is to advance technology so fast that we can defeat the Second Law somehow. Anything else just delays the inevitable.
7Lumifer
Or you can look at Japan right now. Their total workforce has been contracting for the last few years and the only way to go is down. And their amount of government debt is not a coincidence.
-1Alsadius
Yup, them too. Both were held up as countries that were going to overwhelm the US through their superior economic performance, both are going to suffer long and agonizing collapses as their demography ruins them. I went with the more topical example, but Japan is probably the better one, because they're so much further along.
3Lumifer
A "long collapse" is a bit of an oxymoron -- presumably you mean they will collapse and stay collapsed. But that raises an interesting question -- can a society/country downscale without a collapse? Theoretically, it's perfectly doable -- you population decreases, so does your GDP but not GDP per capita. You just have more space for less people. In practice, of course, there are issues.
1lmm
Taking away the pensions of people who've paid a tax that's supposed to fund pensions all their lives would be political suicide.
3Lumifer
It depends on what the alternative is. If you have nothing to pay pensions with, you have nothing to pay pensions with. See Detroit. For sovereigns who can print fiat money the situation is a bit more complicated but the same in medium term. The amount of money doesn't matter, what matters is the amount of value that the country produces and which it then redistributes among people. If there is not enough value, printing money will just lead you into an inflationary spiral.
1Alsadius
I don't regard "collapse" as referring to something instantaneous. The fall of Rome, for example, could be referred to as a multi-century collapse. And in principle, yes, it could happen. But in practice, before people die, they get old. And old people suck, economically speaking.
6knb
This isn't even slightly true. Historically the the normal state for humanity was malthusian stagnation. Resource limits were a hard fact of life, with lots of people starving at the margins. Yes, we've escaped from Malthusian conditions for the time being, but progress is already stagnating. I think planning to limit population growth is a common sense idea, although as a coordination problem, this seems hard to solve (how do we punish defectors, etc.)
1Alsadius
We are currently producing enough food to feed the highest population the Earth is expected to ever at any point have. We are doing so in perfectly sustainable fashion. Malthus is dead. Edit: For clarity, the sustainable fashion I refer to may involve shifts to less meat consumption, between different sorts of crops, or the substitution of machinery with more labour, to deal with various future crises. Modern crops and farming knowledge alone, which should both survive even a collapse of civilization largely intact, ought to be enough to feed any projected human population. It's theoretically possible for Mathus to come back, but the conditions that would lead to it are so unlikely that for the purposes of ordinary debate it can safely be said to be a fixed problem.
3Creutzer
We are, in point of fact, not feeding that population you are talking about. We are feeding merely a part of it.
1Alsadius
We're feeding essentially all of it - out of a world population of over 7,000,000,000, about 400,000 die of malnutrition per year. World food production per person is as high as it's ever been, over 2700 calories per person per day(which is really not a starvation diet). The ones who aren't getting fed are dying for logistical, financial, and administrative reasons, not because there's any sort of global food shortage.
2kalium
Have you read The Mote In God's Eye?
0Alsadius
I have not. Summary of the point you're making, please?
1kalium
That, in the long run, due to natural selection, population will increase to match increased food production. Improvements in farming technology only buy a temporary abundance.
-1Alsadius
Our food supplies have been getting more secure for centuries, and we've seen no meaningful selection pressure towards larger families as a result - quite the opposite, in fact. And this isn't a millions-of-years sort of selection, this is the sort that ought to be apparent in a few generations. I don't think that number of children is really a heritable trait - it's a cultural and economic effect, and even if you start speaking of cultural evolution, the economics of having lots of kids are so bad today that there's no selection pressure in that direction. In principle you're probably right, but by the time we need to worry about Malthus again, the name "Malthus" may well be forgotten.
2Douglas_Knight
How do you know which sort it is? Heritability depends on the environment. It is quite plausible that it is much more heritable in the modern environment than the pre-modern one. I don't want to discuss this, just to suggest that you might be very confused.
