This post is a not a so secret analogy for the AI Alignment problem. Via a fictional dialog, Eliezer explores and counters common questions to the Rocket Alignment Problem as approached by the Mathematics of Intentional Rocketry Institute. 

MIRI researchers will tell you they're worried that "right now, nobody can tell you how to point your rocket’s nose such that it goes to the moon, nor indeed any prespecified celestial destination."

dirk2h74
1
Sometimes a vague phrasing is not an inaccurate demarkation of a more precise concept, but an accurate demarkation of an imprecise concept
Fabien Roger3hΩ240
0
List sorting does not play well with few-shot mostly doesn't replicate with davinci-002. When using length-10 lists (it crushes length-5 no matter the prompt), I get: * 32-shot, no fancy prompt: ~25% * 0-shot, fancy python prompt: ~60%  * 0-shot, no fancy prompt: ~60% So few-shot hurts, but the fancy prompt does not seem to help. Code here. I'm interested if anyone knows another case where a fancy prompt increases performance more than few-shot prompting, where a fancy prompt is a prompt that does not contain information that a human would use to solve the task. This is because I'm looking for counterexamples to the following conjecture: "fine-tuning on k examples beats fancy prompting, even when fancy prompting beats k-shot prompting" (for a reasonable value of k, e.g. the number of examples it would take a human to understand what is going on).
Thomas Kwa18h203
0
The cost of goods has the same units as the cost of shipping: $/kg. Referencing between them lets you understand how the economy works, e.g. why construction material sourcing and drink bottling has to be local, but oil tankers exist. * An iPhone costs $4,600/kg, about the same as SpaceX charges to launch it to orbit. [1] * Beef, copper, and off-season strawberries are $11/kg, about the same as a 75kg person taking a three-hour, 250km Uber ride costing $3/km. * Oranges and aluminum are $2-4/kg, about the same as flying them to Antarctica. [2] * Rice and crude oil are ~$0.60/kg, about the same as $0.72 for shipping it 5000km across the US via truck. [3,4] Palm oil, soybean oil, and steel are around this price range, with wheat being cheaper. [3] * Coal and iron ore are $0.10/kg, significantly more than the cost of shipping it around the entire world via smallish (Handysize) bulk carriers. Large bulk carriers are another 4x more efficient [6]. * Water is very cheap, with tap water $0.002/kg in NYC. But shipping via tanker is also very cheap, so you can ship it maybe 1000 km before equaling its cost. It's really impressive that for the price of a winter strawberry, we can ship a strawberry-sized lump of coal around the world 100-400 times. [1] iPhone is $4600/kg, large launches sell for $3500/kg, and rideshares for small satellites $6000/kg. Geostationary orbit is more expensive, so it's okay for them to cost more than an iPhone per kg, but Starlink wants to be cheaper. [2] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU0000711415. Can't find numbers but Antarctica flights cost $1.05/kg in 1996. [3] https://www.bts.gov/content/average-freight-revenue-ton-mile [4] https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities [5] https://www.statista.com/statistics/1232861/tap-water-prices-in-selected-us-cities/ [6] https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Total-unit-shipping-costs-for-dry-bulk-carrier-ships-per-tkm-EUR-tkm-in-2019_tbl3_351748799
My current main cruxes: 1. Will AI get takeover capability? When? 2. Single ASI or many AGIs? 3. Will we solve technical alignment? 4. Value alignment, intent alignment, or CEV? 5. Defense>offense or offense>defense? 6. Is a long-term pause achievable? If there is reasonable consensus on any one of those, I'd much appreciate to know about it. Else, I think these should be research priorities.
dirk3h30
0
I'm against intuitive terminology [epistemic status: 60%] because it creates the illusion of transparency; opaque terms make it clear you're missing something, but if you already have an intuitive definition that differs from the author's it's easy to substitute yours in without realizing you've misunderstood.

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Concerns over AI safety and calls for government control over the technology are highly correlated but they should not be.

There are two major forms of AI risk: misuse and misalignment. Misuse risks come from humans using AIs as tools in dangerous ways. Misalignment risks arise if AIs take their own actions at the expense of human interests.

Governments are poor stewards for both types of risk. Misuse regulation is like the regulation of any other technology. There are reasonable rules that the government might set, but omission bias and incentives to protect small but well organized groups at the expense of everyone else will lead to lots of costly ones too. Misalignment regulation is not in the Overton window for any government. Governments do not have strong incentives...

May I strongly recommend that you try to become a Dark Lord instead? 

I mean, literally. Stage some small bloody civil war with expected body count of several millions, become dictator, provide everyone free insurance coverage for cryonics, it will be sure more ethical than 10% of chance of killing literally everyone from the perspective of most of ethical systems I know.

