It's that time of year again.

If you are reading this post and self-identify as a LWer, then you are the target population for the Less Wrong Census/Survey. Please take it. Doesn't matter if you don't post much. Doesn't matter if you're a lurker. Take the survey.

This year's census contains a "main survey" that should take about ten or fifteen minutes, as well as a bunch of "extra credit questions". You may do the extra credit questions if you want. You may skip all the extra credit questions if you want. They're pretty long and not all of them are very interesting. But it is very important that you not put off doing the survey or not do the survey at all because you're intimidated by the extra credit questions.

It also contains a chance at winning a MONETARY REWARD at the bottom. You do not need to fill in all the extra credit questions to get the MONETARY REWARD, just make an honest stab at as much of the survey as you can.

Please make things easier for my computer and by extension me by reading all the instructions and by answering any text questions in the simplest and most obvious possible way. For example, if it asks you "What language do you speak?" please answer "English" instead of "I speak English" or "It's English" or "English since I live in Canada" or "English (US)" or anything else. This will help me sort responses quickly and easily. Likewise, if a question asks for a number, please answer with a number such as "4", rather than "four".

The planned closing date for the survey is Friday, November 14. Instead of putting the survey off and then forgetting to do it, why not fill it out right now?

Okay! Enough preliminaries! Time to take the...

***


[EDIT: SURVEY CLOSED, DO NOT TAKE!]

***

Thanks to everyone who suggested questions and ideas for the 2014 Less Wrong Census/Survey. I regret I was unable to take all of your suggestions into account, because of some limitations in Google Docs, concern about survey length, and contradictions/duplications among suggestions. The current survey is a mess and requires serious shortening and possibly a hard and fast rule that it will never get longer than it is right now.

By ancient tradition, if you take the survey you may comment saying you have done so here, and people will upvote you and you will get karma.

2014 Less Wrong Census/Survey
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[-]gwern1120

Done. Too bad the basilisk question wasn't on it; I hope that will one day be possible.

