This post is a not a so secret analogy for the AI Alignment problem. Via a fictional dialog, Eliezer explores and counters common questions to the Rocket Alignment Problem as approached by the Mathematics of Intentional Rocketry Institute. 

MIRI researchers will tell you they're worried that "right now, nobody can tell you how to point your rocket’s nose such that it goes to the moon, nor indeed any prespecified celestial destination."

So the usual refrain from Zvi and others is that the specter of China beating us to the punch with AGI is not real because limits on compute, etc. I think Zvi has tempered his position on this in light of Meta's promise to release the weights of its 400B+ model. Now there is word that SenseTime just released a model that beats GPT-4 Turbo on various metrics. Of course, maybe Meta chooses not to release its big model, and maybe SenseTime is bluffing--I would point out though that Alibaba's Qwen model seems to do pretty okay in the arena...anyway, my point is that I don't think the "what if China" argument can be dismissed as quickly as some people on here seem to be ready to do.
nim10m20
0
I've found an interesting "bug" in my cognition: a reluctance to rate subjective experiences on a subjective scale useful for comparing them. When I fuzz this reluctance against many possible rating scales, I find that it seems to arise from the comparison-power itself. The concrete case is that I've spun up a habit tracker on my phone and I'm trying to build a routine of gathering some trivial subjective-wellbeing and lifestyle-factor data into it. My prototype of this system includes tracking the high and low points of my mood through the day as recalled at the end of the day. This is causing me to interrogate the experiences as they're happening to see if a particular moment is a candidate for best or worst of the day, and attempt to mentally store a score for it to log later. I designed the rough draft of the system with the ease of it in mind -- I didn't think it would induce such struggle to slap a quick number on things. Yet I find myself worrying more than anticipated about whether I'm using the scoring scale "correctly", whether I'm biased by the moment to perceive the experience in a way that I'd regard as inaccurate in retrospect, and so forth. Fortunately it's not a big problem, as nothing particularly bad will happen if my data is sloppy, or if I don't collect it at all. But it strikes me as interesting, a gap in my self-knowledge that wants picking-at like peeling the inedible skin away to get at a tropical fruit.
The cost of goods has the same units as the cost of shipping: $/kg. Referencing between them lets you understand how the economy works, e.g. why construction material sourcing and drink bottling has to be local, but oil tankers exist. * An iPhone costs $4,600/kg, about the same as SpaceX charges to launch it to orbit. [1] * Beef, copper, and off-season strawberries are $11/kg, about the same as a 75kg person taking a three-hour, 250km Uber ride costing $3/km. * Oranges and aluminum are $2-4/kg, about the same as flying them to Antarctica. [2] * Rice and crude oil are ~$0.60/kg, about the same as $0.72 for shipping it 5000km across the US via truck. [3,4] Palm oil, soybean oil, and steel are around this price range, with wheat being cheaper. [3] * Coal and iron ore are $0.10/kg, significantly more than the cost of shipping it around the entire world via smallish (Handysize) bulk carriers. Large bulk carriers are another 4x more efficient [6]. * Water is very cheap, with tap water $0.002/kg in NYC. But shipping via tanker is also very cheap, so you can ship it maybe 1000 km before equaling its cost. It's really impressive that for the price of a winter strawberry, we can ship a strawberry-sized lump of coal around the world 100-400 times. [1] iPhone is $4600/kg, large launches sell for $3500/kg, and rideshares for small satellites $6000/kg. Geostationary orbit is more expensive, so it's okay for them to cost more than an iPhone per kg, but Starlink wants to be cheaper. [2] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU0000711415. Can't find numbers but Antarctica flights cost $1.05/kg in 1996. [3] https://www.bts.gov/content/average-freight-revenue-ton-mile [4] https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities [5] https://www.statista.com/statistics/1232861/tap-water-prices-in-selected-us-cities/ [6] https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Total-unit-shipping-costs-for-dry-bulk-carrier-ships-per-tkm-EUR-tkm-in-2019_tbl3_351748799
Fabien Roger15hΩ6130
0
List sorting does not play well with few-shot mostly doesn't replicate with davinci-002. When using length-10 lists (it crushes length-5 no matter the prompt), I get: * 32-shot, no fancy prompt: ~25% * 0-shot, fancy python prompt: ~60%  * 0-shot, no fancy prompt: ~60% So few-shot hurts, but the fancy prompt does not seem to help. Code here. I'm interested if anyone knows another case where a fancy prompt increases performance more than few-shot prompting, where a fancy prompt is a prompt that does not contain information that a human would use to solve the task. This is because I'm looking for counterexamples to the following conjecture: "fine-tuning on k examples beats fancy prompting, even when fancy prompting beats k-shot prompting" (for a reasonable value of k, e.g. the number of examples it would take a human to understand what is going on).
dirk14h125
2
Sometimes a vague phrasing is not an inaccurate demarkation of a more precise concept, but an accurate demarkation of an imprecise concept

