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Bird Concept's 2019 Reviews

Bird Concept's 2019 Nominations

No Nominations Found
Approval Extraction Advertised as Production
Bird Concept5y370Review for 2019 Review

I wrote up a longer, conceptual review. But I also did a brief data collection, which I'll post here as others might like to build on or go through a similar exercise. 

In 2019 YC released a list of their top 100 portfolio companies ranked by valuation and exit size, where applicable.

So I went through the top 50 companies on this list, and gave each company a ranking ranging from -2 for "Very approval-extracting" to 2 for "Very production-oriented".  

To decide on that number, I asked myself questions like "Would growth of this company seem cancero... (read more)

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Being the (Pareto) Best in the World
Bird Concept5y130Review for 2019 Review

I took some liberties in operationalising what seemed to me a core thesis underlying the post. Let me know if you think it doesn't really capture the important stuff!

(You can find a list of all review poll questions here.)

Reply
Make more land
Bird Concept5y130Review for 2019 Review

I'm trying out making some polls about posts for the Review (using the predictions feature). You can answer by hovering over the scale and clicking a number to indicate your agreement with the claim. 

Making more land out of the about 50mi^2 shallow water in the San Francisco Bay, South of the Dumbarton Bridge, would... 

... (read more)
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Book Review: The Secret Of Our Success
Bird Concept5y130Review for 2019 Review

For the Review, I'm experimenting with using the predictions feature to poll users for their opinions about claims made in posts. 

The first two cites Scott almost verbatim, but for the third I tried to specify further. 

Feel free to add your predictions above, and let me know if you have any questions about the experienc... (read more)

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The Forces of Blandness and the Disagreeable Majority
Bird Concept5y*50Review for 2019 Review

I experimented with extracting some of the core claims from this post into polls: 

Personally, I find that answering polls like these make me more of a "quest participant" than a passive reader. They provide a nice "think for yourself" prompt, that then makes me look at the essay with a more active mindset. But others might have different experiences, feel free to provide feedback on how it worked for... (read more)

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Unconscious Economics
Bird Concept5y40Review for 2019 Review

Author here: I think this post could use a bunch of improvements. It spends a bunch of time on tangential things (e.g. the discussion of Inadequacy and why this doesn't come through in textbooks, spending a while initially setting up a view to then tear down). 

But really what would be nice is to have it do a much better job at delivering the core insight. This is currently just done in two bullets + one exercise for the reader. 

Even more important would be to include JenniferRM's comment which adds a core mechanism (something like "cultural learn... (read more)

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Reframing Impact
Bird Concept5yΩ240Review for 2019 Review

Here are prediction questions for the predictions that TurnTrout himself provided in the concluding post of the Reframing Impact sequence. 

... (read more)
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The strategy-stealing assumption
Bird Concept5yΩ240Review for 2019 Review

(You can find a list of all 2019 Review poll questions here.)

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[Answer] Why wasn't science invented in China?
Bird Concept5y40Review for 2019 Review

(You can find a list of all review poll questions here.)

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Bioinfohazards
Bird Concept5y*30Review for 2019 Review

(You can find a list of all 2019 Review poll questions here.)

Reply
The Hard Work of Translation (Buddhism)
Bird Concept5y30Review for 2019 Review

(You can find a list of all review poll questions here.)

Reply
Two explanations for variation in human abilities
Bird Concept5y20Review for 2019 Review

I made some prediction questions for this, and as of January 9th, there interestingly seems to be some disagreement with the author on these. 

Would definitely be curious for some discussion between Matthew and some of the people with low-ish predictions. Or perhaps for Matthew to clarify the argument made on these points, and see if that changes people's minds.