5private_messaging
There is no disagreement that only a small percentage of LWers believe in it (just as there's no disagreement that only a small % of scientologists are even aware of the more arcane aspects of their "religion"). But yeah if you had a survey the actual % may be worth listing on RW.
9gwern
The coverage of the basilisk I've seen in the media does not include that, IIRC. Given the widespread mockery of those aspects & their failure to keep it under wraps, I'm not sure how ignorant the rank and file these days really are.
3private_messaging
But then, media is not really focussing on the peripheral aspects of the movement. They're interested in what's being radiated from the core, that's why it is basilisk in the spotlight and not some random insane guy pondering the efficacy of shooting people rather than blowing them up, even though the latter is in principle more outrageous. There's just so many stupid details besides the big concepts like thetans...
1ChristianKl
The census provides a lot of ways to define core and most of them likely would give the answer that the majority of the LW core think differently than Eliezer about the basilisk.
3private_messaging
Media is not writing about you. Or LW. It is writing about that FAI thing for which LW is just an online board that is in and of itself unremarkable.
0ChristianKl
The basilisk isn't a very central idea of that FAI thing. If you define remarkability the way Seth Godin does, LW might be remarkable in this case. I don't know whether FAI is central enough that a journalist get's tasked to do a story about FAI and then finds LW and writes a story about the basilisk. It might very well have been that the journalist heard about LW and then found that it makes a good publishable story. Lastly the article that could be said to be written about me because they write directly about my person are in the context of QS and not FAI.
3Jiro
What counts as a central idea? Does it have to be believed by a majority of the rank and file? Or is it sufficient that it is believed by the leader?
0ChristianKl
Central ideas are those that matter for the discourse about the idea. In academia that means ideas in academic papers. Ideas that are important enough that they get space in textbooks. Given low little academic papers MIRI publishes there might be central ideas that are unpublished and still important but I don't think the basilisk is among them by any reasonable count..
7Jiro
The most important tenet of the Catholic Church is probably something like "Jesus died for our sins". The tenets of the Catholic Church that critics pay the most attention to are their beliefs on abortion, contraceptives, homosexuality, etc. even though they are widely ignored by Catholics and certainly less central than "Jesus died for our sins". Why? Because even though the church would describe them as less important, they are the ones that get non-churchmembers the most worried. And they are consequences of the church's core beliefs, even if not (by church standards) the most important ones. And it's completely legitimate to criticize the church for its stand on abortion, and not criticize it for the matters that the church considers more important. The basilisk is every bit as central to criticsm of LW as abortion is to criticism of Catholicism, even if it's not central to the church and most LWers don't believe it. Most Catholics are fine with abortion too.
0TobyBartels
The Catholic Church spends a great deal of effort trying to influence the secular politics of abortion, with effects on the lives of non-Catholics. This is why non-Catholics criticize it. Less Wrong spends no time at all trying to influence the world at large with respect to Roko's basilisk. It is an amusing episode, but not likely to cause any problems for anybody.
2Jiro
Use the Galileo analogy then. The Pope's belief that Galileo, while right on the facts, shouldn't have challenged the church has pretty much no influence on anyone's lives, but still gets criticism. Also, LW has as its goal influencing the world about rationality and AI, and it seems that LW or at least Eliezer is unable to disentangle the Basilisk from tthe ideas it does want to spread. (Again, Eliezer doesn't believe in the Basilisk exactly as stated, but he does believe Basilisk-like ideas could be dangerous.)
0ChristianKl
If you ask a catholic priest whether the position of the church on abortion is important for him, I think he will say "yes". I you count official speeches and writing by popes I also think that abortion will come up from time to time. We are not talking about criticism of LW. LW as it stands is not important enough in society as a whole to warrant criticism from journalism. We are talking about centrality to FAI under the assumption that it's a topic that journalists want to write about. maybe in the background of Transcendence that raised the topic a bit in public awareness.
2Jiro
It's not an exact analogy, but it's close because it's much more important to outsiders than to insiders. The basilisk isn't directly a LW idea. but the basilisk follows from LW-style ideas and is close enough that Eliezer couldn't just say "nothing like the basilisk could possibly work". A closer analogy may be more like, oh, geocentricism. The church does not believe that geocentricism is true any more than LW believes in the basilisk. On the other hand, the man who became the current Pope has pretty much said that the church was right in its treatment of Galileo even if the church was wrong about geocentricism itself. And you still see this used to criticize the church. And I doubt that many priests would think that the way the church treated Galileo is very important compared to either abortion or Jesus dying for our sins.
1private_messaging
Well, the point is, almost nobody cares about LW and where LW fits in. Few people have some ideas that are interesting due to the sheer ridiculousness, rest of the board is of no interest.
0ChristianKl
If you are dealing with media and the write partly about you, it's quite useful to understand what they do care about in more detail.
4Jiro
Define "believe in the basilisk". Even Eliezer doesn't believe in the basilisk exactly as stated. But he does believe that basilisk-like ideas could be dangerous for basilisk-like reasons.
6private_messaging
There's no such thing as basilisk exactly as stated, because it has never been stated exactly.
3marchdown
It would have been a nice insurance agains possible future PR shitstorms. Was that your primary reason for suggesting it?
0gwern
Yes.
0[anonymous]
Geez, this might be the only issue so contentious that it can attract significant downvotes to a "did the survey" comment. Ironic that an alleged literal-mindkiller would become such a figurative-mindkiller.
[-]Vaniver1070

Did the survey!

I took the survey. Out of curiosity (too late to change now) what should I have answered if I'm not my father's first child, but I'm the first child he had with my mom? (There are kids from my dad's first marriage, but I didn't grow up with them).

I went with "no older siblings" since I assumed this was a question about socialization (or maybe even about uterine environment) but not siring. But I'd like to know for next year.

This should be a warning to us all about how hard it is to frame a good queston.

I would also like to know for next year. I have four older siblings on my father's side, and two on my mother's, and only spent any home time with one (from my mother's side). So, I answered 6 for older, but depending on whether this was a socialization or uterine environment question, the best answer might have been either 1 or 2 for older.