4Kaj_Sotala
As far as I can tell, this argument seems to be the same as "technology has improved before, letting us overcome resource limitations, and there's no particular reason to believe that the new innovations will stop coming". But that sounds much more suspect. There have been cultures that collapsed due to resource limitations before, and the current trend of very fast growth in our ability to extract more resources or replace them with more easily extractable ones has only been going on for some hundreds of years. "We will always be able to come up with the kinds of innovations that will save us" is a very strong claim, implying that observed cases of diminishing returns in various extraction techniques (e.g. taking advantage of tar sands requires a much larger energy investment and is much less efficient than traditional sources of oil, AFAIK) don't matter since we'll always be able to switch something completely different. There don't seem to be any strong theoretical arguments in support of that, as far as I can tell - only the observation that we've happened to manage it of late.
1Alsadius
It's a somewhat weaker claim. Society isn't really dependant on any single resource - oil is the closest we come, and even oil is only really essential in aviation and certain chemical processes(and it can be synthesized for that). My claim is closer to "No essential combination of resources will run out before replacement technology is available". Still strong, admittedly, but weaker. That said, I will freely agree that we're going to take a financial hit as certain supplies run low. Oil will likely never again be as cheap as it was 20 years ago, because the extraction of our reserve oil supplies is so much more complex and expensive. It won't be pleasant. But our society has a technological mindset, huge diversification, and a larger base of wealth than all of humanity before living memory combined. I think we'll do better than Easter Island did. And yes, there's no theoretical reason it has to be true. But the accumulated evidence that it generally is is pretty strong. How many of the catastrophes predicted in recent centuries have actually come to pass, if society has had 5+ years to prepare? Peak oil, the population bomb, nuclear war, Y2K, expansionist Germans(twice!), the collapse of the Internet, and on and on. All of those were perfectly real concerns, and had the potential to be devastating if left unchecked. But we saw them coming, took steps to deal with it, and beat back all of them, many so thoroughly that nobody even noticed that they'd been and gone.
4NancyLebovitz
We can beat the pension-based need for more people by vastly increasing productivity and ameliorating the effects of old age and/or automating more of the care of debilitated people
5Lumifer
And how will this happen? The productivity growth has slowed down considerably and shows no signs of picking up, never mind "vastly increasing".
3Kaj_Sotala
Well, there was at least one report suggesting that half of all jobs might be automated over the next two decades.
4Lumifer
You are overstating the report's conclusions -- it said the "jobs might be at risk" which sounds to me like "we want to sound impressive but actually don't have anything to say". I've paged through the report and wasn't impressed. For example (emphasis mine), "...First, together with a group of ML researchers, we subjectively hand-labelled 70 occupations, assigning 1 if automatable, and 0 if not. ... Our label assignments were based on eyeballing the O∗NET tasks and job description of each occupation." Essentially this a bunch of guesses and opinions with little support in the way of evidence.
0Alsadius
Productivity, agreed. Ameliorating the effects of old age, disagree - too many people treat retirement at 65 to be a God-given right for any real bump in the retirement age to solve things any time soon. Remember, this was an age set by Otto von Bismarck, and it's remained unchanged since - we've already had massive increases in quality of life for the elderly, and it's done nothing to improve the financial footings of the pension system(Quite the opposite, really). Automating the care of the elderly will help some, but you're still left with extremely low workforce participation and a very high dependent ratio. That's not a pleasant situation, even if you don't need millions of people working in nursing homes.

Two unrelated things (should I make these in separate posts or...?):

1.) Given recent discussion on social justice advocates and their... I don't know the best way to describe this, sometimes poor epistemological habits? I thought I would post this

http://geekfeminism.wikia.com/wiki/Concern_troll

Is this it just me, or is this, like, literally the worst concept ever? It literally just means "someone slightly to the right of me" or "someone does anything that could be considering cheering for the other side", backed with a dubious claim tha... (read more)