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Open thread, September 15-21, 2014
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I'm posting here on behalf of Brent Dill, known here and elsewhere as ialdabaoth-- you may have enjoyed some of his posts. If you read the comments at SSC, you'll recognize him as a contributor of rare honesty and insight. If you'd had the chance to talk with him as much as I have, you'd know he's an awesome guy: clever, resourceful, incisive and deeply moral. Many of you see him as admirable, most as relatable, some as a friend, and more, I hope, as a member of our community.

He could use some help.

Until last Thursday he was gainfully employed as a web developer for a community college in Idaho. Recently, he voluntarily mentioned to his boss that he was concerned that seasonal affective disorder was harming his job performance, who mentioned it to his boss, who suggested in all good faith that Brent should talk to HR to see if they might help through their Employee Assistance Program. In Brent's words: "Instead, HR asked me a lot of pointed questions about when my performance could turn around and whether I wanted to work there, demanded that I come up with all the solutions (after I admitted that I was already out of brainpower and feeling intimidated), and then directed me t... (read more)

Official update: HR "explored every possible option" but "ultimately we have to move forward with your termination process" after "making certain there was unanimous consensus".

Apparently several people in my now ex-office are upset about this.

Is Austin on the list? I work at a not-evil tech startup called SchoolAdmin that does school admissions software for a mix of public/private/charter schools. We're not hiring devs right now, but that might possibly change since we have a product manager coming in October. The company is REALLY not evil; we've had three different people come down with mental or physical health issues, and the president's mantra has been 'your job is to get better' in every case.

I could possibly also offer a place to crash, I've got a futon, a study it could be moved to, and already have cats.

2btrettel
I would recommend Austin as well. There are loads of developer jobs here, though I don't know any particular place that is hiring right now. We have an active, close-knit rationalist community that I think is pretty fantastic. Worth consideration.
1juliawise
I was going to make a plug for Boston, but with SAD, someplace with a sunny winter like Austin sounds like it might be nicer.
[-]Decius120

That narrative is unambiguously a case of illegal discrimination. Idaho law Defines:

"Disability" means a physical or mental condition of a person, whether congenital or acquired, which constitutes a substantial limitation to that person and is demonstrable by medically accepted clinical or laboratory diagnostic techniques. A person with a disability is one who (a) has such a disability, or (b) has a record of such a disability, or (c) is regarded as having such a disability;

and

It shall be a prohibited act to discriminate against a person because of, or on the basis of, disability in [employment]... provided that the prohibition against discrimination because of disability shall not apply if the particular disability, even with a reasonable accommodation, prevents the performance of the work required in that job.

I am also very confused as to how actual HR drones in an actual HR department wouldn't be familiar with the law and able to create a suitable enough pretext for termination.

I already mentioned the A.D.A. to Ialdabaoth, but fighting a discrimination case probably takes more money than he's looking to raise to move, as well as being psychologically exhausting.

5Decius
Either of those reasons is probably enough to convince a rational person. The spirit of Immanuel Genovese still sits on my shoulder screaming "Passive complicity!" at /me/ every time I contemplate accepting an outcome in which it is normal that this kind of treatment happens.

Me too.

The problem is... this is a complex and delicate situation, as all real-life situations are.

There are co-workers who have gone the extra mile to help me and protect me. They didn't do everything they could, because they have families, and they know that if they rock the boat too hard it will be them, not HR, that get thrown overboard.

They aren't rationalists themselves (although I was slowly working on one of them), but they are caring and intelligent people who are themselves struggling to find meaning and stability in a harsh world.

If I could find a way to laser-lance out the demons of stupidity from my workplace, I would do so in an instant. If I could do so in a way that could add net funds to my own cause, I would already be doing so.

But as it is, I know exactly who would suffer for it.

(That doesn't mean that I have committed to a decision yet; I am still weighing necessary evils.)

I hope this is not patronizing advice but rather useful info. To be clear, I am not pressuring you to do anything, I know there are many reasons not to pursue discrimination claims, but I wanted to make sure you are aware of all your options.

The Equal Employment Opportunity Commission is a possibly less costly and less adversarial way of pursuing a discrimination claim. They will investigate independently and try to arrange a settlement if they find discrimination. If settlement is impossible, they may even sue on your behalf. They have won a lot of ADA-related claims. I'm pretty sure they will consult with you for free, so the only initial costs are time and emotional energy.

3Decius
I'm letting you know about what my shoulder angel/demon is shouting, because if I follow his advice I am not optimizing for giving you good advice.
-4John_Maxwell
You can make the empty threat that you will sue if you're not re-hired. Heck, you could even register a law-firm-y domain and copy some law firm's website and configure google apps for email and send them some intimidating email "from your lawyer". You don't have anything to lose at this point do you?
1CronoDAS
You might be able to get a lawyer to work on a contingency basis - they only get paid if you win.
4KnaveOfAllTrades
Woah, well done everyone who donated so far. I made a small contribution. Moreover, to encourage others and increase the chance the pooled donations reach critical mass, I will top up my donation to 1% of whatever's been donated by others, up to at least $100 total from me. I encourage others to pledge similarly if you're also worrying about making a small donation or worrying the campaign won't reach critical mass.
7gjm
If 102 people all pledge to donate 1% of everyone else's total, the consequences could be interesting. (Of course it's vanishingly unlikely. But pedantic donors might choose to word their pledges carefully.)
3Shmi
I also hope someone can help out with writing a better resume, this one is seriously subpar. A single page of achievements based on http://www.kalzumeus.com/2011/10/28/dont-call-yourself-a-programmer/ might be a start: "describe yourself by what you have accomplished for previously employers vis-a-vis increasing revenues or reducing costs".
1ITakeBets
Yes, thanks, this has been discussed elsewhere. (That said I'll repeat the request to avoid disrespect or patronizingly phrased advice.)