0cameroncowan
I had the same situation. I was the oldest child my father had with my mom although I have siblings that are older that I didn't grow up with. I'm the only child of my step-father (they had no natural children) so I grew up as an old child and that is what I went with.

Taken! The way you were being so apologetic about the length, I thought it would be much more grueling - I found it quick and fun! :)

I completed the survey, huzzah!

Did the survey. Also, now I know my digit ratio!

[-]plex910

Filled in, but did not do digit lengths because I have no access to a printer or scanner in the near future.

Completed the survey (arguably the first thing I've actually contributed to LW, though I've discussed it at some length offline; this is my first comment ever). I have some degree of access to a scanner but not conveniently (same goes for a ruler actually; at best I may have a measuring tape somewhere I could find in under an hour's search). I filled out all the rest, aside from the N/A questions. Some of my answers have very low confidence (calibration percentage?), though.

A tip for those who don't have the equipment to perform the actual test: if you can verify that the lengths of the fingers on your left and right hands are equal (align the crease in the skin at the bases of the same finger on each hand, palm-to-palm), you can use the same technique to compare the D2:D4 lengths (one hand against the other). My fingers are the same length regardless of which hand (to the limit of my ability to measure without mechanical aid), and my D2:D4 ratio is somewhere in the range 1.00 < D2:D4 < 1.05, probably under 1.02 but definitely in excess of 1.00. As a cisgendered male, I guess I'm weird?

Oh, and some feedback: Part Four's "Moral Views" section could have used links (L... (read more)

5Stuart_Armstrong
You should post this as a comment to the original post, not as as a reply to another comment! ;-)
0CBHacking
Thanks! Yeah, I did add a top-level comment, with a link to this one, but I realize that was sort of the backward way to do it.

Done.

I'm a bit confused about the accuracy of my BSRI because my true answer was frequently 'only towards my SO', such that my score would be drastically different were I single.

I'm a bit confused about the accuracy of my BSRI because my true answer was frequently 'only towards my SO',

Same here. And in some cases it was ‘except towards my parents’ or ‘only when I'm very tired’. I still tried to take some kind of weighed average.

4marchdown
This is weird. I haven't noticed that until you've pointed it out, but I believe that my masculinity score was only a little lower than all the benchmarks and not extremely low only because I've considered how my partner would gauge BSRI questions. They seem to push me towards expressing masculine traits. Isn't it interesting that a sex-role inventory doesn't make allowances for situations priming different sex roles in people?
0b_sen
My true answers were also frequently "highly situation-dependent [in assorted ways]." I tried to give a weighted average too, but that weighted average would change significantly with the balance of situational contexts I experience.

Survey complete! I'd have answered the digit ratio question, but I don't have a ruler of all things at home. Ooh, now to go check my answers for the calibration questions.

Took the survey.

And yeah you should warn about the material needed for the digit ratio question in advance, so people don't start the survey if they aren't in the right conditions for it.

I'm done, but my ruler isn't good enough that I'm super confident in my digit ratios; I would have preferred one less significant digit (no pun intended, but I'll take it anyway).

Took the survey. I always feel like I did the last one only recently.

Done - and mildly disappointed that we won't be measuring the prevalence of transponyism this year.

Does this post appear on LW's Main or Discussion pages for anyone else? I only found it via an offsite reference. Edit: Nevermind, I had my Main set to 'Promoted' instead of 'New'.

1timujin
Has that been actually suggested?
3Vaniver
Yes, by the author of the grandparent.

Took the survey.

Taken the survey (would have loved to do digit ratio, but too difficult to get access to the equipment needed).

I did the survey. (Comments on specific aspects appear as replies.)

It's time to decouple sexual orientation from gender identity! If my gender is neither male nor female, but I'm primarily attracted to one of those, then I'm neither homosexual nor heterosexual (nor bisexual nor asexual). But neither am I some nebulous other; if only I had a binary gender identity, then suddenly I would have a binary sexual orientation too! Of course, some people identify specifically as homosexual or heterosexual (and some people even have prima-facie contradictory identifications such as both male and lesbian), and you could ask about that if you like, but you should also ask the more fundamental question of which genders one is attracted to.

