Open Thread - Aug 24 - Aug 30

Does anyone know of any posts or resources that are targeted at rationalists that help with extracting yourself and recovering from an abusive relationship?

I've been a longtime student of LessWrong and related communities, studied physics at a top school, great at programming, very introspective etc. etc. All the regular boxes checked. Just a week ago I left a relationship that I realized has become extremely abusive (both emotionally and physically) and I'm having a lot of trouble understanding how I ever got in that situation. Having intensely strong signals from my rational side (RUN RUN) and even stronger signals from my emotional side (GO BACK, YOU HAVE TO HELP HER) is a very uncomfortable position for me to be in and something I've never experienced before.

I had a moment of clarity a week ago after my significant other threatened in a calm, honest tone to give me sleeping pills, cut off certain of my body parts, and then make me watch her put them down the garbage disposal. I opened up to my entire family about everything going on over a frantically intense few hours because I realized soon I would go back to hiding what was going on so that everyone would continue to love h... (read more)

[-]Viliam9y140

Does anyone know of any posts or resources that are targeted at rationalists that help with extracting yourself and recovering from an abusive relationship?

I hope you don't wait with getting help until you find something targeted specifically for rationalists. Get all the help you can right now. A little bullshit here and there may annoy you, but non-rationalists can also have a lot of domain-specific knowledge.

GO BACK, YOU HAVE TO HELP HER

If there are any methods -- rational or not -- to erase this feeling from your mind, do it a.s.a.p. That is priority #1. Stop your brain from ruining your life.

Congratulations on telling your family. Actually, telling anyone. Saying certain things aloud allows one to think about them more clearly.

5escapealias9y

Thanks for this. I am pursuing help. I have scheduled appointments with two therapists (first office visit today) and I'm looking for a third to try to find one that I can work well with. Erasing the dangerous thoughts is the hardest part and what I wish I had better methods for. I'm in general the type of person that likes to help others, and feel more empathy for her than any other person. Part of the reason I stayed so long is that I viewed the way she was treating me as an illness and thought to myself, what would I do if she had cancer? I'd stick around and be supportive and try to get her the help she needs. That's what I should do here. That analogy breaks when you start to not feel safe though, something that took me too long to realize.

[-]Viliam9y170

Erasing the dangerous thoughts is the hardest part and what I wish I had better methods for.

Finally an opportunity to use my Dark Arts for the benefit of humanity. Here it goes:

You see the abusive mentality of your girlfriend as an illness, and your support as a cure. Your urge to stay is rationalized as a hypothesis that being there, exposing yourself to the abuse, somehow cures the illness. Now let's ignore the fact that it is you and your girlfriend for a moment, and ask a general question: Do you really believe, as a general rule, that the best way to cure abusive people is to give them a supply of victims? Is there any psychological pubblication suggesting that this could be true? If you were a psychologist, would you recommend this as a therapy? Because as far as I know, it is exactly the opposite: enabling harmful behavior, protecting people from natural consequences of their actions, makes it more difficult to heal. That means, your staying in the relationship actually makes your girlfriend's illness worse.
Returning to your specific case, is it your personal experience that the longer you are with your girlfriend, the less abusive she gets? (Something like: at the be

... (read more)

2escapealias9y

Thank you for this, exactly the kind of thing I was looking for. Believe it or not, I've had almost every one of these thoughts myself over the last year and a half. Nope. Don't believe it at all. I have data to the contrary. I've spent a year and a half trying and the abuse has gotten progressively worse. No. She doesn't acknowledge that she has a problem. When I try to talk to her about getting help she says that her problems are because of me and if I would just do what she says (a long an unreasonable and constantly shifting list) she would get better. She also believes I deserve what she does because I "push her over the edge." Absolutely not I do this all the time. I of course would not leave her to sacrifice myself for an abusive stranger. It would tell me to leave ASAP and never look back. It would be sent as close to the beginning of the relationship as the time machine allowed. Yes and no. I believe moral duties apply to everyone and she has certainly failed at fulfilling hers. I don't think it's her fault, however you want to parse that sentence, but the consequences are real for me and should be for her too. It wouldn't at all. I do care about helping others and in my normal state I'm an extremely high functioning and successful person. I've basically become a drone that works and worries about her and that's about it. I miss my former self and getting that back is one of the things that excites me most. Thanks for the long response. The most difficult part of all this is feeling a bit insane myself. My rational mind can output the right answers, but I haven't been following them. Introspection and internal consistency (and a willingness to update) has always been something I'm naturally good at and valued greatly. I'm not the same person I was before this started and that's terrifying. I feel like I'm on the road to recovery though. Your comments are very helpful.

3Viliam9y

Heh. From a certain point of view, she really doesn't. If she cuts you up, that would be your problem. A friend of a friend was dating a person who would fit this description exactly, and... well, it would be a long story. Towards the end the person demanded that they spend the whole day together, every day, which made them both unable to keep a job, so they just kept borrowing as much money as was possible from anyone. The victim was completely brainwashed, and despite trying to do everything, was beaten regularly, more and more severely. At the end, the victim's family kidnapped the victim and kept them in another country for a few months, not allowing them to use phone or internet. This finally allowed the victim to "awaken". Meanwhile the abuser was evicted from the appartment they haven't paid rent for. Instead of finding a job, the abuser spent all their time trying to contact the victim, manipulating a wide social network quite successfully; but the family did a good job at hiding the victim until their "awakening", at which point the victim didn't want to see the abuser anymore. I don't have detailed information about what happened afterwards; I believe the family didn't call the police, but threatened to do so if the abuser tries to approach the victim anymore. (Institutions scare the abuser like shit.) The abuser is now homeless, works for food, and keeps a blog about how this all was a conspiracy of unfavorable parents against the True Love, with prayers to God to make the victim return to them. Note: the abuser is an atheist, but the victim is strongly religious; everything the abuser does is a calculated manipulation. Hopefully, as a homeless person, their ability to charm and seduce people will be diminished. The victim is back, living a normal life again, as far as I know. This happened about five years ago. So, congratulations on quitting soon enough! You were not harmed; you didn't lose your job and savings. For the victim in my story, it took l

1[anonymous]9y

If you felt empathy for her, it would be the feeling of threatening to hurt you. You are feeling sympathy, guilt or something else. There is a difference.

0Gunnar_Zarncke9y

I disagree with the one-sidedness of this advice - esp. without knowing all that much about the situation. I have also been in a not really alike but also difficult situation and there are many layers. See also this. It might be that he understands only just too well that it was a mutual cycle. It might also be a cry for help on her side. Not that the method is acceptable but a signal it is. And I imagine a smart person can help her. Without going back. Someone else might help. Whatever help is the right kind here.

[-]Viliam9y120

I'm still stuck in the Dark Arts mode and I'm aware of it, but I will ask you anyway:

Would you also give the same relationship advice to a battered woman?