I don't have any sensible way of learning about current affairs. I don't consume broadcast or print news. Most news stories reach me through social media, blogs, word of mouth or personal research, and I will independently follow up on the ones I think are worthy of interest. This is nowhere near optimal. It means I will probably find out about innovations in robotic bees before I find out about natural disasters or significant events in world politics.

Regular news outlets seem to be messy, noisy attention traps, rather than the austere factual repositories I wish them to be. Quite importantly, there seems to be a lot of stuff in the news that isn't actually news. I'm pretty sure smart people with different values will converge on what a lot of this stuff is.

Has this problem been solved already? I'm willing to put in time/effort/money for minimalist, noise-free, sensibly-prioritised news digest that I care about.

ETA: Although I haven't replied to all these responses individually, they seem very useful and I will be following them up. Thanks!

[-]gjm240

What sort of current events do you want to find out about how quickly, and why?

You should consider, if you haven't already, the possibility that the value of learning about such things quickly is almost always almost exactly zero. Suppose e.g. there's an enormous earthquake half-way around the world from you, and many thousands of people die. That's a big deal, it's very important -- but what immediate difference should it make to your life?

One possibility: you might send a lot of money to a charity working in the affected place. But it seems unlikely to me that there's much real difference in practice between doing so on the day of the disaster and doing it a week later.

Another possibility (albeit a kinda callous one): it may come up in conversation and you may not want to sound bad. But I bet that in practice "social media, blogs, word of mouth or personal research" do just fine at keeping you sufficiently up to date that you don't sound stupid or ignorant. In any case, what you need to know about in order to sound up to date is probably roughly what you get from existing news sources, rather than from a hypothetical new source of genuinely important, sensibly prioritized news.

5sixes_and_sevens
I appreciate the distinction you make between urgent and non-urgent news. Finding out about things quickly isn't necessarily my priority. In fact, one of my problems with "regular" news outlets is that they have poor sense of time sensitivity, and promote news that's stopped being useful. The value of knowing about Icelandic volcanoes grounding all northern European air traffic is actually very useful to me when it's just happened, but in a week's time I may as well read about it on Wikipedia. I'm more concerned about finding out about things at all. My ad hoc news accretion drops the ball more often than I'd like. My ideal wish-upon-a-star would be a daily digest saying "here are a list of things that have happened today in two sentences or less". I can then decide whether to follow it up or not. (I have a secondary motive of wanting to associate events in my memory to improve the granularity of my recall. I know, for example, that Eyjafjallajökull erupting was concurrent with the run-up to the 2010 UK General Election, which helps me position it in time quite accurately, as well as position personal events that I remember happening around the same time.)
[-]Toggle110

Hilariously, a good option for you may be an actual newspaper. Made out of paper.

It comes once a day, it summarizes a few dozen major events in a reasonably succinct way, and many of them try to minimize reporting bias. You could consider specific papers based on size and editorial style (most offer free or cheap trials), and then sign up for a short subscription to see how you like it.

And the greatest advantage is that it has no hyperlinks to click. Thus, you only spend limited time reading it.

3gjm
But it has a lot of the same stuff you'd have found beyond the hyperlinks -- right underneath the headlines, without even needing to click. I'm not sure that's a win.
1jefftk
No additional clicks from there, though, so still bounded. You can read through all the interesting stories in a paper (I used to do this) and then you're done; with the web there's no obvious stopping place.
7Azathoth123
That hasn't been my experience with newspapers.
2Vulture
I get The New York Times, and I find it pretty good in those regards (depending on your definition of "reasonably succinct"). And as a bonus, its science reporting is not hair-rippingly terrible at all generally.
1lmm
I find daily takes up too much time, and the reporting doesn't have enough distance. So I'd recommend reading a Sunday paper instead - or, better still, a weekly or monthly magazine. If you're in the UK then Prospect is fantastic; I also read TIME (I've heard allegations that the US edition is dumbed down, so try to get a European or Asian edition).
2Azathoth123
Interesting, so the European edition of TIME is not a complete insult to their readers' intelligence?
6gjm
Do you have some examples in mind of things you never found out about but would have been better off for knowing? (Of course if you literally never found out about something you can't know. But I'm guessing there are things you did find out about but not until much too late.)
6sixes_and_sevens
A couple of semi-recent examples would be the referendum on Scottish independence and the Islamic State business in the middle east. I obviously found out about them, but it felt like I found out about them a lot later than I would have liked. It's not so much that these have an immediate impact on my life (Scottish independence does, but it's not like I'd be able to remain ignorant by the time it's resolved), but they're massive news events that I basically didn't notice until everyone else was talking about them. This suggests I'm probably missing other events that people aren't talking about, and that makes me want to up my game.
5Azathoth123
What about the recent Swedish election results? Incidentally, it was disturbingly hard to find an article about them that didn't put a misleading spin on the results.
[-]zedzed200

I can't find it, but I once read an article from a guy a trust about how he just stopped following news, assuming that if anything sufficiently important happened, he'd find out about it anyway. His quality of life immediately rose. Having followed this approach for a few years now, I would suggest consuming zero news (is minimalist, completely devoid of noise, and exceptionally well-organized).

"Remember, if it’s in the news don’t worry about it. The very definition of news is “something that almost never happens.” When something is so common that it’s no longer news — car crashes, domestic violence — that’s when you should worry about it." - Bruce Schneier

2Salemicus
But rare events matter too. For example, the big news in July 1914 was the outbreak of a massive war involving all the major European powers. I suggest that someone taking Bruce Schneier's advice ("World wars are rare events, so you don't need to worry if one breaks out") is substantially misguided.
1A1987dM
This is a very good heuristic but it does have a few exceptions, e.g. astronomical, meteorological, and similar events. Lots of people assume that if the news are talking about the supermoon then it must be an exceedingly unusual event.
2sediment
I remember Nassim Nicholas Taleb claiming exactly this in an interview a few years ago. He let his friends function as a kind of news filter, assuming that they would probably mention anything sufficiently important for him to know.
1[anonymous]
I think this is it: http://joel.is/the-power-of-ignoring-mainstream-news/
[-]pcm160

Wikipedia's current events portal is relatively minimalist and low-noise. It's not prioritized very impressively.