2Daniel Kokotajlo1h
Big +1 to that. Part of why I support (some kinds of) AI regulation is that I think they'll reduce the risk of totalitarianism, not increase it.
2Daniel Kokotajlo1h
So, it sounds like you'd be in favor of a 1-year pause or slowdown then, but not a 10-year? (Also, I object to your side-swipe at longtermism. Longtermism according to wikipedia is "Longtermism is the ethical view that positively influencing the long-term future is a key moral priority of our time." "A key moral priority" doesn't mean "the only thing that has substantial moral value." If you had instead dunked on classic utilitarianism, I would have agreed.)

I refuse to join any club that would have me as a member.

— Groucho Marx

Alice and Carol are walking on the sidewalk in a large city, and end up together for a while.

"Hi, I'm Alice! What's your name?"

Carol thinks:

If Alice is trying to meet people this way, that means she doesn't have a much better option for meeting people, which reduces my estimate of the value of knowing Alice. That makes me skeptical of this whole interaction, which reduces the value of approaching me like this, and Alice should know this, which further reduces my estimate of Alice's other social options, which makes me even less interested in meeting Alice like this.

Carol might not think all of that consciously, but that's how human social reasoning tends to...

jchan7m10

In my experience, Americans are actually eager to talk to strangers and make friends with them if and only if they have some good reason to be where they are and talk to those people besides making friends with people.

A corollary of this is that if anyone at an [X] gathering is asked “So, what got you into [X]?” and answers “I heard there’s a great community around [X]”, then that person needs to be given the cold shoulder and made to feel unwelcome, because otherwise the bubble of deniability is pierced and the lemon spiral will set in, ruining it for ... (read more)

For the last month, @RobertM and I have been exploring the possible use of recommender systems on LessWrong. Today we launched our first site-wide experiment in that direction. 

Behold, a tab with recommendations!

(In the course of our efforts, we also hit upon a frontpage refactor that we reckon is pretty good: tabs instead of a clutter of different sections. For now, only for logged-in users. Logged-out users see the "Latest" tab, which is the same-as-usual list of posts.)

Why algorithmic recommendations?

A core value of LessWrong is to be timeless and not news-driven. However, the central algorithm by which attention allocation happens on the site is the Hacker News algorithm[1], which basically only shows you things that were posted recently, and creates a strong incentive for discussion to always be...

I'm generally not a fan of increasing the amount of illegible selection effects.

On the privacy side, can lesswrong guarantee that, if I never click or Recommended, then recombee will never see an (even anonymized) trace of what I browse on lesswrong?

2niplav38m
I realized I hadn't given feedback on the actual results of the recommendation algorithm. Rating the recommendations I've gotten (from -10 to 10, 10 is best): * My experience using financial commitments to overcome akrasia: 3 * An Introduction to AI Sandbagging: 3 * Improving Dictionary Learning with Gated Sparse Autoencoders: 2 * [April Fools' Day] Introducing Open Asteroid Impact: -6 * LLMs seem (relatively) safe: -3 * The first future and the best future: -2 * Examples of Highly Counterfactual Discoveries?: 5 * "Why I Write" by George Orwell (1946): -3 * My Clients, The Liars: -4 * 'Empiricism!' as Anti-Epistemology: -2 * Toward a Broader Conception of Adverse Selection: 4 * Ambitious Altruistic Software Engineering Efforts: Opportunities and Benefits: 6
dirk2h74

Sometimes a vague phrasing is not an inaccurate demarkation of a more precise concept, but an accurate demarkation of an imprecise concept

3dirk3h
I'm against intuitive terminology [epistemic status: 60%] because it creates the illusion of transparency; opaque terms make it clear you're missing something, but if you already have an intuitive definition that differs from the author's it's easy to substitute yours in without realizing you've misunderstood.
1dirk4h
I'm not alexithymic; I directly experience my emotions and have, additionally, introspective access to my preferences. However, some things manifest directly as preferences which I have been shocked to realize in my old age, were in fact emotions all along. (In rare cases these are stronger than the ones directly-felt even, despite reliably seeming on initial inspection to be simply neutral metadata).
1dirk4h
Meta/object level is one possible mixup but it doesn't need to be that. Alternative example, is/ought: Cedar objects to thing Y. Dusk explains that it happens because Z. Cedar reiterates that it shouldn't happen, Dusk clarifies that in fact it is the natural outcome of Z, and we're off once more.

U.S. Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo announced today additional members of the executive leadership team of the U.S. AI Safety Institute (AISI), which is housed at the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST). Raimondo named Paul Christiano as Head of AI Safety, Adam Russell as Chief Vision Officer, Mara Campbell as Acting Chief Operating Officer and Chief of Staff, Rob Reich as Senior Advisor, and Mark Latonero as Head of International Engagement. They will join AISI Director Elizabeth Kelly and Chief Technology Officer Elham Tabassi, who were announced in February. The AISI was established within NIST at the direction of President Biden, including to support the responsibilities assigned to the Department of Commerce under the President’s landmark Executive Order.