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nim10m20

I've found an interesting "bug" in my cognition: a reluctance to rate subjective experiences on a subjective scale useful for comparing them. When I fuzz this reluctance against many possible rating scales, I find that it seems to arise from the comparison-power itself.

The concrete case is that I've spun up a habit tracker on my phone and I'm trying to build a routine of gathering some trivial subjective-wellbeing and lifestyle-factor data into it. My prototype of this system includes tracking the high and low points of my mood through the day as recalled ... (read more)

Concerns over AI safety and calls for government control over the technology are highly correlated but they should not be.

There are two major forms of AI risk: misuse and misalignment. Misuse risks come from humans using AIs as tools in dangerous ways. Misalignment risks arise if AIs take their own actions at the expense of human interests.

Governments are poor stewards for both types of risk. Misuse regulation is like the regulation of any other technology. There are reasonable rules that the government might set, but omission bias and incentives to protect small but well organized groups at the expense of everyone else will lead to lots of costly ones too. Misalignment regulation is not in the Overton window for any government. Governments do not have strong incentives...

1Amalthea1h
I think the perspective that you're missing regarding 2. is that by building AGI one is taking the chance of non-consensually killing vast amounts of people and their children for some chance of improving one's own longevity. Even if one thinks it's a better deal for them, a key point is that you are making the decision for them by unilaterally building AGI. So in that sense it is quite reasonable to see it as an "evil" action to work towards that outcome.

non-consensually killing vast amounts of people and their children for some chance of improving one's own longevity.

I think this misrepresents the scenario since AGI presumably won't just improve my own longevity: it will presumably improve most people's longevity (assuming it does that at all), in addition to all the other benefits that AGI would provide the world. Also, both potential decisions are "unilateral": if some group forcibly stops AGI development, they're causing everyone else to non-consensually die from old age, by assumption.

I understand you... (read more)

4Daniel Kokotajlo4h
I agree that 0.7% is the number to beat for people who mostly focus on helping present humans and who don't take acausal or simulation argument stuff or cryonics seriously. I think that even if I was much more optimistic about AI alignment, I'd still think that number would be fairly plausibly beaten by a 1-year pause that begins right around the time of AGI.  What are the mechanisms people have given and why are you skeptical of them?
2ryan_greenblatt3h
(Surely cryonics doesn't matter given a realistic action space? Usage of cryonics is extremely rare and I don't think there are plausible (cheap) mechanisms to increase uptake to >1% of population. I agree that simulation arguments and similar considerations maybe imply that "helping current humans" is either incoherant or unimportant.)
1cubefox7h
I agree. This is unfortunately often done in various fields of research where familiar terms are reused as technical terms. For example, in ordinary language "organic" means "of biological origin", while in chemistry "organic" describes a type of carbon compound. Those two definitions mostly coincide on Earth (most such compounds are of biological origin), but when astronomers announce they have found "organic" material on an asteroid this leads to confusion.
2Mitchell_Porter2h
Also astronomers: anything heavier than helium is a "metal". 
2Viliam10h
Specific examples would be nice. Not sure if I understand correctly, but I imagine something like this: You always choose A over B. You have been doing it for such long time that you forgot why. Without reflecting about this directly, it just seems like there probably is a rational reason or something. But recently, either accidentally or by experiment, you chose B... and realized that experiencing B (or expecting to experience B) creates unpleasant emotions. So now you know that the emotions were the real cause of choosing A over B all that time. (This is probably wrong, but hey, people say that the best way to elicit answer is to provide a wrong one.)