7Jayson_Virissimo
The Economist has a Politics This Week and Business This Week section. Both are only a page each and are international in scope.
7polymathwannabe
Get an RSS reader and read only the headlines. That way you can process hundreds of news in a few minutes and only open the ones that seem seriously important.
5Viliam_Bur
A trivial inconvenience which could make a huge difference -- if there was a software which would put all those headlines in plain-text format, to reduce the temptation of clicking. (There is still google if something is irresistible.)
6Metus
In a similar vein: How do I find out what to read and what to learn more generally? I don't care about reading the latest Piketty but I want to read the best summary and interpretation of a philosopher from the last 10 years instead of the original from 500 years ago. Same goes for Physics text books and so on, and literature.
6Shmi
I scan google news headlines, top stories section and click on the items of interest. Yes, there are still attention grabs and non-news, but this is usually fairly clear from the article names.
4ChristianKl
I don't think it's a problem. Social media is good enough to tell you about significant events in world politics. When a new topic bobbles up were I want to have an informed opinion I found vox.com or the Wikipedia summary to be good.
3iarwain1
My foreign news comes almost exclusively from the CFR Daily News Brief, which sounds like exactly what you're looking for. The daily briefs also link to their Backgrounders, which are excellent and relatively short summaries of the backgrounds to many hot-topic issues.
3sixes_and_sevens
Did you mean to link here?
1iarwain1
Yes, thanks. Apparently didn't copy/paste correctly. Fixed now.
1sixes_and_sevens
It was quite an entertaining copy/paste error.
3iarwain1
:). Was the CFR stuff what you were looking for?
1sixes_and_sevens
Oh, yes, thanks. I'm making a collection of news-digesty bookmarks, and it's in there.
2A1987dM
Meh. Sufficiently big natural disasters or political events find a way onto my Facebook feed anyway. Once in a while when I'm bored I check out the Android app of my country's wire service (I think the American equivalent would be the Associated Press) and/or the box in the top right of the English Wikipedia's home page. But it's a rare week that I spend more than half an hour seeking out news deliberately.
3Azathoth123
I'm not sure how much one should trust the news filter in one's country's wire service.
1A1987dM
Trust it for what purposes?
0Azathoth123
Trust to not be politically biased.
0A1987dM
Given the way I use it I don't care whether they're politically unbiased, just whether they're less addictive than blogs and Facebook.
2Azathoth123
So another voter defects in the rational ignorance collective action problem.
-1A1987dM
Why would the knowledge of who won the World Cup or how many kids Brad Pitt and Angelina Jolie have any relevance at all when deciding whom to vote for? (I jest, but LeechBlock is going to get me the hell out of here in a minute and a half so I don't have time to write a more serious reply.)
1Emile
In what way? Do you wish you spent more time following current affairs? I don't follow them, but don't see any problem with it - if anything, I occasionally have to resist the urge of looking up what's going on in the world, which I put in the same mental bucket as the urge to look at the top entries of /r/funny. I don't think in ten years time having read one more news item on the Gaza Strip will change my life more than having seen one more picture of a cat stuck in a bowl. (I do however sometimes go more into a binge of "reading up on something and trying to understand it", but I rely more on Wikipedia than on news for that; "breaking news" tends to repeat the same points over and over again, and doesn't put much focus on the big picture) I used to read the wikipedia current events page, which I found a nice summary of what's going on without going into too many details.
3sixes_and_sevens
I trust my brain to collect facts and raise them to my attention when they're important. "Current affairs" describes a class of fact that I don't think is being adequately collected. The Wikipedia current events page is a very good example of what I'm looking for.
-2Azathoth123
I get my news from instapundit.
8Prismattic
I don't wish to get into a mindkilling debate about this here, but for sixes-and-sevens benefit, I'll note that Instapundit is a highly ideological libertarian (alternatively, in the view of many progressives, a partisan Republican pretending to be a libertarian). If you use him as a news source, you should balance with a progressive source. ETA: This advice holds even if you are skipping narrowly political articles and reading about crises/disasters, etc., since ideology informs what kinds of crises people consider salient.
4Lumifer
This looks like the classic grey fallacy.

Looks like, but isn't. The goal isn't that you take one viewpoint and take another viewpoint and find "something in the middle"; the point is that having multiple independent viewpoints makes it easier to spot mistakes in each.

It feels natural for us to think critically when our preconceptions are contradicted and to accept information uncritically when our preconceptions are supported. If you want to improve the odds that you're reading critical thought about any given topic, you need sources with a wide range of different preconceptions.

having multiple independent viewpoints

I agree and wouldn't have objected if Prismattic advised to read multiple sources from a variety of viewpoints. As it is, he just said "you need to read progressives as well" and that's a different claim.