2Gunnar_Zarncke9y

I didn't give any advice. I urged for understanding that the situation might be more complex and layered than implied by the simplicity of the advice IN ALL CAPS. I hedged with lots of 'might' and 'if'. And I didn't intend to imply that the relationship should be repaired (at least not the romantic one; one cpuld hope to get along well though). In my worldview everyone is the hero of their own story to use that old picture and I work from the assumption that no side meant evil. It is difficult and may in many cases be impossible to untangle the vicious circle that developed. but even if one doesn't interact personally after the break-up doesn't mean that one can not or may not feel empathy and help. It could be possible to help indirectly in many ways like telling mutual friends or acquaintances to help. Offer to contact help lines or even offer material expenses (quite relevant in cases of break-ups). If these are refused or accusations are made due to it for me personally the human possible limit is reached. Also I don't think that there is a moral responsibility to help that much at all. Everyone has to draw ones individual line somewhere. Maybe I'm more altruistic than average. And yes. Obviously I'd also propose to listen to a battered woman when she proposes to help her ex. If she understands the dynamics of his anger and maybe her part in the mutual circle. I don't propose that she go back to him though.

9tim9y

This feeds directly into what the OP has just broken free from: a cycle of continuously re-convincing himself that this relationship might not be what it appears on the surface and that he still has a responsibility to the other party. One-sided advice is exactly what the brain needs to stop it from falling back to the endless well of excuses and rationalizations.

-1Gunnar_Zarncke9y

Maybe. But if you don't know more than I do from what what posted here your can't say with the strength you did in your post (though agree that by now some more details have become apparent). I have been in a probably much less but still abusive relationship and if your are smart, reflective and it's not too abusive (though I guess that the level of abuse changes over time) you can break up without loosing everything of the relationship. After all both sides have a part in it and by denying worth one looses or misrepresents also ones own part in it. My view of her and us has changed by our breakup but I salvaged positive emotion for her, esp. the things we did right and what was good about her - without feeling compelled to help her overly. A point he is over too apparently now (yes, it does take time). Could you back that up with non-anecdotal evidence please.

[-]OrphanWilde9y100

Speaking as somebody who could easily be on the other side of that equation, except for a very rigorous moral system, including a rule to stay the hell away from people who scream "Victim!" into my brain, I can tell you exactly how you got into that situation.

She became whatever you needed her to be, in order for you to be the target she wanted you to be. (I can manipulate anybody into doing anything. I just have to become the person they would do that thing for - and my self is flexible in ways most people couldn't imagine.)

In particular, she became somebody who needed help, because you would try to help her.

It's important to realize - she doesn't need help. She never needed help. The person you want to help doesn't exist, and never did. That person was a mask that the person who threatened you wore to make you vulnerable.

Allow yourself to mourn the person you thought she was. But do not imagine that that person was ever her.

0[anonymous]9y

I've been thinking about your post for some time. It's sounds compelling and I can't quite put my finger on why. I want to rule out that it's just cause I like the things you post and your style. Can you elaborate on your victim rule please? Perhaps you don't want to be the target an accusation of victimisation by someone who misattributes that status to people?

-2OrphanWilde9y

When I say they scream "Victim!", it's in something the way a rabbit's movements yell in a wolf's brain. It's hard to describe. It draws out predatory elements.

0Calien9y

Thank you for the insight. To all those who've read some HPMoR, I find it interesting that that's basically how Quirrel describes his and Harry's... differences from most people.

-5[anonymous]9y

4Elo9y

Please write more about every part of your experience. As we know from a related field; "people who are sleep deprived don't know how sleep deprived they are". People in an abusive relationship don't know they are in an abusive relationship (until the moment of clarity) any writing about noticing things will help people potentially get away from bad relationships. Edit: have some karma to help you recover and/also reap successful feeling from your present adventure

7escapealias9y

Thanks for the encouragement, I do intend to write more. It's only been a week since I removed myself from the situation, and I'm already starting to feel shocked at how much worse it was than I realized at the time. Seeing the faces and hearing the comments of friends and family when I tell them stories makes a world of difference. Not one person has told me I'm making a bad decision. If you'd asked me 3 years ago if I could ever be in a situation like this I would have assigned it very very low probability. Low probability events happen, but I think what is more likely is that it's a lot easier than I thought to become normalized to an increasingly toxic environment over time. I think the best advice I could give so far is, if you think you're in an abusive relationship, talk to people about it. On some level I knew something was very wrong, but I began lying to family and friends about what was going on. I did this both to protect her, and to protect our future relationships as a couple. I was always optimistic about getting to a better place, and I didn't want people to hate her once we were there. I told my mother one small story once (far from the worst thing that had happened, and one story among many) and she called me in tears several weeks later saying she was worried I'd hate her for it but she had to tell me that she didn't think the wedding was a good idea (we were engaged). I'm going to write a lot over the coming weeks and will make a post here if I think I uncover any worthwhile advice.

4Fluttershy9y

There's this, both for dealing with the aftermath of the break-up, as well as the break-up itself.

1escapealias9y

Thank you very much this is helpful.

1Elo9y

beat me to it!

3Strangeattractor9y

I think your feelings will change over time. Changing how you think about something may not change how you feel now, but it may lead to changes in how you feel in the future. It kind of sucks right now, but I don't think this conflict between your feelings and thoughts is permanent. It's a temporary thing you are going through. Here are some articles I read that helped me understand abusive relationships a little better. “I Can Handle It”: On Relationship Violence, Independence, and Capability http://www.feministe.us/blog/archives/2011/08/08/i-can-handle-it-on-relationship-violence-independence-and-capability/ It’s Not Your Relationship That’s Abusive, It’s Your Partner – Here’s Why That Distinction Matters http://everydayfeminism.com/2015/05/its-not-your-relationship-thats-abusive-its-your-partner-heres-why-that-distinction-matters/ Also, when a friend of mine was in a similar situation, he said that reading a book about Borderline Personality Disorder was helpful. His girlfriend had that. Your situation may be different. I also think it may help to read books to help learn about and remember what healthy relationships look like. John Gottman's books are my favourite for that. Gottman has studied thousands of real life couples in his lab and has a good idea of what works and what doesn't. Here's one that I liked, though if another of his books jibes with you more, then you might want to get that one: Why Marriages Succeed and Fail by John Gottman http://www.amazon.com/Why-Marriages-Succeed-Fail-Yours/dp/0684802414/ And, Gottman has studied abusive relationships, and attempted to figure out why people abuse, and what patterns they have. He wrote a book about it, focusing on men abusing women, but I think it would be useful in the reverse situation. When Men Batter Women by John Gottman and Neil Jacobson https://www.gottman.com/shop/when-men-batter-women/

0NancyLebovitz9y

That first link is very interesting-- what I'm taking away from it is that there is no shortcut. Your gut isn't necessarily on your side. Neither is your partner. The ideology which says it's on your side may not be quite as good as you think it is. The odds (if we can go with the article and its comments) that your friends are on your side are relatively good, but it's still a gamble. You have to keep drilling down and hope that you hit reality.

3Vladimir_Golovin9y

Buy and read this book right now: "No More Mr. Nice Guy" by Robert Glover (I can't tell from your post whether you are male or female, but it doesn't matter. The book is equally good for either.) In essence, this book may help you learn how to stop being a victim, how to set your own limits, and how to get your own needs met. It also may inoculate you against getting into future relationships like this.