Paul Christiano, Head of AI Safety, will design

...

That doesn't seem like "consistently and catastrophically," it seems like "far too often, but with thankfully fairly limited local consequences."

2Davidmanheim10h
BSL isn't the thing that defines "appropriate units of risk", that's pathogen risk-group levels, and I agree that those are are problem because they focus on pathogen lists rather than actual risks. I actually think BSL are good at what they do, and the problem is regulation and oversight, which is patchy, as well as transparency, of which there is far too little. But those are issues with oversight, not with the types of biosecurity measure that are available.
2Adam Scholl14h
This thread isn't seeming very productive to me, so I'm going to bow out after this. But yes, it is a primary concern—at least in the case of Open Philanthropy, it's easy to check what their primary concerns are because they write them up. And accidental release from dual use research is one of them.
2Davidmanheim10h
If you're appealing to OpenPhil, it might be useful to ask one of the people who was working with them on this as well. And you've now equivocated between "they've induced an EA cause area" and a list of the range of risks covered by biosecurity - not what their primary concerns are - and citing this as "one of them." I certainly agree that biosecurity levels are one of the things biosecurity is about, and that "the possibility of accidental deployment of biological agents" is a key issue, but that's incredibly far removed from the original claim that the failure of BSL levels induced the cause area!

(Half-baked work-in-progress. There might be a “version 2” of this post at some point, with fewer mistakes, and more neuroscience details, and nice illustrations and pedagogy etc. But it’s fun to chat and see if anyone has thoughts.)

1. Background

There’s a neuroscience problem that’s had me stumped since almost the very beginning of when I became interested in neuroscience at all (as a lens into AGI safety) back in 2019. But I think I might finally have “a foot in the door” towards a solution!

What is this problem? As described in my post Symbol Grounding and Human Social Instincts, I believe the following:

...
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By A [Editor: This article is reprinted from Extropy #5, Winter 1990. Extropy was published by The Extropy Institute]

 

Call to Arms

 

Down with the law of gravity!

 

By what right does it counter my will? I have not pledged my allegiance to the law of gravity; I have learned to live under its force as one learns to live under a tyrant. Whatever gravity's benefits, I want the freedom to deny its iron hand. Yet gravity reigns despite my complaints. "No gravitation without representation!" I shout. "Down with the law of gravity!"

 

Down with all of nature's laws!

 

Gravity, the electromagnetic force, the strong and weak nuclear forces - together they conspire to destroy human intelligence. Their evil leader? Entropy. Throw out the Four Forces! Down with Entropy!

 

Down with every limitation!

 

I call for...

With my electronic harp mandolin project I've been enjoying working with analog and embedded audio hardware. And a few weeks ago, after reading about Ugo Conti's whistle-controlled synth I wrote to him, he gave me a call, and we had a really interesting conversation. And my existing combination of hardware for my whistle synth [1] is bulky and expensive. Which has me excited about a new project: I'd like to make an embedded version.

Yesterday I got started on the first component: getting audio into the microcontroller. I want to start with a standard dynamic mic, so I can keep using the same mic for talkbox and whistle synth, so it should take standard balanced audio on XLR as input. In a full version this would need an XLR port, but for now I...

2Wei Dai5h
Why do you think these values are positive? I've been pointing out, and I see that Daniel Kokotajlo also pointed out in 2018 that these values could well be negative. I'm very uncertain but my own best guess is that the expected value of misaligned AI controlling the universe is negative, in part because I put some weight on suffering-focused ethics.
1mesaoptimizer7h
e/acc is not a coherent philosophy and treating it as one means you are fighting shadows. Landian accelerationism at least is somewhat coherent. "e/acc" is a bundle of memes that support the self-interest of the people supporting and propagating it, both financially (VC money, dreams of making it big) and socially (the non-Beff e/acc vibe is one of optimism and hope and to do things -- to engage with the object level -- instead of just trying to steer social reality). A more charitable interpretation is that the philosophical roots of "e/acc" are founded upon a frustration with how bad things are, and a desire to improve things by yourself. This is a sentiment I share and empathize with. I find the term "techno-optimism" to be a more accurate description of the latter, and perhaps "Beff Jezos philosophy" a more accurate description of what you have in your mind. And "e/acc" to mainly describe the community and its coordinated movements at steering the world towards outcomes that the people within the community perceive as benefiting them.
Quinn1h10

sure -- i agree that's why i said "something adjacent to" because it had enough overlap in properties. I think my comment completely stands with a different word choice, I'm just not sure what word choice would do a better job.

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