Here's an example for you: I used to turn the faucet on while going to the bathroom, thinking it was due simply to having a preference for somewhat-masking the sound of my elimination habits from my housemates, then one day I walked into the bathroom listening to something-or-other via earphones and forgetting to turn the faucet on only to realize about halfway through that apparently I actually didn't much care about such masking, previously being able to hear myself just seemed to trigger some minor anxiety about it I'd failed to recognize, though its ab... (read more)

Post for a somewhat more general audience than the modal LessWrong reader, but gets at my actual thoughts on the topic.

In 2018 OpenAI defeated the world champions of Dota 2, a major esports game. This was hot on the heels of DeepMind’s AlphaGo performance against Lee Sedol in 2016, achieving superhuman Go performance way before anyone thought that might happen. AI benchmarks were being cleared at a pace which felt breathtaking at the time, papers were proudly published, and ML tools like Tensorflow (released in 2015) were coming online. To people already interested in AI, it was an exciting era. To everyone else, the world was unchanged.

Now Saturday Night Live sketches use sober discussions of AI risk as the backdrop for their actual jokes, there are hundreds...

Or to point to a situation where LLMs exhibit unsafe behavior in a realistic usage scenario. We don't say

a problem with discussions of fire safety is that a direct counterargument to "balloon-framed wood buildings are safe" is to tell arsonists the best way that they can be lit on fire

2JustisMills2h
Maybe worth a slight update on how the AI alignment community would respond? Doesn't seem like any of the comments on this post are particularly aggressive. I've noticed an effect where I worry people will call me dumb when I express imperfect or gestural thoughts, but it usually doesn't happen. And if anyone's secretly thinking it, well, that's their business!
6quetzal_rainbow15h
The reason why EY&co were relatively optimistic (p(doom) ~ 50%) before AlphaGo was their assumption "to build intelligence, you need some kind of insight in theory of intelligence". They didn't expect that you can just take sufficiently large approximator, pour data inside, get intelligent behavior and have no idea about why you get intelligent behavior.
3avturchin16h
LLMs now can also self-play in adversarial word games and it increases their performance https://arxiv.org/abs/2404.10642 

This is a linkpost for On Duct Tape and Fence Posts.

Eliezer writes about fence post security. When people think to themselves "in the current system, what's the weakest point?", and then dedicate their resources to shoring up the defenses at that point, not realizing that after the first small improvement in that area, there's likely now a new weakest point somewhere else.

 

Fence post security happens preemptively, when the designers of the system fixate on the most salient aspect(s) and don't consider the rest of the system. But this sort of fixation can also happen in retrospect, in which case it manifest a little differently but has similarly deleterious effects.

Consider a car that starts shaking whenever it's driven. It's uncomfortable, so the owner gets a pillow to put...

3Isaac King3h
In the general case I agree it's not necessarily trivial; e.g. if your program uses the whole range of decimal places to a meaningful degree, or performs calculations that can compound floating point errors up to higher decimal places. (Though I'd argue that in both of those cases pure floating point is probably not the best system to use.) In my case I knew that the intended precision of the input would never be precise enough to overlap with floating point errors, so I could just round anything past the 15th decimal place down to 0.
3faul_sname3h
That makes sense. I think I may have misjudged your post, as I expected that you would classify that kind of approach as a "duct tape" approach.
3Isaac King2h
Hmm, interesting. The exact choice of decimal place at which to cut off the comparison is certainly arbitrary, and that doesn't feel very elegant. My thinking is that within the constraint of using floating point numbers, there fundamentally isn't a perfect solution. Floating point notation changes some numbers into other numbers, so there are always going to be some cases where number comparisons are wrong. What we want to do is define a problem domain and check if floating point will cause problems within that domain; if it doesn't, go for it, if it does, maybe don't use floating point. In this case my fix solves the problem for what I think is the vast majority of the most likely inputs (in particular it solves it for all the inputs that my particular program was going to get), and while it's less fundamental than e.g. using arbitrary-precision arithmetic, it does better on the cost-benefit analysis. (Just like how "completely overhaul our company" addresses things on a more fundamental level than just fixing the structural simulation, but may not be the best fix given resource constraints.) The main purpose of my example was not to argue that my particular approach was the "correct" one, but rather to point out the flaws in the "multiply by an arbitrary constant" approach. I'll edit that line, since I think you're right that it's a little more complicated than I was making it out to be, and "trivial" could be an unfair characterization.