3Prismattic
I'm not arguing that the views should be averaged, but that the combined sample of news stories will be less likely to suffer from politically motivated selection bias. A libertarian/fusionist source is likely to devote more coverage to, say, stories of government corruption and less to stories of corporate wage theft or environmental degradation; a progressive source to do the opposite. All of those stories might be important (in general or to sixes-and-sevens in particular), so the combined news feed is in that sense better.
6Lumifer
So why did you recommend progressives and not, say, news coming from the Roman Catholic Church, from marxists, from PETA, from infowars, from Al-Jazira, etc. etc.?
1Prismattic
Well, taking those specific examples as non-rhetorical: PETA, the Catholic Church, and Infowars are various kinds of insane in ways that extend beyond ordinary political mindkilling, so I'd be unlikely to recommend them. Al-Jazeera English is actually pretty good as a news source, but its website is an adjunct of being a broadcast news source, which is less helpful from a time-investment perspective. I predict that a center-left news source will provide coverage on a broader range of issues than a far-left news source, but your mileage may vary. The center-left source is also most likely to compensate specifically for the coverage holes in a center-right source. That still isn't averaging their factual claims.
2Lumifer
You're not averaging factual claims, you're averaging exposure to viewpoints.
3Prismattic
I would argue that this summing, not averaging exposure. There's a difference between saying "You should read both GreenNetNews and BlueCast" and saying "To save time, read GreenNetNews on odd-numbered days and BlueCast on even-numbered days".
2Lumifer
I think it's averaging because your capacity to absorb news/viewpoints is limited.
1Ixiel
Are you using "progressive" to mean left-leaning, or in the usual way? Just for clarity; if you meant the latter disregard.
5Richard_Kennaway
I thought "left-leaning" was the usual way? What else, in the political sphere, does "progressive" mean?
2Ixiel
I've heard it it as synonymous with "good," "new" and anti rich tax policy. Can you make a recommendation? Either just left or, since libertarian is socially liberal fiscally conservative, a good source that is fiscally liberal and socially conservative? I asked the DNC for the former and just got on their mailing list. Not impressed.
5Prismattic
The US "left" is considerably to the right of the European left, and LW has a broad international readership, so I think just saying "left" would be more confusing ("liberal" would even more confusing, given the dispute between libertarians and progressives over who is the legitimate heir of 19th century liberalism). But yes, in this case, I meant progressive in the sense of "mainstream center-left."
6Lumifer
Some of the US "left" (notably, the mainstream Democrats) are considerably to the right of the European left. "Left" encompasses a rather large landscape.
1Ixiel
Right right, thanks. Any source you'd recommend?
3Richard_Kennaway
Of course a progressive will think that progressivism is good, and part of progressivism is that it is good becuase it is new (the clue is in the name). Those who are not progressives will hardly agree. And anti rich tax policy is a straightforward left-leaning policy. It is tempting for progressives to define the word to mean "good" and "new", as it saves them the trouble of defending the ideology. The ideology can then be treated not as any set of beliefs about the reality, but as reality itself.

part of progressivism is that it is good becuase it is new (the clue is in the name)

No, that's not it. It doesn't mean you can't have new things happen that are bad. It does refer to a time derivative, but it's more of a goal than a statement of fact: government and society are not as good as they could be, and we can engineer the government to improve both. That's 'progress'. (Note: this summary is not an endorsement)

Progressive tax structures are not named so due to this time derivative. They are named so due to the derivative in income. Regressive tax structures exist, but they aren't named so due to being more like the past.