9CBHacking
... and that doesn't even get into the sexual-vs.-romantic issue. My girlfriend is cis and bisexual, but only andro-romantic (hetero). She identifies as bi, for purposes of broad categorization such as surveys like this, but has no interest in dating other women even though she is sexually attracted to them. In other words, yes, the better way to ask such a question would be something along the lines of "which gender(s) are you romantically attracted to?" and "which gender(s) are you sexually attracted to?" as different questions.
-4Azathoth123
This strikes me as suspiciously like "she'd straight but identifies as bi because it's fashionable".

Out of curiosity, if I'd avoided mentioning how she self-identifies and had instead told you that "she has had sex with other women before and has asked me if it's OK if she sleeps with other women while we're dating (or brings them home for a threesome)... but has never shown or claimed any interest in actually dating another woman" (all of which is, incidentally, true), what would your response have been? Framed that way, one could assume that she's actually bi or even lesbian and the only reason she's dating me instead of one of those girls is because she wants to avoid the social or family stigma of homosexuality.

Or you could take me at my word. It's not like you're in any position to verify one way or the other, where she in particular is concerned, unless you're one of the handful of people who actually know who I am speaking of and know her preferences at least as well as I do.

It also doesn't matter for the point I raised (about how some people have different targets for sexual and romantic attraction) unless you intended to imply that not only is she personally actually neatly classifiable under the existing system but so is everybody else who would claim otherwis... (read more)