2[anonymous]9y

As someone who has been through a lot of abuse, beware. Your future self, not your current self, feels the fallout from the abuse more so than your current self. You have adapted to your abusive situation, when it goes away, you will be maladapted. Get out. Just take it on blind faith that you should get out if you have to. You don't want to end up like me. In my case I was indeed subjected to violence like what might happen to you. To this day, I regret not retaliating, killing my abuser or torturing them back to save myself from even a portion of it. And I'm well aware that's very much not normal. Now, even though I have the opportunity, I don't want to and won't, but if I could go back in time, well...the point is that you should get out, and that's not at all going to be the hard point from there.

0WalterL9y

If someone threatens you and/or abuses you, call the police. That stuff is illegal. Do so as soon as you safely can.

[-]Daniel_Burfoot9y190

Do any digital nomads read LessWrong? What region are you in? How did you setup your remote work? What is the best/worst feature of the lifestyle? What was the biggest surprise? Is anyone else thinking about trying out the lifestyle?

7CWG9y

I tried it, but at the time I found it very hard to focus. it's a lot like working at home – you need to be very good at creating your own routines and structure, and managing your own projects. If that's not you, develops those skills first. Getting work where you train those skills is a good approach.

[-]NancyLebovitz9y140

http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-interleaving-effect-mixing-it-up-boosts-learning/

Argues for mixing up what you're learning (at least within a subject) rather than trying to just focus on one thing at a time.

[-]NancyLebovitz9y120

The value of interleaving is evidence that a lot of conventional education is about teaching people to endure boredom, and this is a very bad mistake.

1[anonymous]9y

It's weak evidence for the first, proposition, but I don't think it's any evidence for the second. I suspect you're right, but to play devils advocate, it could be that training/selecting for grit could be more important for future success than the learning is.

1NancyLebovitz9y

It's at least a little evidence that training people to endure boredom is a bad idea, since boredom is part of inefficient learning. School has enough prestige that I think a lot of people come out of it believing that if they can't learn in a school like environment, they can't learn at all. Sometimes they just apply it to one subject, sometimes to all subjects commonly taught in school, sometimes they give up on learning.

0Viliam9y

Oh, yeah. Boredom is almost synonymous with school. :(

5btrettel9y

Interleaving is great. After reading about this a few months ago, I realized how I did Anki was bad. I had separate decks for each subject. To interleave, you could put everything in one deck, but you'd only be able to organize by tag then. I figured out a better way to interleave in Anki. Create a filtered deck which takes X random cards from all your other decks. You can make X as big or small as you want. Incidentally, this also made me realize how much of a cue studying by deck was. The subject of some cards was no longer obvious because of how I wrote them, so I've slowly been disambiguating them. This is good, I think, as in reality you often don't have such a strong cue that says "use knowledge from X subject".

2richard_reitz9y

For those interested in further reading: Robin Hanson's take, popularly-written book.

[-]cleonid9y90

Recent discussion topics on Omnilibrium:

[-]Lumifer9y80

Hey, look: data.

Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for 306 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 188 countries, 1990–2013: quantifying the epidemiological transition

[-]jkadlubo9y80

I had a realization today that does not grant a separate thread.

I'm reading RAZ and got to Mysterious Answers, specifically Explain/Worship/Ignore?

I have kids. Most people know that kids love the question "why?" (If you didn't know - now you do. My family of origin has a joke that the last question of a longest stretch was number 37: why is mummy chewing on the carpet?)

When my daughter asks "why", I give her some answers usually pondering how I can influence the direction of the questions and information that I give her*. But in light o... (read more)

5Tem429y

Why questions are very good and should be encouraged! But also, it is worth improving the questions, in addition to just answering them. So if a child asks "why is the bus going?", you can ask for a clarification "Do you mean what makes it move? Or do you mean where is it going?"; this models clearer language and better communication skills, it helps the child get an answer to the specific question that they intended, and it prevents why-questions from becoming the default I'm-bored-so-I-will-say-why-until-people-get-sick-of-talking-to-me routine. Sorry, I know that was slightly off-topic.

[-]Ozyrus9y60

Are there any lesswrong-like sequences focused on economics, finance, business, management? Or maybe just internet communities like lesswrong focused on these subjects?

I mean, the sequences introduced me to some really complex knowledge that improved me a lot, while simultaneously being engaging and quite easy to read. It is only logical to assume that somewhere on the web, there must be some articles in the same style covering different themes. And if there are not, well, someone must surely do this, I think there is some demand for this kind of content. ... (read more)

2NancyLebovitz9y

Eliezer used an approach of gradual but entertaining introduction so that a good many people stayed interested even though he was also encouraging them to make significant changes in the way they think. He also offered varied and interesting examples so that people understood what he meant. I think you're overoptimistic about equivalent sequences for other subjects. I hope I'm wrong.

0OrphanWilde9y

http://eco-comics.blogspot.com/ <- For economics - not a sequence, per se, but covering a broad range of material in an entertaining and (AFAIK) novel way. http://eco-comics.blogspot.com/2009/06/justice-league-and-comparative.html <- Probably the best post there

[-]Gunnar_Zarncke9y50

Link: Computer-based [big five] personality judgments are more accurate than those made by humans

[-]polymathwannabe9y50

Harvard Business Review: We're all terrible at understanding each other.

[-]fubarobfusco9y50

I find myself occasionally in conversations that aim at choosing one of two (or more) courses of action. Here are some patterns that arise that frustrate me:

A: We'll get to City in an hour. When we're there, do you want to do X? Or maybe Y?
B: I haven't thought about it yet, I've been dodging sheep and potholes. What do you want to do?
A: Whatever you're comfortable doing.
B: Umm ... Which is easier to get to?
A: I don't know. Or, we could do C, D, or E?
B: Now I'm getting choice paralysis.
A: Well, I wanted to see if you were really enthusiastic for any of them... (read more)

9Dagon9y

This happens to my spouse and me very often. We've gotten pretty good at noticing after the second "I dunno, what do you want to do" round that we need to switch from ask mode to tell mode. Don't give options, just propose something, and say "any objection must take the form of a counterproposal" (yes, we say literally this sentence to each other a few times a week). Especially when one partner is more tired than the other, we can instead just have the more engaged partner pick something and the tired one get one or two vetos before being forced to step up and actually accept something. This isn't always comfortable, especially when it's unclear that there exists a good solution.

0SarahSrinivasan9y

Most of my social circle says "dinner semantics" to mean exactly this. So far we've skirted but basically avoided the trap of gaming it by bluffing - proposing an option you know is unacceptable to force someone else to propose.

4NancyLebovitz9y

It sounds to me as though the problem is that neither of you are very enthusiastic about any of the choices. One possibility is to identify a list of what's tolerable and then use a random method for choosing. Another is to talk with each other about what each of you really like at a time when you aren't distracted and tired. It's conceivable that one or both of you aren't good at remembering what you really like, in which case keeping records would help.

3Tem429y

Along the same lines, although less generally applicable but with higher potential payoff; if neither person is very enthusiastic about an activity, it is worth looking at ways to eliminate it, change it, or automate it. For example, if you are not enthusiastic about going out to eat, you might look at eating at home; if you do not want to go into the city, perhaps only one of you should go, or perhaps you can look into way to order goods online and complete tasks remotely. The pro and con list of each of these modifications is long, and any given solution might work for you. However, I have had good results from deleting 'meh' activities from my routines, and things like hanging out with your SO and eating are really supposed to be intrinsically motivating, not exercises in satisficing.