2Richard_Kennaway
That is progress, but that is not what is meant by "progressive" in the political sense. The belief that government can be engineered to improve things is shared by everyone except those in despair of it ever happening. Moldbug has proposals to do that -- is he a "progressive"? No, "progressive" means certain specific views about what is valued as an improvement, and specific beliefs about what policies will make those improvements. These values and views are accurately summarised as "left-leaning".
3Azathoth123
A lot of libertarians would beg to disagree there.
2Richard_Kennaway
I thought about that, but I decided that reducing the government and doing away with it counted as engineering the government. For the libertarian, the task is complete not when there is nothing more to add, but when there is nothing more to take away.
3Luke_A_Somers
Yes, there are specific things it's aiming at. I was justifying the word choice. And either way we've moved past the ridiculous notion that it is good because it's new. If you're going to try to correct me for being overly general you can at least own up to having been far more overly general just a few hours previously.
1ChristianKl
These days, how many of the people who call themselves progressive think that GMO's are really great because they are new technology? Half a century ago progressives really liked nuclear power because of the hope that it brings wealth. These days not so much.
6gjm
As someone else already pointed out, "progressive" doesn't mean "approving of all new things" (and in the context of taxation it's only a verbal coincidence that progressive politics tends to go with liking progressive taxation). Having said that, and in full awareness that anecdotes are little evidence: Hi, I'm a political progressive who has no objection in principle to GMOs and thinks we should be moving to nuclear power in a big way. (I have some incidental concerns about GMOs; e.g., they interact with IP law to provide exciting new ways for unscrupulous corporations to screw people over, which is a pity.)
2ChristianKl
I don't think it's a coincidence that progressives around 1900 called the method of taxation they favored progressive taxation. I haven't said something about objections in principle, my statement was much weaker. More to the point, I expect that a bunch of people on LW are pro-new-technology but that's not true for the average left person and pretending that being pro-new-technology is something that's an essential feature of progressive thought in the 21st century ignores the political realities. On the other hand it was an essential feature of progressive thought 50 years ago. In Marx idea of history, it's a natural law that history moves in the right direction.
3gjm
The OED's earliest citation for the term "progressive" in reference to taxation is from Thomas Paine's "Rights of Man" in 1792. Its first citation referring to a person who favours political or social change or reform is from 1830. It's possible that the latter meaning is older than 1792 (explanation on request) but, to say the least, it doesn't appear that the term "progressive" as a description for taxation systems that tax richer people more dates from "around 1900" or was chosen by people who identified themselves as "progressives" in anything like the modern US sense. I agree. I rather doubt that anyone -- at least anyone using "progressive" in its current US-political sense -- actually thinks otherwise, despite RichardKennaway's remark above. (In any case, it seems clear from what he wrote that he doesn't himself identify as progressive, and his description of progressives' thought processes doesn't appear to be the result of a serious attempt to understand them sympathetically.)
1ChristianKl
Google NGram does show an uptick over that time period for "progressive taxation". It's the time known as the Progressive Era Have you read Moldbug? I do think that Moldbug argues that progressivism is about favoring the new. Cthulhu always swims left. On LW there are a bunch of people that don't actually agree with Moldbug about wanting to reinstate monarchy but who still accept Moldbug way of thinking about issues. It's the problem with history. Moldbug tell his history about the progressives of the progressive era and then proclaims that today's left thought (the thought of the cathedral) is the same.
1gjm
So much the worse for Moldbug, at least if he makes a strong claim along those lines rather than something weaker and less controversial like "people who identify as progressive tend to be more positive about new things than people who identify as conservative". But I haven't devoted a lot of time or thought to Moldbug, or to neoreaction generally. I'm slightly lost track of what, if anything, we are actually disagreeing about here. I think it may at this point simply be about why various words have the definitions they do, which probably isn't something that's worth putting much further effort into.
1ChristianKl
You said you doubt that anybody thinks otherwise. I wanted to illustrate that there are people who do think otherwise. That's means talking about the issue matters.
2gjm
Sorry, I wasn't clear enough: What I've largely lost track of is what "the issue" actually is. I do understand that at this particular point in the thread we're talking about whether and to what extent progressivism is about liking new things. But I've forgotten (and haven't much motivation to go back and figure out) why -- if at all -- that question is relevant to anything that matters. I'm pretty certain (and I'd guess you agree) that on the whole being a "progressive" (in the sense in which that term's used in present-day US politics) is about other things more than it's about liking new things.
1ChristianKl
Understanding the political thought of the last few decades is useful and showing preconception to be wrong is also useful. Particularly it's useful to understand that the relationship of self identified progressives towards liking new things changed in the last 50 years.
1Richard_Kennaway
I confirm that this is accurate. And I stand corrected that the virtue of newness in progressive thinking has got old, while the word "progressive" persists. What do they think of "progress" these days? "You can't stop progress" was the saying back then. I haven't heard it uttered seriously for a long time, and if it's said at all, it's more likely to be as a criticism of the opposite side by imputing it to them. First relevant Google hit here.
0pragmatist
I'm fairly sure the majority of LW regulars who identify as progressives (myself included) would agree with these views about GMOs and nuclear power. However, I'm also pretty sure this is not true of the progressive movement at large, sadly. This is particularly frustrating because these two technologies are probably the most promising tools currently available for solving the problems many progressives purport to care most about.
1Ixiel
Amen. Just saying I've heard that use from other moderates as well who don't think too hard about it. Anyway, the other question is the more interesting to me. Any good left-leaning or socially-conservative-fiscally-liberal (short name?) news source?
6Lumifer
Short name = Christian.
5Nornagest
"Christian" covers a lot of ground. That's a fair description of the mainline Catholic viewpoint, but looking up a random Christian news source in the US could get you fiscal viewpoints ranging from lukewarm left to hardline right to more or less apolitical. (It's reliably socially conservative, though, generally speaking.)
0Azathoth123
Depends on the church.
3Ixiel
I honestly had not considered a Christian news option.
1Richard_Kennaway
That comes with some theological baggage, of course. You don't want a news source that interprets everything in terms of the end times and looks forward to a nuclear war to annihilate the damned. I've heard good things of the Christian Science Monitor (which obviously has even more questionable baggage), but I haven't read it myself. Also Al Jazeera, which has other baggage (owned by a government), and which I also haven't read.
2Azathoth123
Try reading it. Despite the name it doesn't have an obvious Christian Science Bias. Although I've heard it is running into financial problems due to a principled refusal to resort to clickbait and fluff stories.
0[anonymous]
CSM is very well-regarded. When I was in college, I took a class taught by the head of the polisci department -- Cuba-loving socialist type -- who had a habit of recommending it during lectures.
0Lumifer
Sure, but all news sources come with some baggage -- mostly ideological, sometimes theological, and often enough just batshit crazy. That's why you don't want a news source, you want lots of them.
5Alejandro1
The American Conservative is definitely socially conservative and, if not exactly fiscally liberal, at least much more sympathetic to economic redistribution than mainstream conservatism. But it is more composed of opinion pieces than of news reports, so I don't know if it works for way you want. As others suggested, Vox could be a good choice for a left-leaning news source. It has decent summaries of "everything you need to know about X" (where X = many current news stories).
0Ixiel
Thanks!
-5Azathoth123
6MichaelAnissimov
Instapundit is highly ideological libertarian, so you should balance it out with a reactionary news source like Theden.tv or Steve Sailer.
3Azathoth123
As it happens I also read Steve Sailer, although he isn't so much news as editorial cometary whereas instupundit is more "list of headlines" of the kind sixes-and-sevens was asking about.
[-]Metus150

According to the efficient market hypothesis index funds should be the best way for the average person to gain a return from investment. Now there is a plethora of indices to invest in. How should one find the 'best' one?

Further, only a relatively small part of return generating assets are captured in publically tradeable assets. What about private equity and real estate, huge parts of the economy?

[-]RowanE110

Funds take a fraction of the earnings out, as management fees, and you want the fund that charges the lowest such fees. The early retirement blogs I read seem to agree on Vanguard being the best choice, at least in the US.

3hyporational
IIRC real estate prices in the US rise about 1% per year inflation adjusted while stock markets rise about 7 % on average. An average person needs a huge loan to invest in real estate and go all in which means zero spread of risk. Real estate is also relatively illiquid not only because of practical reasons but because the return of investment depends on timing of the transaction. You're shit out of luck if you need money while the price of your house is plummeting. Depends on your risk tolerance. The bigger the index, the lower the risk and the lower the possible returns, generally. Also bigger index funds are usually more liquid. Transaction costs matter quite a lot unless you have a big lump sum to invest, and even then you should consider dollar cost averaging.
[-]ESRogs110

An average person needs a huge loan to invest in real estate

That's not true. It's easy to get exposure to real estate through REITs. For example, through my wealthfront.com portfolio, I'm invested in Vanguard's US REIT ETF, VNQ.

I stand corrected.

8roystgnr
YRC. I thought you were forgetting to adjust the stock market returns for inflation, so I went to hunt for more accurate numbers, but apparently 1950-2009 S&P500 inflation-adjusted returns (counting not just price rise, but dividends) averaged to 7% per year.
2hyporational
Thanks. If you care about transaction costs you should probably invest in funds that reinvest dividends automatically.
1niceguyanon
There is also real estate taxes just for holding the asset and upkeep expenses too! But to be fair, asset appreciation isn't the only return on real estate, many investment properties are income producing assets. But then again you can just get that exposure from REITS anyway.
1Ixiel
I an efficient market the expected value wouldn't be all that different between options, so base it on your risk management preferences.