9gjm
What would you expect it to look like if in fact she found both men and woman sexually attractive but only men romantically attractive, as she claims?
6Gunnar_Zarncke
See also the OKCupid Trends post about The Big Lies People Tell In Online Dating.
4CBHacking
That's a valid point. On the other hand, as a dating site, OKC messaging is probably going to be skewed towards the gender that one is interested in pursuing a relationship with (though maybe that's just the way I use it; as soon as I typed it I felt sure there were plenty of people just looking to hook up). When the topic is sexual orientation vs. romantic orientation, I'm not sure that OKC is the best source of data. I can't deny the specific claim that a large proportion of ostensibly bi people appear to not be both bisexual and biromantic.
8TobyBartels
The questions Family Religion and Religious Background seem to parallel the questions Religious Views and Religious Denomination, but they are phrased differently. The first is my family when I was growing up, while the second is simply my family. So as it happened, I was not thinking of the same families when answering them! Perhaps I should have paid more attention the name of the question Religious Background, which I really only noticed just now when I wanted to identify it for this comment. You did not in fact get information about my religious background in my answer to that question; you got information about the religious background of my spouse of less than 2 years (and my stepchild).
8TobyBartels
So I filled out the whole survey, and then I got to the part about the digit ratio, and I thought, OK, I'll do this! But I can't do it now (no photocopier at home, can't trust a measurement to 3 digits if I'm not doing it the same way as others). And I can't keep my answers up until I can do it (no battery in computer, must be turned off to transport, Lazarus plug-in has been problematic). So I put in a public and private key but no data. I will gladly supply the data to you tomorrow, using those keys to identify my survey.
7TobyBartels
Some countries hold elections but not major national ones; and sometimes a country has elections, but most people in them still can't vote. (Examples are Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, respectively.)
6TobyBartels
I'd be much more comfortable answering the probability sections if I knew what epsilon is. I usually say 0% when the value is less than 0.5% and 100% when the value is greater than 99.5%, rounding to the nearest whole percentage, on the grounds that the whole point of using percentages is to avoid explicit fractions (common or decimal). But then you ruin this by explicitly mentioning 0.5% and 99.99% as possible answers. If you had put a hard limit on the number of digits allowed, then I could have used that. In the end, since I saw no consistent guidance, I fell back on my usual practice. The result is that I had a lot of 0s and 100s; hopefully that won't mess up your algorithms. ETA: It is probably relevant here that I am a naturally lazy person.
4Sarunas
I think it might have been better to ask people to estimate what are the odds that a given statement is true. If a probability of a statement is close to zero or close to one, it gives us better precision without having to worry about digits after the decimal point (however, if a probability is close to one half, it is probably better to ask for a probability). Although it is easy to convert odds to probabilities, how many people in this survey actually took the mental effort to remind themselves to calculate the odds first and only then to express them as probabilities? I might be wrong, but I guess that only a minority. An idea for the next year survey - it might be interesting to compare the answers of two groups, one of which would be asked to estimate probabilities, the other one to estimate the odds.
2Elund
Are you using "odds" to refer to percentages and "probabilities" to refer to fractions? I don't think there is actually any difference in meaning between the two terms.
2TobyBartels
Colloquial language doesn't make this distinction, but by technical convention, they are different. Specifically, ‘odds’ refers to expressions like ‘5 to 3 against’; numerically, that's the fraction 5/3, or rather (because of the ‘against’) its reciprocal, 3/5. Thus odds run from 0 (impossible) to infinity (certain), with odds of 1 being perfectly balanced between Yes and No. In contrast, probabilities run only from 0 to 1. An event with odds of 5 to 3 against, or equivalently odds of 3/5, has a probability of 3/(3+5) = 3/8. So the numbers are different. The conversion formulas are O = P/(1 − P) and P = O/(1 + O). Then there are log-odds; this is log₂ O bits. (You can also use other bases than 2 and correspondingly other units than bits.) Now 0 indicates perfect balance between Yes and No; a positive number means more likely Yes than No, and a negative number means less likely Yes than No. Log-odds run from negative infinity (impossible) to infinity (certain).
2Elund
Oh right, I forgot about that definition. The main probability conversions that I was aware of involved converting between fractions and percentages, sometimes expressed instead as probabilities between 0 and 1. Theoretically, it makes sense that odds can also be converted to or from probabilities, now that I think about it. Thanks for your explanation.
-5VAuroch
1TobyBartels
Yes, odds are good (and log-odds are even better), but people are bad at both dealing with very large absolute values and dealing with very fine precisions. I think that the survey is correct to put in a cut-off (whether an ϵ for probabilities, an N for log-odds, or one of each for odds); it should just tell us where. (Edit: put in stuff about log-odds properly.)
3NancyLebovitz
Epsilon is a minuscule amount. It's vanishingly small, but it's still there.
5TobyBartels
Yes, but which minuscule amount? To be more specific: If ϵ ≥ 5 × 10⁻ⁿ (which it must be for some n, if it is a positive real number), then I only need to figure out my probability to n + 1 digits. Upon doing so, if it's all 0s, then my probability is no more than ϵ, so I can enter 0. Otherwise, I should enter something larger. (And a similar thing holds on the other end.) Specifying ϵ serves the practical purpose of telling us how much work to put into estimating our probabilities. Since I had no guideline for that, I chose to default to ϵ = 1/2 (in percentage points), rather than try to additionally work out how small ϵ was supposed to be. If, instead of bringing up ϵ, the survey had instructed us to use as many decimals as we need to avoid ever answering either 0 or 100, then I probably would have done more work. (There are reasons why this is bad, since the results will be increasingly unreliable, but still it could have said that.) But since I knew that at some point my work would be ignored, I didn't do any. (Edits: minor grammar and precise phrasing of inequalities.)
1CBHacking
I took epsilon to be simply 0.5, on the basis of "the survey can take decimals but I'm going to use whole numbers as suggested, so 0 means I rounded down anything less than 0.5". This is imprecise but gives me greater confidence in my answers, and (as you say), I have some tendency towards laziness.
0TobyBartels
Yes, that's what I did too (0.5%).
0Elund
I don't think it will mess up the algorithms. My guess is that most people probably rounded most calibration answers to the tens place due to lack of enough confidence to be more precise, but since people are giving different values, the average across all respondents is unlikely to fall on an increment of ten, and should be a reasonably accurate measure of the respondents' collective assigned probability for a question.
0TobyBartels
It could mess them up, because in theory a single wrong answer with 100% confidence renders the entire series infinitely poorly calibrated. The survey says that this won't be done, that 100% will be treated as something slightly less than that. But how much less could depend on assumptions that the survey-makers made about how often people would answer this way, and maybe I did it too much. I doubt it, since I'm pretty sure that they know enough about these pitfalls to avoid them. But I felt that I answered 0 and 100 quite a lot, so I thought that some warning was in order.
0Vulture
Even though percentages are typically used for cases where precision is less important, I'd say that in this context it would be better to err on the side of precision.
5TobyBartels
I don't fit in well with any of the 5 answers to the Political question, and there was no Other, but skipping it also didn't seem right. (Several questions have explicit cases when they are to be skipped, but this was not one of them.) I eventually picked 1 of the 2 that seemed less wrong than the other 3; I would have preferred to pick some sort of non-moderated mixture of those 2. (Actually, that is how I usually describe my politics when asked for a response in the form of a political party: somewhere between the ___ Party and the ___ Party, only more extreme.) The Complex Affiliation was not a problem. (Actually, I was still torn between 2 answers, but this time I would have been happy with either of them!)
4TobyBartels
My public key is the same as my user name. Should it have been anonymous? (My private key was randomized and only identifies me if you know what format I use for general-purpose random strings.)
4Vaniver
Assuming Yvain does the same thing as last year, both the public and private key will be released as part of the survey dataset if you checked the 'release my survey data' box.
7dthunt
Faith in Humanity moment: LW will not submit garbage poll responses using other LW-users as public keys.
2jdgalt
If that's true I wish I'd known it before choosing keys.
0TobyBartels
The private key too!? Fortunately I used a one-time key for that. The public key is OK. I made sure that I was comfortable with people linking my answers to me before I used it. But then I thought that maybe I wasn't supposed to.
3TobyBartels
I hope that you'll publish the answers to the calibration questions, after the survey closes, of course.