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philh (60%),Oskar Mathiasen (61%),habryka (61%),jimrandomh (65%)
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Benjamin Rachbach (70%),DanielFilan (75%),Ben Pace (75%)
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tenthkrige (80%),Zvi (87%)
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ejacob (90%)
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As of 2019, the US was in an era of unusually large amounts of free speech that elites were starting to get spooked by and defend against.
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The catastrophic convergence conjecture is true. That is, unaligned goals tend to have catastrophe-inducing optimal policies because of power-seeking incentives.
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niplav (72%)
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Some version of Attainable Utility Preservation solves side effect problems for an extremely wide class of real-world tasks and for subhuman agents.
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niplav (67%)
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TurnTrout (85%)
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AUP_conceptual prevents catastrophe, assuming the catastrophic convergence conjecture.
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TurnTrout (75%)
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niplav (90%),ryan_greenblatt (95%)
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Agents trained by powerful RL algorithms on arbitrary reward signals generally try to take over the world.
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Raemon (75%)
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TurnTrout (95%)
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Attainable Utility theory describes how people feel impacted
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Zvi (15%),ChristianKl (15%)
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sapphire (20%),Oskar Mathiasen (20%),Jameson Quinn (23%),jefftk (25%),NunoSempere (25%),cos (25%)
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philh (35%),DanielFilan (35%),Benjamin Rachbach (35%),pepe_prime (35%),MinusGix (35%)
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jimrandomh (40%),Thomas Kwa (45%)
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niplav (63%),core (66%),libero (67%)
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G Wood (90%)
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...create buildings where the expected yearly damage from earthquakes (both in terms of reduced quality of life and property destroyed) is >1.5x that of nearby buildings on old land.
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Noosphere89 (2%)
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pepe_prime (10%),Zvi (11%),Bucky (11%),peterbarnett (13%),Bird Concept (15%),sapphire (15%),tenthkrige (15%),G Wood (15%),Dagon (17%),plex (17%)
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Vivek Hebbar (35%),Garrett Baker (36%),DanielFilan (37%)
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Daniel Kokotajlo (42%)
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libero (64%)
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Polytopos (89%)
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Cultural Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to be able to maintain [complicated, detailed, arbitrary-seeming cultural knowledge like 20+ step Inuit seal hunting techniques]. Everything that separates us from the apes is part of an evolutionary package designed to help us maintain this kind of culture, exploit this kind of culture, or adjust to the new abilities that this kind of culture gave us.
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MinusGix (4%),Jameson Quinn (7%)
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cos (15%)
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niplav (22%),core (24%),jefftk (25%)
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XxX (31%)
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G Wood (40%),pepe_prime (49%)
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jimrandomh (60%),Thomas Kwa (61%),Garrett Baker (61%),Benjamin Rachbach (64%),Zvi (67%)