1Strangeattractor9y

I would usually approach these types of decisions by doing research in advance, so that the options can be considered when not driving over potholes and hungry. For example, the day before going to a city, A and B could each look up yelp reviews of restaurants in the city, and each write down a first choice and a second choise of the restaurants they would most like to go to, given constraints (eg. close to their other destination, open at the right time.) Then they could compare lists, and discuss, and decide which restaurant to go to before even leaving for the destination. My impression from reading the conversations is that A and B are relatively good at communicating. They have different styles of communicating and different preferences. Over time, A and B might get to know each other's preferences better and be able to predict how the other person will respond with more accuracy, and that may shorten the amount of time it takes. I'm not sure there is a shortcut to convergence. The problem may be more that you are discussing things when tired and hungry and doing other things such as driving. If you have such conversations while you are both feeling kind of crappy, it may take longer to sort things out than if you discuss when in better circumstances.

[-]Elo9y50

Meta: This thread was late; the usual guy was busy. I guess I am volunteering to do it for MrMind.

3Dahlen9y

That's fine, but could you please change the font to the default one? Comic Sans is... ehh, not the best choice for most things.

8Elo9y

My eternal apologies - I don't see it these days because I browse with this - Comic sans browsing for chrome. https://chrome.google.com/webstore/detail/comicsans/gjdmedkdcpefbnnkiogiiejipfepjdhm?hl=en It's delightful.

[-]Username9y40

Heh. Qualify this under "crazy ideas". Chinese tech companies are motivating programmers by hiring cheerleaders. It would be interesting to know if this increases productivity. Do cheerleaders help improve results sports teams?

[-]WalterL9y180

My instinct is that cheerleaders don't improve results for sports teams, but that that also isn't their function.

On the original topic, I've actually encountered the situation of "environment filled with dude programmers with poor social skills suddenly gets a few very attractive ladies who have incentives to be nice to them." My frat went co-ed senior year.

To put things mildly, productivity did not improve.

On the other hand, a lot more guys wanted to join up. So my guess is that the office cheerleaders do not make existing programmers more productive (and may in fact do the opposite), but that they may make the office more desirable as a work environment to prospective hires.

[-]Stingray9y100

That depends on what you consider to be the main purpose of a sports team - winning matches or providing entertainment and selling tickets to their games.

9cousin_it9y

The best response to that article that I've seen so far: -- burgerissues on reddit

3Good_Burning_Plastic9y

Related: -- Scott Aaronson

3VoiceOfRa9y

I could cite numerous examples suggesting otherwise, NASA during the Mercury/Gemini/Apollo era being the most famous.

0Good_Burning_Plastic9y

Details?

0VoiceOfRa9y

Well mission control and the astronaut core were all male. Didn't seem to interfere with their ability to attract and retain top talent.

1Lumifer9y

Never saw a CS department that looked like a monastery. As to pirate ships, well... :-D

3Lumifer9y

They don't seem to be exactly cheerleaders. Their function seems to very similar to that of hostesses in nightclubs.

2PhilGoetz9y

Possibly. It depends what you hire them to do. See "The Wolf of Wall Street" for an example of effective (in the short term) motivation.

[-]tetronian29y40

Suppose someone offers you the chance to play the following game:

You are given an initial stake of $1. A fair coin is flipped. If the result is TAILS, you keep the current stake. If the result is HEADS, the stake doubles and the coin is flipped again, repeating the process.

How much money should you be willing to pay to play this game?

[-]jefftk9y120

Outcomes:

1 flip  --- $1  probability 1/2
2 flips -- $2  probability 1/4
3 flips -- $4  probability 1/8
4 flips -- $8  probability 1/16
...

The expected value doesn't converge but it grows extremely slowly, where almost all the benefit comes from an extremely tiny chance of extremely large gain. The obvious question is counterparty risk: how much do you trust the person offering the game to actually be able to follow through with what they offered?

If we think of this as a sum over coin flips, each flip you think is possible gives another $0.50 in expected value. So if you think they're probably only good for amounts up to $1M then because it takes 20 flips to pass $1M the expected value is $0.50 * 19 or $9.50. Similarly if you think they're good for $1B then that's 29 flips max for an expected value of $14.50. You could be fancy and try to model your uncertainty about how much they're good for, but that's probably not worth it. And you do want to take into account that someone offering something like this with no provision for how they'll handle extremely large payouts is probably not entirely on the level.

Expected value is also not the right metric here, since we all have diminishing marginal returns. Would you enjoy $1B 1,000x as much as $1M? Even if you're giving your winnings to charity there are still some limits to our ability to effectively use additional donations.

Short answer: $5. (This trusts them to be good for $1024, and is in a range where utility should still be pretty much linear in money.)

29eB19y

I was thinking that you should take into account the fact that if you got several trillion dollars, that only entitled you to half of America's resources, and if you got infinite dollars it would only give you 100% of America's resources. It turns out that similar notions have already been studied and the expected value calculated for them on Wikipedia (well, they just assumed that the bankroll was US GDP and didn't look at a quantity theory of money solution specifically, but same diff).

-4Lumifer9y

As formulated, zero -- under the rules you posted you never win anything. Is there an unstated assumption that you can stop the game at any time and exit with your stake?

3tetronian29y

I guess I didn't formulate the rules clearly enough--if the coin lands on tails, you exit with the stake. For example, if you play and the sequence is HEADS -> HEADS -> TAILS, you exit with $4. The game only ends when tails is flipped.

-1Lumifer9y

Also notice that as formulated ("You are given an initial stake of $1") you don't have any of your own money at risk, so... And if the game only ends when TAILS is flipped, there is no way to lose, is there? If the first $1 comes from you, you are basically asking about the "double till you win" strategy. You might be interested in reading about the St.Petersburg paradox.

3jefftk9y

Reading the wikipedia article on the St Petersburg paradox, that's exactly the game tetronian2 has described.

2tetronian29y

Yep. I don't think I was ever aware of the name; someone threw this puzzle at me in a job interview a while ago, so I figured I'd post it here for fun.

2DanielLC9y

The money that's "at stake" is the amount you spend to play the game. Once the game begins, you get 2^(n) dollars, where n is the number of successive heads you flip.

[-]11kilobytes9y30

How many rationalists live in Africa, and especially South Africa? I'm kind of surprised that there is no LW meetup anywhere in Africa, I would have guessed that at least South Africa or Nigeria are sufficiently developed and have sufficiently prevalent internet access to have one. Should somebody who has more conscientiousness than I do (at least for now) start one here in South Africa?

3ChristianKl9y

In general you start meetups in cities and not countries. Do you happen to live Johannesburg or Cape Town? It doesn't need that much conscientiousness. You just need to reserve a table at a restaurant.

211kilobytes9y

Well I guess, to start one does not require that much conscientiousness, but to maintain one as the hero does.

6ChristianKl9y

If you actually get people together there a chance that another person is willing to maintain it.

0ZankerH9y

If you're rational and you're in South Africa, why are you still in South Africa? How much do you value your life over the trivial inconvenience of moving?

511kilobytes9y

I'm a high school graduate, if I had good grades I would study overseas provided that I got a scholarship since during the next two years my parents won't earn much money. However, I have terrible grades (global average score in the international program I did) so that's not an easy option. I have slowly been building my conscientiousness to a point where, instead of learning lots of random things that interest me, I can systematically pursue an academic goal. So there's the possibility of extending a mandatory gap half-year, to a gap year where in the second half of my gap year I take say AP exams.