I finished the survey.

[-]Ixiel800

Taken! Thanks as always for running it

Except for the digit lengths, survey taken!

[-]Ronak750

I took it. If it's anything like last year, officially 2/5 of my karma will be from surveys.

[-][anonymous]750

Took the survey. My first one. Thanks for putting it together Yvain/Dan.

I took the survey. Started on the BSRI but abandoned it because I found the process of giving vague answers to vague questions distressing.

I'm missing something here, I filled in the public and private and keys, but saw no game theory problem. Are we being given equal chances of the monetary reward?

Anyway, fun survey.

4Vulture
Presumably. The idea is to incentivize participation in the more difficult digit-ratio section. (Although, of course, that does create a game-theory problem...)

Done.

Didn't have a scanner, so I traced my hand on a piece of paper with a pencil and measured that. Not sure I got enough accuracy to take seriously. Oh, well.

6therufs
Given the ambiguity of the directions, you're probably as close as anyone else.
1atorm
I'm confident you didn't.
[-]gjm720

About two hours ago, I submitted an incomplete census return -- it looks as if some keystroke produces an immediate submission, at least on my browser. I'll be submitting a complete one later today. Yvain, if you want to suppress the incomplete one and need help in identifying it then I can help. I was partway through the calibration questions when I accidentally submitted.

(I see TrE had the same problem.)

[EDITED to add: Complete return now submitted.]

Did it! I'm shocked that my digit ratio is so high. Like, I figured that it was pretty high, being a bisexual genderfluid "man" (assigned at birth, that is), but I didn't expect it to be greater than 1. Also, it was much shorter than I expected.

Taken. Wasn't bothered by the length -- could be even longer next time.

I exist in a quantifiable way! (I took the survey)

Done.

I think it is somewhat unrealistic to expect individual digit ratios to be accurate to three significant figures (although I understand that two significant figures might be too crude a measure to show effects of smaller size). One can hope that the errors are symmetric and it doesn't matter.