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NunoSempere (70%),ChristianKl (70%),sapphire (75%),DanielFilan (77%)
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Dagon (80%)
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...significantly worsen traffic in San Francisco.
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Rad Hardman (1%),MinusGix (1%),jimrandomh (5%),Adele Lopez (6%)
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jefftk (10%),G Wood (10%),hath (12%),Zvi (14%),DanielFilan (15%),NunoSempere (15%),ChristianKl (15%),XxX (17%)
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elifland (20%),cos (20%),Sean Hardy (20%),niplav (21%),Thomas Kwa (23%),core (24%),Bird Concept (25%),Vivek Hebbar (25%)
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Oskar Mathiasen (30%),Dagon (30%),pepe_prime (30%),ejacob (30%),Jameson Quinn (35%),libero (37%)
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Benjamin Rachbach (40%),philh (40%)
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Liam Donovan (50%),Garrett Baker (57%)
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...be an environmental disaster.
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sapphire (15%)
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Polytopos (24%),Zvi (29%)
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elifland (30%),Daniel Kokotajlo (31%),niplav (32%),DanielFilan (35%),libero (36%)
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philh (40%),plex (43%)
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Noosphere89 (50%),Bird Concept (50%),Vivek Hebbar (51%),Mary Chernyshenko (52%),XxX (56%)
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tenthkrige (60%),Benjamin Rachbach (60%)
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Dagon (70%),Oskar Mathiasen (70%),ejacob (70%),Liam Donovan (73%),Bucky (74%),Millon Madhur Das (76%),G Wood (77%)
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peterbarnett (85%),Garrett Baker (86%)
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NunoSempere (90%),pepe_prime (90%)
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For most of history, a human attempting to use reasoning to do things like cooking, crafting, or planning (instead of using inherited cultural heuristics, like omens or folk wisdom), would have been substantially worse off, and faced a major increase in their risk of death (without a commensurate increase in life quality).
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philh (70%),jimrandomh (75%),Oskar Mathiasen (75%)
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Dagon (85%),Bird Concept (85%),Polytopos (89%)
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ejacob (90%),G Wood (90%),habryka (92%),sapphire (92%),Zvi (93%),pepe_prime (94%),NunoSempere (95%)
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Decision-makers in media and PR, and corporate and government elites generally, have a lower tolerance for verbal conflict and taboo violations than the typical individual.
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sapphire (15%),Polytopos (16%)
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johnswentworth (20%),Oskar Mathiasen (20%),elifland (25%)
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Morpheus (30%),Benjamin Rachbach (35%)
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philh (40%),NunoSempere (40%),niplav (40%)
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ejacob (55%),DanielFilan (55%),Bird Concept (55%)
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Liam Donovan (64%),Noosphere89 (65%),ozziegooen (66%),libero (66%),peterbarnett (69%)
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Zvi (72%),tenthkrige (75%),Dagon (75%),Bucky (76%)
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pepe_prime (80%),G Wood (80%),plex (83%),Millon Madhur Das (83%)
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XxX (90%),Troy Macedon (95%)
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Machiavellian Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to succeed at social manuevering and climbing dominance hierarchies.
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8%
9%
10%
11%
12%
13%
14%
15%
16%
17%
18%
19%
Adam Zerner (15%),Sherrinford (17%),Alexander (17%)
20%
21%
22%
23%
24%
25%
26%
27%
28%
29%
30%
31%