4Jayson_Virissimo9y

Moving from your home country is rarely a trivial inconvenience. Also, even assuming a high level of instrumental rationality, some preference sets would best be served by remaining in South Africa.

3[anonymous]9y

...oddly strong words...

5Tem429y

The homicide rate is 6.6 times what it is in America (US = 4.7 vs. SA = 31.0). And there are 107 countries with lower homicide rates than the US. However, your specific locale in these countries and specific factors about you and your behaviors are more relevant than the overall homicide rate.

3Lumifer9y

You know that's better than the homicide rate in New Orleans, LA or Newark, NJ -- right? X-/

2Tem429y

Sure, but if you want to play that game, throw Cape Town into the mix :-)

2Lumifer9y

The original question was: Are you going to argue that everyone in New Orleans, Newark, etc. should immediately move out?

0garabik9y

Maybe he meant life expectancy. Anyway, that too is locale specific and depends on your life style and (increasingly with age) on healthcare availability - which could be hampered a lot by moving abroad. Not taking into account increased stress due to unfamiliar environment and (likely) less satisfying job.

3Tem429y

Life expectancy in SA is mostly dragged down by high infant mortality and the incidence of AIDS. Not that those might not be important to you, but they are manageable risks for an adult.

[-][anonymous]9y30

I'm going coldturkey on compulsive porn, music, junk foods, procrastination, negativity, worry, approval and gambling, all of which have been conceptualised as addictions, for at least one year and hopefully life. I've tried this moderation approach fmany times and failed, so this is it.

2skeptical_lurker9y

Why cold turkey on music? Instead, maybe it would be better to find music that does not disrupt your concentration. Also, some people say its better to change one thing at a time.

6entirelyuseless9y

Gwern seems to have some evidence that music is always distracting.

4Tem429y

A study that tests the effects on music on a task involving listening or speaking is not obviously relevant to tasks that do not involve your auditory pathways. Also, [always distracting to the majority] does not equal [always distracting to everyone]. There is limited evidence that listening to music can help some people with ADHD maintain focus (something that I have personally found to be the case in non-academic situations). Reference. My personal experience is that on task in which I am distractible because I am bored or under-engaged, music helps keep my 'squirrel!' circuit from firing.

1entirelyuseless9y

Actually, I think when I said "always distracting" I was thinking about myself. I'm pretty much in front of a computer during my entire waking hours, so always involved with text. I agree that it doesn't have to be distracting for other kinds of activities like manual work. With the ADHD study, I wonder if that might work by the music actually distracting them, but not by as much as other things would distract them without the music. Of course even if this is the case, the study would still show that it is helpful for them.

2knb9y

Good luck!

0MrMind9y

Cold turkey has always worked best form than gradual adjustment. BUT changing too many things at the same time is taxing on short term memory, and casual relapsing sometime meant a downward spiral that ended up disrupting the process. I find it easir to remember to quit one thing at a time, I get less frustration from this approach.

2[anonymous]9y

Posting to thank you because your suggestion has helped me conquer a strong wave of sugar/carb cravings by listening to something.

[-][anonymous]9y30

Is it bad to sleep in a hunched over or crunching or hooked kind of position?

6ChristianKl9y

After you are asleep you likely move soon anyway. That means you likely don't get very far by optimizing sleeping position.

3Cariyaga9y

The fetal position is fine. Avoid sleeping on your belly, but sleeping on the sides and back is fine too. As far as I'm aware, leg positioning is mostly to your tastes aside from that both of them should have the same position; don't have one outstretched and the other tucked against you.

2Manfred9y

I dunno, what does a literature search tell you?

[-][anonymous]9y30

yyay charity

0[anonymous]9y

I may be misremembering, but, I seem to recall Givewell looking directly at education measures.

[-]Fluttershy9y30

I've always been annoyed by how icky traditional sunscreen makes me feel, so I was happy to find out that there's a roll-on sunscreen that works reasonably well. I've used it a couple of times now, and while I wasn't outside for long enough that I would have burned when I used it in either case-- and therefore can't comment on the effectiveness of a single layer of the stuff-- I would say that applying it was much quicker and easier than applying traditional sunscreen. While applying sunscreen isn't the lowest hanging fruit in health interventions out ther... (read more)

[-]Elo9y110

Basic sunscreen is zinc. To get that into an applicable form it is usually put into an oil suspension. As mentioned you don't like the oil. You can also get alcohol based suspension sunscreens that feel a lot nicer; and sunscreen in spray form. The benefit of oil is that it doesn't wash off so easily. But there's no point being stuck with oil based sunscreen if they make you feel that uncomfortable

This link might help: http://www.skinacea.com/sunscreen/physical-vs-chemical-sunscreen.html#.VdunDbKqqko as should https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunscreen

4Alicorn9y

I was told a while ago that Asian sunscreen is different and less greasy and I bought some Japanese sunscreen from the internet. It feels much better than the regular American stuff.

2Lumifer9y

Have you tried spray-on sunscreen?

0D_Malik9y

Sunlight increases risk of melanoma but decreases risk of other, more deadly cancers. If you're going to get, say, 3 times your usual daily sunlight exposure, then sunscreen is probably a good idea, but otherwise it's healthier to go without. I'd guess a good heuristic is to get as much sunlight as your ancestors from 1000 years ago would have gotten.

3Tem429y

I've got your citations.. right here This whole article is worth reading, and has a number of counter-intuitive findings.

0[anonymous]9y

I've seen so many claims about the benefit or lack thereof of sunscreen. Do you have a citation?

0Fluttershy9y

This is something I'd eventually like to look into. Do you know which cancers sunlight protects against? Might sun exposure after one has applied sunscreen provide some protection against these cancers?

[-]NancyLebovitz9y30

I have an impression that conscientiousness feels like an outside force. Instead of "I choose to tidy up/proofread my writing/tip the server", it's more like "the situation requires that I do the right thing".

Does this match other people's experience? Does conscientiousness feel more like an outside force than other behaviors?

2Tem429y

Often, yes, but this is highly dependent on the task -- and sometimes the sub-task. For example, when writing finding the correct word for an idea is motivating, but proofreading for spelling is a chore. I can name a good number of tasks that I do because I am internally motivated, including looking up definitions, washing my hair, organizing my bookshelves, making checklists and flowcharts, grocery shopping, gardening... but just as many (and probably more) that I don't do unless I really feel I need to because it is expected of me. I think that part of this is that unmotivating tasks tend to stick in your mind as always present and demanding, but the things you enjoy doing are all too fleeting. It is also possible that you are unconsciously defining conscientiousness as "things you should do but don't want to", in which case by definition they will require an external force.

0Richard_Kennaway9y

To me these are much the same thing. I am one with the situation. When I clearly see what is necessary, the action follows. At least, that's the ideal, which I don't claim to always achieve.

0PhilGoetz9y

I might not understand what you mean by conscientiousness. The things that most feel like things I must do are going to bed and getting up. Are they conscientiousness?

1NancyLebovitz9y

I'll tentatively define conscientiousness as orderly behavior, especially such behavior which is intended to prevent medium-to-low probability bad consequences. Why do you feel you have to go to bed and get up?