It Ain't Necessarily So: Why Much of the Medical Literature Is Wrong

Some of the material will be familiar, but there are examples I hadn't seen before of how really hard it is to be sure you've asked the right question and squeezed out the sources of error in the answer.

What follows is what I consider to be a good parts summary-- if you want more theory, you should read the article.

Consider a study published in the NEJM that showed an association between diabetes and pancreatic cancer.[3] The casual reader might conclude that diabetes causes pancreatic cancer. However, further analysis showed that much of the diabetes was of recent onset. The pancreatic cancer preceded the diabetes, and the cancer subsequently destroyed the insulin-producing islet cells of the pancreas. Therefore, this was not a case of diabetes causing pancreatic cancer but of pancreatic cancer causing the diabetes.

....

To illustrate the point, consider the ISIS-2 trial,[8] which showed reduced mortality in patients given aspirin after myocardial infarction. However, subgroup analyses identified some patients who did not benefit: those born under the astrological signs of Gemini and Libra; patients born under

... (read more)

An interesting paper. The abstract says:

Rationality leads people to imitate those with similar tastes but different information. But people who imitate common sources develop correlated beliefs, and rationality demands that later social learners take this correlation into account. This implies severe limits to rational imitation. We show that (i) in most natural observation structures besides the canonical single-file case, full rationality dictates that people must “anti-imitate” some of those they observe; and (ii) in every observation structure full rationality dictates that people imitate, on net, at most one person and are imitated by, on net, at most one person, over any set of interconnected players. We also show that in a very broad class of settings, any learning rule in which people regularly do imitate more than one person without anti-imitating others will lead to a positive probability of people converging to confident and wrong long-run beliefs.

3Metus
Ungated version?
1Douglas_Knight
Learn to use google scholar
1Lumifer
I don't know of one.
1Richard_Kennaway
I was this moment moved to search for the origin of a certain quote, and the process described in that paper seems to apply quite well to the promulgation of wrong citations. Here's a history of the idea of "three stages of truth". Actually, the situation for citations is even worse. The doctors in the example of the paper are observing their own outcomes as well as copying their predecessors' decisions, but someone copying a citation may make no observation of its accuracy. More generally, memetic propagation.

I have a notion that an FAI will be able to create better friends and lovers for you than actual humans could be. Family would be a more complex case if you value the history as well as the current experience.

I'm not talking about catgirls-- if some difficulties in relationships are part of making relationships better in the long haul, then the FAI will supply difficulties.

If people eventually have relationships with FAI-created humans rather than humans generated by other means, is this a problem?

6Gunnar_Zarncke
See also EYs Failed Utopia #4-2 I'm not sure we can extrapolate this currently. If we knew more, thought faster... maybe. For me this means that one contraint on FAI is that it may not perform changes arbitrarily fast. Too fast for humans to react and adapt. There must be a 'smooth' trajectory. Surely not the abrupt change suggested in Failed Utopia.
6cousin_it
You've asked that before. I don't have any new thoughts on this question, so I'll just quote my answer from there:
4lmm
I thought that was already part of catgirls?
3hyporational
What's a catgirl?
5Lumifer
An indistinguishable-from-live sex toy.
9Jayson_Virissimo
With cat-ears.
3Shmi
Let's first separate sexual aspects from the need for other companionship. Suppose everyone gets their sexual needs, if any satisfied by catgirls+ (+ for the upgrade which includes relationship problems if necessary). If you have a crush on your coworker (or your sibling, ew!), just add a catgirl copy of them to your harem. Further suppose that the reproduction aspect is also taken care of. Now you have a race of essentially asexual humans, as far as human-to-human interactions go. The question is, does it make sense to have friendbots? What, if anything, is lost when you switch from socializing with meat humans to socializing with simulated ones?

Let's first separate sexual aspects from the need for other companionship

It's not self-evident to me that they are separable.

