[epistemic status: that's just my opinion, man. I have highly suggestive evidence, not deductive proof, for a belief I sincerely hold]

"If you see fraud and do not say fraud, you are a fraud." --- Nasim Taleb

I was talking with a colleague the other day about an AI organization that claims:

1. AGI is probably coming in the next 20 years.
2. Many of the reasons we have for believing this are secret.
3. They're secret because if we told people about those reasons, they'd learn things that would let them make an AGI even sooner than they would otherwise.

His response was (paraphrasing): "Wow, that's a really good lie! A lie that can't be disproven."

I found this response refreshing, because he immediately jumped to the most likely conclusion.

Near predictions generate more funding

Generally, entrepreneurs who