1PhilGoetz9y

What would be an example of disorderly behavior? I think all behavior is ordered. I have to go to bed because otherwise I'll be very tired tomorrow. I have to get up because I have stuff to do. I hate going to bed and I hate getting up.

2VoiceOfRa9y

I'm not tired yet, so I won't go to bed. Just one more web video. etc.

0BrassLion9y

This is exactly how conscientiousness feels to me - not wanting to do something but doing so because it's the Correct Action For This Situation. Generally, this applies to things that don't give me a direct, immediate benefit to do, like cleaning up after myself in a common space.

0PhilGoetz9y

I don't think so... probably less so than other behaviors, in fact.

-1Lumifer9y

In Freudian terms, conscientiousness is very straightforward: in involves putting the lid on your id and doing what the superego tells you.

[-]Lumifer9y30

This might be of interest to LW.

From the abstract:

Intellectual ability may be an endophenotypic marker for bipolar disorder. Within a large birth cohort, we aimed to assess whether childhood IQ (including both verbal IQ (VIQ) and performance IQ (PIQ) subscales) was predictive of lifetime features of bipolar disorder assessed in young adulthood. ... There was a positive association between IQ at age 8 years and lifetime manic features at age 22 – 23 years

9Richard_Kennaway9y

I'm not sure what "lifetime manic features at age 22 – 23 years" means. Lifetime, or between ages 22 and 23? But the numbers: I shall be generous and take the upper end of their range for the correlation, and round it up to c = 0.2. The shared variance is c^2 = 0.04. That is childhood IQ "explains" (in the technical sense of that word) 4% of the variance of "lifetime manic features at age 22 – 23 years". For the following calculations I assume, for no reason other than mathematical simplicity, that we are dealing with a bivariate normal distribution. However, I doubt the overall message would be very different for whatever the real distribution is. The mutual information between the variables, is log2( 1/sqrt(1-c^2) ) = 0.0294 bits. What can you do with 30 millibits? You might try to use IQ at age 8 to predict "lifetime manic features at age 22 – 23 years". How much will knowing the former narrow your estimate of the latter? The ratio (standard deviation conditional on that information)/(unconditional standard deviation) is sqrt(1-c^2) = 0.980. That is, the spread is 2% smaller. Suppose you try to predict from IQ at age 8, whether their "manic features" will be above or below the average? By random guessing you will be right 50% of the time. By using that information, you will be right (1/π)acos(−c) of the time = 56%. Perhaps, if the IQ is really high, the "manic features" will be more significantly above the average? In principle, yes, but in practice, not enough to matter. The probability that an individual has an IQ high enough to be 95% sure that they will be above average for "manic features" is 7.5 x 10^-14. Of course, the bivariate normal approximation cannot be observably accurate so far out, but I think it gives an indication of the scale of the matter. The mathematics underlying the calculations can be found here. The figures at the end include a scatterplot of what c=0.2 looks like. That was the lowest correlation for which I thought it worth whi

7faul_sname9y

I'm not sure, not having read the paper, but I would expect that "Lifetime manic features at age 22-23 years" means "number of manic features experienced in the time prior to 22-23 years of age" (i.e. we measured IQ of a bunch of 8-year-olds 15 years ago, and those people are now in the range of 22-23 years of age, and we ask how many manic episodes they've had in that time).

1Richard_Kennaway9y

Ah, that makes sense.

[-][anonymous]9y30

I remember seeing a paper about a woman (still alive) with basically absent frontal lobe, yet only slight mental retardation and no serious problems, a month or two ago, but can't find it now. Does anybody have a link?

[-][anonymous]9y20

The description on Wikipedia of reactions to brief reactive psychosis is confusing and interesting. Can anyone who's experienced it share their experiences?

[-][anonymous]9y20

Slouching is unbecoming and say say it increases back pain. I have chronic lower back pain. When I feel like slouching or hunching, because I'm too tired to sit up straight, what are some alternatives where lying down is inappropriate?

4Tem429y

Practice a lot when you are not too tired; exercising those muscles and building a habit of standing/sitting up straight will slowly increase your ability to do so more consistently. I am much better able to maintain good posture comfortably and for longer periods of times when standing, and setting up my home computer with a standing desk has improved my posture and reduced my back pain. I have also heard it recommended to have a mirror in a place where you will see yourself slumping; it will motivate you to sit/stand up when you see yourself. This has not been very practical for me, but may work for others.

0ChristianKl9y

I think that's largely outdated thought. Frequently taught and as a result global back pain rises rather then lowers. You get back pain when you freeze your body and prevent it from moving. If you get an impulse to slouch inside your body follow it and make the movement consciously. That means your back goes back while the shoulders go up and in front. If you shoulders go down while they are going in front you will likely tense up. Conscious breathing can also be very valuable as a tool to stay in touch with your body.

[-]Houshalter9y20

I'm very confused about something related to the Halting Problem. I discussed this on the IRC with some people, but I couldn't get across what I meant very well. So I wrote up something a bit longer and a bit more formal.

The gist of it is, the halting problem lets us prove that, for a specific counter example, there can not exist any proof that it halts or not. A proof that it does or does not halt, causes a paradox.

But if it's true that there doesn't exist a proof that it halts, then it will run forever searching for one. Therefore I've proved that the pr... (read more)

5TezlaKoil9y

Fortunately, H will never find your argument because it is not a correct proof. You rely on hidden assumptions of the following form (given informally and symbolically): If φ is provable, then φ holds. Provable(#φ) → φ where #φ denotes the Gödel number of the proposition φ. Statements of these form are generally not provable. This phenomenon is known as Löb's theorem - featured in Main back in 2008. You use these invalid assumptions to eliminate the first two options from Either H returns true, or false, or loops forever. For example, if H returns true, then you can infer that "FF halts on input FF" is provable, but that does not contradict FF does not halt on input FF.

0Houshalter9y

I'm very confused. Of course if φ is provable then it's true. That's the whole point of using proofs.

2VoiceOfRa9y

But that statement isn't provable.

0Houshalter9y

Then just assume it as an axiom.

2VoiceOfRa9y

Then the paradox you were describing fires and the system becomes inconsistent.

0RolfAndreassen9y

Yes, but it may be true without being provable.

0David_Bolin9y

It is not that these statements are "not generally valid", but that they are not included within the axiom system used by H. If we attempt to include them, there will be a new statement of the same kind which is not included. Obviously such statements will be true if H's axiom system is true, and in that sense they are always valid.

2TezlaKoil9y

The intended meaning of valid in my post is "valid step in a proof" in the given formal system. I reworded the offending section. Yes, and one also has to be careful with the use of the word "true". There are models in which the axioms are true, but which contain counterexamples to Provable(#φ) → φ.

5Richard_Kennaway9y

Gödel's incompleteness bites here. What theory is your halt-testing machine H searching for a proof within? H can only find termination proofs that are derivable from the axioms of that theory. What theory is your proof that H(FL,FL) does not terminate expressed in? I believe it will necessarily not be the same one.