2hyporational
When my heterosexual male friends tell me companionship isn't about sex I ask them how many male companions they've had. Not many, I've gathered from the silence.
5Lumifer
For hetero males the usual term for male companions is "close friends". I bet the great majority have some. But go ask some hetero women whether they think sex and companionship are well-separable :-/
4Azathoth123
Also I get the feeling 21th century Americans have fewer close friends than the historical human norm.
2Lumifer
I don't know what the "historical human norm" is and I suspect there is a lot of variation there.
3Azathoth123
Try reading literature written before the past 50 years and preferably before the 20th century. That will give you an idea.
4Lumifer
I am afraid Victorian England is not all that representative of the historical human norm.
3Azathoth123
I wasn't primarily thinking of Victorian England. Also "before the 20th century" isn't just the 19th century.
2hyporational
In Finnish the connotations of "companion" are more obviously sexual I see, at least in my circles.
3Lumifer
It's probably a language issue, in standard English the word "companion" has no sexual overtones. More to the point, this subthread is explicitly about separating sex from companionship.
1EStokes
Ah, but it's quite likely that they're heteroromantic as well as heterosexual.
1hyporational
Perhaps, but why haven't I come across any homoromantic heterosexuals or heteroromantic homosexuals?
3EStokes
AFAIK people with mismatched romantic and sexual orientations, though very much existent, are quite rare and the -romantic terms are most often used by asexual spectrum people to describe their romantic preferences.
2hyporational
Asexuals with romantic orientations came across my mind too. I can't imagine romantic and sexual orientations as separate, but the stakes aren't high enough for me to commit the typical mind fallacy so I'll keep my mind open to the possibility :)
3Azathoth123
This strikes me as superstimulating. In particular, the more cat girls you have, the more and kinkier cat girls you want.
1Shmi
Not necessarily, Plenty of people are happy with vanilla sex (or without). I suspect that even the kinkiest ones out there also have their limit. If not, let's talk about those who do.
0Azathoth123
That's because vanilla sex isn't as stimulating. The more superstimulating something is, the more experiencing it causes you to want more of it.
3gjm
For people who are into one or another variety of kink, or would be if only they knew about it / were prepared to try it. I don't think it's obvious that that's everyone.
3Lumifer
That doesn't seem to be the case, see e.g. yummy food. I think you're confusing "stimulating" and "addictive".
1Shmi
That "explanation" is easily falsified. There are plenty of people who tried kinkier sex, enjoyed it, but reverted back to vanilla. There are plenty of people who tried roller-coasters once or twice but decided it's too much "stimulation".
2Azathoth123
Different people have different thresholds. If I remember the study correctly, none of the rats that tried directly stimulating their pleasure center ever went back.
1Shmi
Rats != people...
2Azathoth123
Yes, well it would be unethical to repeat that experiment with people.
5Jodika
People, however, (as shminux said) do try kink all the time. It would not be unethical to do a study on people who are already kinky and see if they get kinkier over time. Anecdotally, they start doing kink, they either decide it isn't for them and stop, or they do get kinkier for a while - because they're exploring what they like and it makes sense to start at the less extreme end of things. Then they figure out what they like, which is often a range of things at differing levels of 'kinkiness/extremeness', and do that. I mean, it's almost trivially obvious that compared to the size of the kink community, there is an almost negligible amount of people doing the human equivalent of directly stimulating their pleasure centres to the exclusion of everything else. They tend to make the news. The moderately kinky majority do not.
0Tripitaka
Well, there have been experiments on humans. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pleasure_center#Human_experiments
3Lumifer
This looks to be wireheading lite and if you got there I don't see why you wouldn't make the next step as well -- the FAI will create the entire world for you to enjoy inside your head.
2NancyLebovitz
I thought wireheading meant stable high pleasure without content rather than an enjoyable simulated world. What do other people think wireheading means?
1Lumifer
Well, technically the term "wireheading" comes from experiments which involved inserting an electrode (a "wire") into a rat's pleasure center and giving the rat a pedal to apply electric current to this wire. So yes, in the narrow sense wireheading is just the direct stimulation of the pleasure center. However I use "wireheading" in the wide sense as well and there it means, essentially, the focus on deriving pleasure from externally caused but internal experiences and the lack of interest in or concern with the outside world. Wireheading in the wide sense is, basically, purified addiction.
2NancyLebovitz
If we're living inside an FAI, "outside world" might be getting a little vague. This might even be true if we're still living in our DNA-based bodies. Do you think an FAI would let people have access to anything it isn't at least monitoring, and more likely controlling?
1Lumifer
Uploads/ems are a bit of a different case. I don't know, but in such a case I probably would not consider it a FAI.
1hyporational
How? Why does it matter in what substrate the information pattern called you resides in this case? I doubt the meat brain will have any connectibility issues once we have uploads.
1Lumifer
I am not an information pattern having, for example, a considerable somatic component :-D
1hyporational
Depends. You could have a robotic somatic component, or a human body grown in a vat.
-1Lumifer
I don't see much difference between a human body grown in a vat and one grown in a womb. But, generally speaking, in the context of wireheading the somatic component matters.
0hyporational
Does it matter to you because of semantic or moral reasons? I fail to see any moral difference in living in a virtual world as a meat brain vs living in a virtual world as a silicon brain. The semantic difference is obvious.
0Lumifer
It matters for practical reasons. Self as an "information pattern" is an abstraction and abstractions do not exist in reality.
0hyporational
Do fluids and solids exist in reality?
0Lumifer
Things with particular properties exist in reality, their categorization (e.g. into fluids and solids ) does not.
0hyporational
I suppose brains or selves don't exist in reality either. I'm not sure what we're getting at here. So where are categories then, if they don't exist in reality?
0Lumifer
Brains certainly do :-) In your mind.
0hyporational
I'm pretty sure brain is a category too. Certainly more so than fluid or solid.
0[anonymous]
I'm not sure how spending time with a lover counts as a lack of interest in the outside world, even if the lover had come into existence via an unusual route.
1blacktrance
I say it's not a problem, but my views are outside the LW mainstream on this.
0gattsuru
Depends on what the machine has optimized for. I'm not convinced that many definitions of better friends or lovers are vital optimization goals, or even good ones, in themselves. It's quite easy to imagine a set of relationships that trigger every desirable stimuli trigger an individual enjoys, complete with short-term difficulties if necessary, but leaves the victim trapped in a situation where his or her preferences remain at a local optima or are otherwise Not Correct by some grander standard. Interaction with external minds and external situations not built toward you seem like very important parts of jostling folk out from such environments. Better optimization goals might do that, but it's not an assumption you can easily take. I'd argue that non-catgirl created beings are people (tautologically), and while relationships with artificially-produced people is fine itself, there are also some possible ethical issues with creating minds optimized for better relationships for certain people, as well, though they're likely outside the scope of this thread (energy efficiency compared to sorting existing minds, harmful desires, House Elves).

If you liked Scott Alexander's essay, Meditations on Moloch, you might like this typographic poster-meme I made. It was a minor success on Facebook.

(If you haven't read Scott Alexander's essay, Meditations on Moloch, then you might want to check it out. As Stuart Armstrong said, it's a beautiful, disturbing, poetical look at the future.)

1Shmi
I don't understand... The point of the essay is that one should not anthropomorhize Moloch, and your meme does exactly that.

There is the line "thinking of the system as an agent throws into relief the degree to which the system isn’t an agent" so I see what you mean. But I think that just means that there's no sane agent to deal with, no law of the universe that says we can appease Moloch in exchange for something.

But anthropomorphizing Moloch, perhaps poetically, is different, and there's plenty of anthropomorphizing Moloch in the essay:

"But if we have bound Moloch as our servant, the bonds are not very strong, and we sometimes find that the tasks he has done for us move to his advantage rather than ours."