BTW as a concrete note, you may want to sub in 15 - ceil(log10(n)) instead of just "15", which really only matters if you're dealing with numbers above 10 (e.g. 1000 is represented as 0x408F400000000000, while the next float 0x408F400000000001 is 1000.000000000000114, which differs in the 13th decimal place).

Over the last couple of years, mechanistic interpretability has seen substantial progress. Part of this progress has been enabled by the identification of superposition as a key barrier to understanding neural networks (Elhage et al., 2022) and the identification of sparse autoencoders as a solution to superposition (Sharkey et al., 2022Cunningham et al., 2023Bricken et al., 2023). 

From our current vantage point, I think there’s a relatively clear roadmap toward a world where mechanistic interpretability is useful for safety. This post outlines my views on what progress in mechanistic interpretability looks like and what I think is achievable by the field in the next 2+ years. It represents a rough outline of what I plan to work on in the near future.

My thinking and work is, of course,...

We propose a simple fix: Use  instead of , which seems to be a Pareto improvement over  (at least in some real models, though results might be mixed) in terms of the number of features required to achieve a given reconstruction error.

When I was discussing better sparsity penalties with Lawrence, and the fact that I observed some instability in in toy models of super-position, he pointed out that the gradient of norm explodes near zero, meaning that features with "small errors" that cause them to h... (read more)

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So the usual refrain from Zvi and others is that the specter of China beating us to the punch with AGI is not real because limits on compute, etc. I think Zvi has tempered his position on this in light of Meta's promise to release the weights of its 400B+ model. Now there is word that SenseTime just released a model that beats GPT-4 Turbo on various metrics. Of course, maybe Meta chooses not to release its big model, and maybe SenseTime is bluffing--I would point out though that Alibaba's Qwen model seems to do pretty okay in the arena...anyway, my point is that I don't think the "what if China" argument can be dismissed as quickly as some people on here seem to be ready to do.

Summary

  • Context: Sparse Autoencoders (SAEs) reveal interpretable features in the activation spaces of language models. They achieve sparse, interpretable features by minimizing a loss function which includes an  penalty on the SAE hidden layer activations. 
  • Problem & Hypothesis: While the SAE  penalty achieves sparsity, it has been argued that it can also cause SAEs to learn commonly-composed features rather than the “true” features in the underlying data.
  • Experiment: We propose a modified setup of Anthropic’s ReLU Output Toy Model where data vectors are made up of sets of composed features. We study the simplest possible version of this toy model with two hidden dimensions for ease of comparison to many of Anthropic’s visualizations.
...

It's actually worse than what you say -- the first two datasets studied here have privileged basis 45 degrees off from the standard one, which is why the SAEs seem to continue learning the same 45 degree off features. Unpacking this sentence a bit: it turns out that both datasets have principle components 45 degrees off from the basis the authors present as natural, and so as SAE in a sense are trying to capture the principle directions of variation in the activation space, they will also naturally use features 45 degrees off from the "natural" basis. ... (read more)

Hello less wrong community. My name is Myles, and for the last three months I have been working on a collaborative website for solving large and complex problems. The alignment problem is the big problem my website hopes to solve. 

Problem Solving Methodology:

To start from a first principles perspective, we can view problems as essentially goals in which we agents strive to grasp how to complete. Once we have gained a solid understanding of how to complete said goal, we consider the problem solved. Here is an example:

  • Problem: I need milk but don't have it (Goal: acquire milk)
  • Proposed solution: Go to the grocery store and get milk

Even though I haven't necessarily gone out to get milk, I consider this problem to be solved. As in, I don't need...

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