3philh9y

To expand on this - check_if_proof_proves_x_halts will be working using a certain set of axioms and derivation rules. When you prove that H(FL, FL) doesn't halt, you also use the assumption that check_if_proof_proves_x_halts will definitely return the true answer, which is an assumption that check_if_proof_proves_x_halts doesn't have as an axiom and can't prove. (And the same for ..._x_doesnt_halt.) So H can't use your proof. When it calls check_if_proof_proves_x_doesnt_halt on your proof, that function returns "false" because your proof uses an axiom that that function doesn't believe in. I'm not super confident about this stuff, but I think this is broadly what's going on.

3Pfft9y

I guess the answer to this point is that when constructing the proof that H(FL, FL) loops forever, we assume that H can't be wrong. So we are working in an extended set of axioms: the program enumerates proofs given some set of axioms T, and the English-language proof in the tumblr post uses the axiom system T + "T is never wrong" (we can write this T+CON(T) for short). Now, this is not necessarily a problem. If you have reason to think that T is consistent, then most likely T+CON(T) is consistent also (except in weird cases). So if we had some reason to adopt T in the first place, then working in T+CON(T) is also a reasonable choice. (Note that this is different from working in a system which can prove its own consistency, which would be bad. The difference is that in T+CON(T), there is no way to prove that proofs using the additional "T is never wrong" axiom are correct). More generally, the lesson of Gödel's incompleteness theorem is that it does not make sense to say that something is "provable" without specifying which proof system you are using, because there are no natural choice for an "ideal" system, they are all flawed. The tumblr post seems paradoxical because it implicitly shifts between two different axiom sets. In particular, it says but a correct statement is, we can't prove it either using the same set of axioms as H used. We have to use some addtional ones.

2Viliam9y

EDIT: Okay, now I read your article, and I see that what I wrote here is irrelevant. Leaving it here anyway, maybe someone else will like it. I admit I didn't read your linked article thoroughly, but I will try to explain the basic theory and terminology. In computer science, when we are talking about a computation that for any input always ends in a finite time and provides an answer, we call such computation algorithm, and the mathematical function computed by this algorithm is called "total recursive function" (or "computable function"). When we are talking about a computation that could potentially run forever, and such case of running forever is treated as an implied special value, we call such computation program, and the mathematical function computed by this algorithm is called "partial recursive function" -- a mathematical function with an undefined value for inputs where the program runs forever. (Algorithms are a subset of programs, and total recursive functions are a subset of partial recursive functions.) Specifically, if we care about computations returning "yes" or "no", an algorithm corresponds to a total recursive function from X to { "yes", "no" }, where "X" is the input domain: strings, numbers, whatever your computation accepts as a valid input. If we care about computations that potentially run forever, such program corresponds to a partial recursive function from X to { "yes" }, where not returning value is an implied "no". (You could have other, equivalent definitions, but that would only make things less elegant mathematically.) When debating things such as Halting Problem we have to pay extra big attention to the proper distinction between algorithms and programs, or respectively between total and partial recursive functions. When speaking about programs / partial recursive functions we have to pay attention to which answer is the implied one in case of the infinite computation (is "yes" explicit and "no" implied, or is "no" explicit an

1David_Bolin9y

Also, there is definitely some objective fact where you cannot get the right answer: "After thinking about it, you will decide that this statement is false, and you will not change your mind." If you conclude that this is false, then the statement will be true. No paradox, but you are wrong. If you conclude that this is true, then the statement will be false. No paradox, but you are wrong. If you make no conclusion, or continuously change your mind, then the statement will be false. No paradox, but the statement is undecidable to you.

0RolfAndreassen9y

No; provable and true are not the same thing. It may be the case that the program halts, but it is nevertheless impossible to prove that it halts except by "run it and see", which doesn't count.

0OrphanWilde9y

Okay, an attempt to clear up the Halting Problem: The proofs in question say it is impossible to algorithmically arrive at a Yes-or-No answer to the generalized question, "Does algorithm X have non-trivial property Y for input Z?", for any specific property Y. Poorly written proof at the bottom. It critically doesn't say that you can't have a Yes-or-No-or-Undecidable answer to that question. Introduce an uncertainty factor and the issue falls apart. Thus, you -can- write a Halting Oracle, so long as you're satisfied that sometimes it won't be able to say. For purposes of AI Friendliness - which is certainly a non-trivial property - Rice's Theorem says we can't algorithmically prove that an AI - which is an algorithm - is, or is not, friendly, once we manage to define what friendly even is. We can theoretically, however, prove that AI is friendly, not friendly, or undecidably friendly. For our purposes, "not friendly" and "undecidably friendly" are probably equivalent. For purposes of everything else, nothing at all says that it's impossible to prove whether or not a specific program will halt given a specific input. "But what about the program in Turing's diagonalization proof? Does it halt or not?" The input in that case (the Halting Oracle) can't exist in the first place, as the proof demonstrates. "But what about this neat program I wrote that halts 25% of the time?" What did you use to generate a random number? Not being aware of your hidden inputs isn't the same as not having an input. For a given set of inputs, your algorithm halts 100%, or 0%, of the time. A Halting Oracle that only says "Yes", "No", or "Provably Undecidable" hasn't (to my knowledge and research) been proven to be impossible - and a "Yes", "No", or "Maybe" Halting Oracle is quite trivial, as you can throw all cases you can't figure out an algorithm for into the "Maybe" pile. The proofs do not demonstrate that there are any algorithms which are nondeterministically halting for a given inp

0Houshalter9y

I think I just proved this. If you can prove something is undecidable, it creates a paradox. If you could prove any algorithm will halt or not halt, then you can easily make a halt-detection machine that works in all cases. There are some programs which do not halt, but which it's impossible to prove they will not halt. But not for all cases, see above.

2entirelyuseless9y

"If you could prove any algorithm will halt or not halt, then you can easily make a halt-detection machine that works in all cases." That is only true if your proofs work from the same one set of axioms. But in reality you can choose different sets of axioms as needed. So it may be possible to prove of each and every algorithm that it will halt or not, but you cannot make a halt-detection machine that works in all cases, because your proofs use different sets of axioms.

0OrphanWilde9y

What makes you say this?

0Houshalter9y

If I can prove that the problem is undecidable, so can H. H searches through all possible proofs, which must contain that proof too. If a problem is undecidable, that means no proof exists either way. Otherwise it would be decidable, in principle. If no proof exists either way, and H searches through all possible proofs, then it will not halt. It will keep searching forever. Therefore, if you can prove that it is undecidable, then you can prove that H will not halt. And H can prove this too. So H has proved that it will not halt, and returns false. This causes a paradox.

1VoiceOfRa9y

Technically you can't. You can prove it's undecidable as long as your axiom system is consistent. However, it's impossible for a consistent axiom system to prove its own consistency.

0Houshalter9y

Perhaps. If so just make it an axiom. It's silly to use a system that doesn't believe it's consistent.

1VoiceOfRa9y

The problem is that no consistent system can prove it's own consistency. (Of course, an inconsistent system can prove all statements, including both its own consistency and inconsistency.) Consider a system S. You can add the axiom "S is consistent", but now you have a new system that still doesn't know that it's consistent. On the other hand, one can add the axiom "S is consistent even with this axiom added". Your new system is now inconsistent for more or less the reason you used in formulating the above paradox.

0Houshalter9y

I'm not sure that my paradox even requires the proof system to prove it's own consistency. But regardless, even if removing that does resolve the paradox, it's not a very satisfying resolution. Of course a crippled logic can't prove interesting things about Turing machines.