3dthunt
I don't think it's going to matter very much. 3 digits after the dot, with the understanding that the third digit is probably not very good, but the second probably is pretty good.

Suppose the actual length of a person's index finger is 80.5 mm and the actual length of his/her ring finger is 83.5 mm. Then the 2D:4D ratio is 0.964. A measurement error of 0.5 mm is very easy to make, e.g. due to inaccuracy of a photocopier, inaccuracy of a ruler, inexactness of where a finger joins the hand (and even if it wasn't a vague concept it would still be a problem to pinpoint the precise location of it with a great accuracy) and even differences in muscle tension in fingers at the particular moment of placing a hand in a photocopier. If a person measures his/her index finger as being 80 mm long (0.5 mm shorter) and her/his ring finger as being 84 mm long (0.5 mm longer), then they would obtain 2D:4D ratio of 0.952. Whereas if the length of the index finger is measured to be 81 mm, and the length of the ring finger is 83 mm, then 2D:4D ratio is 0.976. Therefore, the first digit after the decimal point does not vary that much (in the vast majority of all cases it is 9), the third one is basically noise, and even the second one is not that reliable (in an individual case). However, that might still be enough to notice some interesting correlations and if the errors are symmetric it might not even matter that much when all data will be aggregated.

3Gunnar_Zarncke
For me its not even the second digit. Even left and right hand differ significantly. Copire doesn't make things really better (OK, the copier quality was low, much too dark).
0Elund
Agreed. Most rulers don't give measurements more precise than millimeters.
0Alsadius
This is why a scanner might make sense. Even 300 DPI is less than 0.1mm resolution, so just scan it in and measure with an electronic ruler in your image-editing software of choice.
8Richard_Kennaway
There's no point in measuring something more precisely than the thing itself exists. Which pixel "is" the base of the finger? Has anyone tried repeating the measurement, following the same procedure each time? Do this on occasions at least a day apart, to avoid unconsciously imitating the second time exactly what you did the first time. I have. Reproducibility was no better than 1mm, and pretty much independent between fingers. You could also try under different conditions, e.g. when your hands are cold and when they're warm, when you've just been exerting them heavily and when you haven't, etc. I doubt that digit ratio exists as an entity to better than 1 or 2% accuracy.
0Alsadius
I suspect it does, but you need to be a lot more precise with your instructions than Yvain was in this case.

Completed. Very excited to see the digit ratio data.

[-]MrMind690

I did the survey in all its parts, and upvoted every top level comment to promote LW's census partecipation.

It was fun and not particularly long, although I miss the 'global prisoner dilemma' of the last survey.

I completed the survey (and learned surprising things about my digit ratio)

[-][anonymous]680

I took the survey! This is my third survey.

Answered. WRT Type of Global Catastrophic Risk, I answered conditioned on greater than 90% of humanity being wiped out before 2100, which I assume is what you meant. If it wasn't, well, I ruined everything, then.

4jdgalt
I wondered about that too, but for me "wiping out civilization" includes the possibility that some disaster leaves half of humanity alive, but smashes all our tech, knocking us back to the stone age. Intelligence forbid!

Answered all I could except the digit one because of no access to scanner. Looking forward to the results!

[-]Calien670

In-group fuzzes acquired, for science!

[-]Markas670

Completed!

I took it. A bit sad that it's shorter than the last one.

6roystgnr
I took it. A bit happy that it's shorter than the last one. Last time I didn't find time to do any of the optional questions, but this time I did all but a couple.

Done. Fairly high confidence that I'm still the lone Filipino LessWronger.

[-]V_V660

Done

Survey done, awesome as usual, Yvain. Can't wait for the results.

Survey finished- erred on the side of not screwing up Yvain's numbers where possible, but I'm curious what the ideal way to mark down Religious Background for results of families that divorced over religious disagreement is. Also had a really strong desire (thwarted, but present) to put a SQL injection into the question about whether the universe is a simulation, which is a bad idea no matter what the answer turns out to be or whether I could conceivably affect the simulation. It's like a pascal's wager mixed with a Russian roulette, only the gun is fully loaded. Either I screw up the numbers, I tank the survey, or I crash the simulation. Dear brain, we were reading about akrasia just recently, were you paying attention?