32%
33%
34%
35%
36%
37%
38%
39%
G Wood (30%)
40%
41%
42%
43%
44%
45%
46%
47%
48%
49%
Oskar Mathiasen (43%)
50%
51%
52%
53%
54%
55%
56%
57%
58%
59%
tenthkrige (50%)
60%
61%
62%
63%
64%
65%
66%
67%
68%
69%
dxu (60%),NunoSempere (60%),TurnTrout (60%),David Varga (60%),Liam Donovan (62%),philh (65%)
70%
71%
72%
73%
74%
75%
76%
77%
78%
79%
ejacob (70%),sapphire (70%),Adam Scholl (72%),Dagon (75%)
80%
81%
82%
83%
84%
85%
86%
87%
88%
89%
ChristianKl (80%),kjz (82%),jimrandomh (85%),XxX (86%),Garrett Baker (87%)
90%
91%
92%
93%
94%
95%
96%
97%
98%
99%
Zvi (90%),Bird Concept (92%),Benjamin Rachbach (95%),pepe_prime (95%)
1%
Does Pareto frontier trick allow people to circumvent the Generalized Efficient Market hypothesis? That is, take people in the 98th percentile of intelligence. Are there a few separate fields such that they could become experts in each, with less than 10 years of total time investment... and then have a realistic shot at a big money/status windfall, with relatively little *marginal* effort.
99%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
11%
12%
13%
14%
15%
16%
17%
18%
19%
20%
21%
22%
23%
24%
25%
26%
27%
28%
29%
30%
31%
32%
33%
34%
35%
36%
37%
38%
39%
40%
41%
42%
43%
44%
45%
46%
47%
48%
49%
50%
51%
52%
53%
54%
55%
56%
57%
58%
59%
niplav (55%)
60%
61%
62%
63%
64%
65%
66%
67%
68%
69%
TurnTrout (65%)
70%
71%
72%
73%
74%
75%
76%
77%
78%
79%
80%
81%
82%
83%
84%
85%
86%
87%
88%
89%
90%
91%
92%
93%
94%
95%
96%
97%
98%
99%
1%
For the superhuman case, penalizing the agent for increasing its own Attainable Utility (AU) is better than penalizing the agent for increasing other AUs.
99%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
pepe_prime (5%)
10%
11%
12%
13%
14%
15%
16%
17%
18%
19%
habryka (10%),Polytopos (14%)
20%
21%
22%
23%
24%
25%
26%
27%
28%
29%
jimrandomh (25%),Zvi (27%)
30%
31%
32%
33%
34%
35%
36%
37%
38%
39%
sapphire (31%)
40%
41%
42%
43%
44%
45%
46%
47%
48%
49%
NunoSempere (40%)
50%
51%
52%
53%
54%
55%
56%
57%
58%
59%
G Wood (50%),Benjamin Rachbach (55%),Bird Concept (59%)
60%
61%
62%
63%
64%
65%
66%
67%
68%
69%
ioannes (60%),Oskar Mathiasen (64%),Parker Conley (65%),ejacob (65%)
70%
71%
72%
73%
74%
75%
76%
77%
78%
79%
80%
81%
82%
83%
84%
85%
86%
87%
88%
89%
90%
91%
92%
93%
94%
95%
96%
97%
98%
99%
1%
The core cognitive loop that causes progress in accomplished Buddhists is basically cognitive behavioral therapy, supercharged with a mental state more intense than most pharmaceuticals.
99%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
Vaniver (1%),ChristianKl (1%),pepe_prime (1%),NunoSempere (1%),sapphire (1%),Dagon (2%),TurnTrout (5%),elifland (5%),Zvi (5%),Vivek Hebbar (5%)
10%
11%
12%
13%
14%
15%
16%
17%
18%
19%
Raemon (13%),Sherrinford (15%),Bird Concept (15%),Oskar Mathiasen (19%)
20%
21%
22%
23%
24%
25%
26%
27%
28%
29%
Garrett Baker (25%),philh (25%),ejacob (25%),tenthkrige (25%)
30%
31%
32%
33%
34%
35%
36%
37%
38%
39%
40%
41%
42%
43%
44%
45%
46%
47%
48%
49%
50%
51%
52%
53%
54%
55%
56%
57%
58%
59%
Benjamin Rachbach (54%)
60%
61%
62%
63%
64%
65%
66%
67%
68%
69%
G Wood (60%)
70%
71%
72%
73%
74%
75%
76%
77%
78%
79%
libero (75%)
80%
81%
82%
83%
84%
85%
86%
87%
88%
89%
90%
91%
92%
93%
94%
95%
96%
97%
98%
99%
Polytopos (93%)
1%
Another version: roughly, everything that top-humans can learn, most humans can too if they actually tried. That is, there is psychological unity of humankind in what we can learn, but not necessarily what we have learned. By contrast, a mouse really couldn't learn chess, even if they tried. And in turn, no human can learn to play 90-dimensional chess, unlike the hypothetical superintelligences that can.
99%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
11%
12%
13%
14%
15%
16%
17%
18%
19%
20%
21%
22%
23%
24%
25%
26%
27%
28%
29%
Dagon (20%),Benjamin Rachbach (23%),pepe_prime (25%),ChristianKl (25%),Zvi (25%),XxX (26%)
30%
31%
32%
33%
34%
35%
36%
37%
38%
39%
NunoSempere (30%),Ben Pace (32%),sapphire (32%),tenthkrige (33%),elifland (33%),Vivek Hebbar (33%),ejacob (35%),philh (35%),Daniel Kokotajlo (36%),habryka (38%),Garrett Baker (38%)
40%
41%
42%
43%
44%
45%
46%
47%
48%
49%
Bird Concept (43%),Bucky (45%)
50%
51%
52%
53%
54%
55%
56%
57%
58%
59%
niplav (51%)
60%
61%
62%
63%
64%
65%
66%
67%
68%
69%
Liam Donovan (60%),Oskar Mathiasen (60%),Mars_Will_Be_Ours (60%),DanielFilan (65%),G Wood (65%)
70%
71%
72%
73%
74%
75%