4TezlaKoil9y

Your argument requires the proof system to prove it's own consistency. As we discussed before, your argument relies on the assumption that the implication If "φ is provable" then "φ" Provable(#φ) → φ is available for all φ. If this were the case, your theory would prove itself consistent. Why? Because you could take the contrapositive If "φ is false" then "φ is not provable" ¬φ → ¬Provable(#φ) and substitute "0=1" for φ. This gives you if "0≠1" then "0=1 is not provable" ¬0=1 → ¬Provable(#(0=1)) The premise "0≠1" holds. Therefore, the consequence "0=1 is not provable" also holds. At this point your theory is asserting its own consistency: everything is provable in an inconsistent theory. You might enjoy reading about the Turing Machine proof of Gödel's first incompleteness theorem, which is closely related to your paradox.

0Houshalter9y

0 is not equal to 1, so it's not inconsistent. I don't understand what you are trying to say with that. It would be really silly for a system not to believe it was consistent. And, if it were true, it would also apply to the mathematicians making such statements. The mathematicians are assuming it's true, and it is obviously true, so I don't see why a proof system should not have it. In any case I don't see how my system requires proving "x is provable implies x". It searches through proofs in a totally unspecified proof system. It then proves the standard halting problem on a copy of itself, and shows that it will never halt. It then returns false, causing a paradox. Are saying that it's impossible to prove the halting problem? So if something is not provable in a theory, that proves it is consistent? I did read your link but I don't understand most of it.

3entirelyuseless9y

TezlaKoil doesn't include his whole argument here. Basically he is using Gödel's second incompleteness theorem. The theorem proves that a theory sufficiently complex to express arithmetic cannot have a proof of the statement corresponding to "this theory is consistent" without being an inconsistent theory. This doesn't show that arithmetic has a proof of "this theory is inconsistent" either. If it does, then arithmetic is in fact inconsistent. Since we think arithmetic is consistent, we think that the arithmetical formula corresponding to "arithmetic is consistent" is true but undecidable from within arithmetic. It also doesn't imply that the theory composed of arithmetic plus "arithmetic is consistent" is inconsistent, because this theory is more complicated than arithmetic and does not assert its own consistency. Of course we think the more complicated theory is true and consistent as well, but adding that would just lead to yet another theory, and so on. If you try to use mathematical induction to form a theory that includes all such statements, that theory will have an infinite number of postulates and will not be able to be analyzed by a Turing machine.

0VoiceOfRa9y

This part is not quite accurate. Actually, the commonly used theories of arithmetic (and sets) have infinitely many axioms. The actually problem with your approach above is that the theory still won't be able to prove its own consistency since any proof can only use finitely many of the axioms. One can of course add an additional axiom and keep going using transfinite induction, but now one will finally run into a theory that a Turing machine can't analyze.

0entirelyuseless9y

I would agree that it's not very satisfying, in the sense that there is no satisfying resolution to the paradox of the liar. But logic is actually crippled in reality in that particular way. You cannot assume either that "this is false" is true, or that it is false, without arriving at a contradiction.

0VoiceOfRa9y

If the system is inconsistent, your program will halt on all inputs with output dependent on whether it happens to find a proof of "this program halts" or "this program doesn't halt" first. Well, mathematicians have been proving interesting things about Turing machines for the past century despite these limitations.

0Epictetus9y

From the link: H proves that it can't decide the question one way or the other. The assumption that H can only return TRUE or FALSE is flawed: if a proof exists that something is undecidable, then H would need to be able to return "undecidable". This example seems to verify the halting problem: you came up with an algorithm that tries to decide whether a program halts, and then came up with an input for which the algorithm can't decide one way or another.

0Houshalter9y

H is literally defined as either returning true or false. Or it can run forever, if it can't find a proof. It's possible to create another program which does return "UNDECIDABLE" sometimes. But that is not H. The point is that the behavior of H is paradoxical. We can prove that it can't return true or false without contradiction. But if that's provable, that also creates a contradiction, since H can prove it to. Not only can H not decide, but we can't decide whether or not H will decide. Because we aren't outside the system, and the same logic applies to us.

0Epictetus9y

I did overlook the definition of H. Apologies. More precisely, H will encounter a proof that the question is undecidable. It then runs into the following two if statements: if check_if_proof_proves_x_halts(proof, x, i) if check_if_proof_proves_x_doesnt_halt(proof, x, i) Both return "false", so H moves into the next iteration of the while loop. H will generate undecidability proofs, but as implemented it will merely discard them and continue searching. Since such proofs do not cause H to halt, and since there are no proofs that the program halts or does not, then H will run forever.

0Houshalter9y

If it is undecidable, then that means no proof exists (that H will or will not halt.) If no proof exists, then H will loop forever searching for one. Therefore undecidability implies H will run forever. You've just proved this. Therefore a proof exists that H will run forever (that one), and H will eventually find it. Paradox...

1entirelyuseless9y

As people have been saying, if H can make this argument it is inconsistent and does not work properly (i.e. it does not return True or False in the correct situations.)

0tut9y

It does not give a counterexample. It specifies a way that you could find a counterexample if there was a halting oracle. But if there was a halting oracle there wouldn't be any counterexample. So what is found is a contradiction.

2Houshalter9y

The standard halting problem proof doesn't specify what the halting oracle is. It just shows how to construct a counter example for any halting oracle. I actually specified a halting oracle; a program which searches through all possible proofs until it finds a proof that it halts or not. Then running it on the counterexample causes it to run forever. Therefore I've proved that it will run forever. The program will eventually find that proof, return false, and halt.

0tut9y

{All possible proofs} has infinitely many elements longer than zero, so your algorithm will (might) run forever on some programs that do halt, so it is not a halting oracle.

1Houshalter9y

If a program halts, it's easy to prove that it halts. Just run it until it halts. The problem is proving that some programs won't halt.

0David_Bolin9y

There is no program such that no Turing machine can determine whether it halts or not. But no Turing machine can take every program and determine whether or not each of them halts. It isn't actually clear to me that you a Turing machine in the relevant sense, since there is no context where you would run forever without halting, and there are contexts where you will output inconsistent results. But even if you are, it simply means that there is something undecidable to you -- the examples you find will be about other Turing machines, not yourself. There is nothing impossible about that, because you don't and can't understand your own source code sufficiently well.

0Houshalter9y

The program I specified is impossible to prove will halt. It doesn't matter what Turing machine, or human, is searching for the proof. It can never be found. It can't exist. The paradox is that I can prove that. Which means I can prove the program searching for proofs will never halt. Which I just proved is impossible.

0David_Bolin9y

I looked at your specified program. The case there is basically the same as the situation I mentioned, where I say "you are going to think this is false." There is no way for you to have a true opinion about that, but there is a way for other people to have a true opinion about it. In the same way, you haven't proved that no one and nothing can prove that the program will not halt. You simply prove that there is no proof in the particular language and axioms used by your program. When you proved that program will not halt, you were using a different language and axioms. In the same way, you can't get that statement right ("you will think this is false") because it behaves as a Filthy Liar relative to you. But it doesn't behave that way relative to other people, so they can get it right.

-1Dagon9y

No, it's the halting problem all the way down. Not remotely! There's no proof that it halts, and there's no