"We will break our back lifting Moloch to Heaven, but unless something changes it will be his victory and not ours."

"In the very near future, we are going to lift something to Heaven. It might be Moloch. But it might be something on our side. If it is on our side, it can kill Moloch dead."

"Moloch is exactly what the history books say he is. He is the god of Carthage. He is the god of child sacrifice, the fiery furnace into which you can toss your babies in exchange for victory in war. He always and everywhere offers the same deal: throw what you love most ... (read more)

In the interest of trying out stuff outside the usual sphere-of-things-that-I'm-doing, I now have a fashion/lifestyle blog.

It's in Finnish, but it has a bunch of pictures of me, which ought to be language-neutral. Also my stuffed animals. (And yes, I know that I need a better camera.)

Hi. I'm Portuguese and live near Lisbon. Are there any LWers out there that live nearby?

The latest survey (2013) shows zero people living in Portugal, and so I feel a bit lonely out here, especially when I read the locations for the LW meetups. They seem so close, only not really...

I guess I could make an effort to start my own meetup in Lisbon or something, maybe, I don't know. I am a little shy and I don't think I am capable of starting something like that on my own.

I work in academia, in the field of computer science, and thus am surrounded by people th... (read more)

3ChristianKl
Getting people to read HPMOR is easier than getting them to read the sequences.

I remember seeing this organization on LW but cannot find it again or remember the name: it was a for-profit school-like entity that does a short training program (might have been 6 six week, maybe 3 months, that range), which is free upfront and takes their payment entirely as a percentage of the salary from the job they place you in afterward. If I remember correctly, it is run in the Bay Area and took a small pool each session, with a school-like application process.

Can anyone point me to this?

7Nornagest
That sounds like App Academy or one of its competitors.
4VAuroch
App Academy was the one I was thinking of specifically, thanks.

I have yet to find any thoughts on Effective Altruism that do not assume vast amounts of disposable income on the part of the reader. What I am currently trying to determine are things like 'at what point does it make sense to give away some of your income versus the utility of having decent quality of life yourself and insuring against the risk that you end up consuming charitable resources because something happened and you didn't have an emergency fund'. Does anyone know of any posts or similar that tackle the effective utilitarian use of resources when you don't have a lot of resources to begin with?

6Lumifer
I don't think there is a general answer to the question "How much should I consume?"
1Jodika
Is this a thing we should be asking if someone who is an expert on Effective Altruism and economics and similar could have a go at answering?
1Lumifer
You can ask, but why the answer would be anything else other than someone's personal opinion? It's a straightforward question about personal values. Do you think it's a good idea to have experts in EA or economics tell you what your values should be?
5Jodika
It's a straightforward question about personal values. Do you think it's a good idea to have experts in EA or economics tell you what your values should be? No, but they might know things like the scale of diminishing returns in terms of spending money on yourself, or at what minimum level of wealth do an acceptable majority of people (in x culture or x country) report being satisfied with their lives? They might have a personal anecdote about how they earn a million dollars a year and live in a ditch and have never been happier, and they might know the psychological reasoning why some people are happy to do that and some people aren't. I mean, yes, it's true that their answer is not going to be everybody's. But an attempt to answer the question seems very likely to turn up useful information that could help people make their own decisions.
2ChristianKl
Putting money into an emergency fund here it can gather interest doesn't mean that you can't donate the same money 10 years from now.
2dspeyer
I don't have a link, but I suspect cutting this fine is not very valuable. That last $10k would be a lot to you, but that wouldn't make it more than any other $10k to a charity. Instead, ask how you could come to have a vast amount of disposable income. Including whether it makes sense to spend some money toward that end. You may be able to get a very high rate of return investing in yourself.
1drethelin
to me EA is more about how to answer the question "how should I be charitable?" than "Should I be charitable and to what extent?"
1gjm
Most of the EA stuff I've seen doesn't appear to me to assume vast amounts of disposable income; merely enough to be willing to give some away. Then EA is about what to do with your charity budget, whether it's large or small. How you prioritize helping others versus helping yourself (and your family, if any) is a more or less orthogonal question. (I might suggest, snarkily, that for someone who requires "vast amounts of disposable income" before being willing to give any away no term with "altruism" in it is very appropriate. But that wouldn't be fair because e.g. your intention might be to secure yourself a reasonably comfortable life and then give away every penny you can earn beyond that, or something.)
1Jodika
That's it, basically; it's about how much of a buffer I'm 'allowed' to give myself on 'reasonably comfortable'; I'm supporting myself and full-time student partner and not in permanent full-time employment so my instinct whenever I have a sniff of an excess is to hoard it against a bad month for getting work rather than do anything charitable with it (or it all goes on things we've put off replacing for monetary reasons, like shoes that are still wearable but worn out enough to no longer be waterproof). I think Lumifer articulated better than I could what I really wanted to know the answer to, and while there may not be a general answer it does mean that I can at least go looking for things to read now my real question is clearer to me. So thanks!

There are two questions here. The first is how you trade off the value you place on your own welfare vs the value you place on the welfare of distant others. And the second is how having extra cash will benefit your mental health, energy levels, free time, etc. and whether by improving those attributes of yours you'll increase the odds of doing more good for the world in the future.

I consider myself a pretty hardcore EA; I gave $20K to charity last year. But this year I'm saving all my money so my earning-to-give startup will have a bigger cash buffer. And I spend about $100/month on random stuff from Amazon that I think will make my life better (a weighted jump rope for exercising with, an acupressure mat for relaxing more effectively, nootropics, Larry Gonick's cartoon guides to the history of the universe so I can relax & educate myself away from my computer, etc.)

So I guess the point I'm trying to make is you don't even have to deal with the first values question if you decide that investing in yourself is a good investment from a long-run EA perspective. Don't be penny-wise and pound-foolish... your mental energy is limited and if you find wet feet at all stressful, i... (read more)

2Jodika