76%
77%
78%
79%
80%
81%
82%
83%
84%
85%
86%
87%
88%
89%
90%
91%
92%
93%
94%
95%
96%
97%
98%
99%
1%
The modern Scientific Revolution occurred in Europe between the 16th and 18th Centuries. Why did it not happen in China? Historian Toby Huff claims the reason is that China was unable to produce modern science primarily because a lack of the requisite intellectual freedom. Was he basically correct?
99%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
11%
12%
13%
14%
15%
16%
17%
18%
19%
20%
21%
22%
23%
24%
25%
26%
27%
28%
29%
30%
31%
32%
33%
34%
35%
36%
37%
38%
39%
40%
41%
42%
43%
44%
45%
46%
47%
48%
49%
50%
51%
52%
53%
54%
55%
56%
57%
58%
59%
Benjamin Rachbach (53%)
60%
61%
62%
63%
64%
65%
66%
67%
68%
69%
Mary Chernyshenko (60%),tenthkrige (60%)
70%
71%
72%
73%
74%
75%
76%
77%
78%
79%
Oskar Mathiasen (70%),sapphire (75%),philh (75%),ejacob (75%),niplav (79%)
80%
81%
82%
83%
84%
85%
86%
87%
88%
89%
elifland (80%),NunoSempere (85%)
90%
91%
92%
93%
94%
95%
96%
97%
98%
99%
Bird Concept (91%),habryka (92%),libero (93%),Zvi (93%),Spiracular (93%),Dagon (95%),ChristianKl (95%),tragedyofthecomments (96%),Garrett Baker (98%),G Wood (99%),Davidmanheim (99%)
1%
Overall, in 2019, biosecurity in the context of catastrophic risks had been underfunded and underdiscussed.
99%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
11%
12%
13%
14%
15%
16%
17%
18%
19%
20%
21%
22%
23%
24%
25%
26%
27%
28%
29%
niplav (25%)
30%
31%
32%
33%
34%
35%
36%
37%
38%
39%
40%
41%
42%
43%
44%
45%
46%
47%
48%
49%
Garrett Baker (42%),a_g (49%)
50%
51%
52%
53%
54%
55%
56%
57%
58%
59%
ejacob (50%),Davidmanheim (50%)
60%
61%
62%
63%
64%
65%
66%
67%
68%
69%
NunoSempere (60%),hamnox (67%)
70%
71%
72%
73%
74%
75%
76%
77%
78%
79%
elifland (75%)
80%
81%
82%
83%
84%
85%
86%
87%
88%
89%
Ben Pace (82%),ChristianKl (85%),Bird Concept (89%),habryka (89%)
90%
91%
92%
93%
94%
95%
96%
97%
98%
99%
Zvi (90%),sapphire (91%),Benjamin Rachbach (92%),Spiracular (95%),tragedyofthecomments (96%)
1%
The EA community has sometimes erred too much on the side of shutting down discussions of biology by turning them into discussions about info-hazards.
99%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
pepe_prime (5%)
10%
11%
12%
13%
14%
15%
16%
17%
18%
19%
MinusGix (11%),tenthkrige (15%),sapphire (15%),Zvi (17%)
20%
21%
22%
23%
24%
25%
26%
27%
28%
29%
Steven Byrnes (20%),Bird Concept (21%),Daniel Kokotajlo (21%),Lukas Finnveden (21%),particlemania (25%),Dagon (25%),niplav (28%)
30%
31%
32%
33%
34%
35%
36%
37%
38%
39%
G Wood (30%),NunoSempere (30%),Oskar Mathiasen (33%),Benjamin Rachbach (35%)
40%
41%
42%
43%
44%
45%
46%
47%
48%
49%
philh (40%),TurnTrout (45%)
50%
51%
52%
53%
54%
55%
56%
57%
58%
59%
ejacob (50%)
60%
61%
62%
63%
64%
65%
66%
67%
68%
69%
Vivek Hebbar (64%)
70%
71%
72%
73%
74%
75%
76%
77%
78%
79%
XxX (73%),Garrett Baker (74%),Noosphere89 (75%)
80%
81%
82%
83%
84%
85%
86%
87%
88%
89%
90%
91%
92%
93%
94%
95%
96%
97%
98%
99%
1%
The strategy-stealing assumption is "a good enough approximation that we can basically act as if it’s true". That is, for any strategy an unaligned AI could use to influence the long-run future, there is an analogous strategy that a similarly-sized group of humans can use in order to capture a similar amount of flexible influence over the future. By “flexible” is meant that humans can decide later what to do with that influence  (which is important since humans don’t yet know what we want in the long run).
99%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
pepe_prime (1%),sapphire (1%),Vaniver (1%),ChristianKl (2%),elifland (3%),G Wood (5%),Zvi (5%),Dagon (5%),Garrett Baker (5%),NunoSempere (5%),Ben Pace (7%)
10%
11%
12%
13%
14%
15%
16%
17%
18%
19%
ejacob (10%),Vivek Hebbar (11%),Oskar Mathiasen (12%),philh (15%),Richard_Ngo (18%)
20%
21%
22%
23%
24%
25%
26%
27%
28%
29%
Bird Concept (22%),TurnTrout (25%),tenthkrige (25%)
30%
31%
32%
33%
34%
35%
36%
37%
38%
39%
Liam Donovan (36%)
40%
41%
42%
43%
44%
45%
46%
47%
48%
49%
50%
51%
52%
53%
54%
55%
56%
57%
58%
59%
Benjamin Rachbach (55%)
60%
61%
62%
63%
64%
65%
66%
67%
68%
69%
libero (69%)
70%
71%
72%
73%
74%
75%
76%
77%
78%
79%
80%
81%
82%
83%
84%
85%
86%
87%
88%
89%
Polytopos (85%)
90%
91%
92%
93%
94%
95%
96%
97%
98%
99%
1%
Background knowledge and motivation levels being equal, humans will learn how to perform new tasks at roughly equal rates.
99%