Why would the universe be particularly likely to run an SQL statement in a form question about whether the universe is a simulation? All you have to do is think the attack and

NO CARRIER

0jdgalt
Somehow this made me think of Larry Niven's "Rotating Cylinders and the Possibility of Global Causality Violation".

Just completed my first survey!

Did the survey!

Took it.

EDIT: I was surprised to find the BEM test in it. I took it some time ago and it resulted in 65-70% F and 50-60% M (as far as I can see largely because of my strong and caring relationship to my children).

I didn't determine my digit-ratio during the test but did right now. I arrive at totally different values (between 0.91 and 1.05) depending and hand and exact points and the copier print reading gives still different values. My best guess is that it is somewhere around 0.96.

9Elund
I think you're supposed to measure from the middle of the bottom crease to the middle of the tip. Also, since the bottom crease itself can be about a millimeter or two wide, I measured from the middle of that crease by its width in addition to its length. When I do that I get consistent results even on repeated measurements.
0Gunnar_Zarncke
Sure. If I pick the same spot I get the same results. Esp. with a photocopy. But at least the significant difference between left and right hand remains. Even when photocopying it makes a difference how strong you press your hand against the plate and how much contrast the scan has (for me it was too dark to make out the creases clearly).
6Vaniver
It is common for them to be different; that's why the survey asks for each hand separately. Inter-rater reliability (given the same scan) for this measurement is in the r=.9 range, if I remember correctly, so don't feel that bad about it being variable; the underlying quantity is actually difficult to measure (but meaningful nonetheless).
3Gunnar_Zarncke
I don't doubt that the measure is meaningful. The influence is surely real. The question is rather whether anything meaningful can be derived on the individual level.
2Elund
Maybe the corresponding fingers on your other hand really are different in length. Mine are. Whenever I press my fingers against each other such as to line up their bottom creases (keeping the orientation of the fingers as straight as possible), the middle and upper creases and fingertips don't line up. My right fingers are slightly shorter. Good point about the photocopier. Hopefully these issues won't add too much noise to the results and obscure any significant results.

Survey taken!

[-]Neo640

Taken!

[-][anonymous]640

I did the survey.

[-]zedzed640

I hope you don't count fanfiction as "books", because otherwise my response is off by at least two bullet points.

Done!

I took the survey.

[-]Rubix630

Survey surveilled!

[-]gjm170

Nope. You've been surveilled, by the survey.

7Vulture
I think you've been surveyed, rather. (Although undoubtedly surveilled as well, given the current political climate...)
8TobyBartels
Well, in all fairness, Rubix presumably did also survey the survey. And hopefully perused it as well, maybe even filled it out!

Tooken. My scanner was being evil today so I only had low-res overview scans, and could only get to within a tenth of a centimeter, but I think my results are dramatic enough that it's not wildly incorrect to use my guess? Drop me if I'm wrong, I should be easy to pick out of the crowd via karma.

Done! Wish I had had a scanner handy going in, I'm curious about the digit ratio.

0Elund
I think it should be fine to just hold a ruler up to your finger. The only potential problem might be that the highest tip of your finger wouldn't actually touch the ruler, but if you don't want to estimate by sight you can hold another flat surface perpendicular to it to see where that touches the ruler. I get consistent measurements this way.

Completed.

Can anyone explain the Bem Sex Roles thing and why its relevant? I scored slightly more masculine and less feminine then average which confused me slightly. Its all self reporting though so I'm not sure how much it will express m nature vs what I value (like to think about myself)

Done, though sadly without the digit ratio due to lack of equipment. I'm a newbie and I just thought that was really cool.

I did the survey! This is the second time I've completed an iteration of this survey, but this year was the first time I answered all the questions. I also did all the extra credit except for the digit ratio question.

[-]kalium620

Took the survey.

Finished the survey. Didn't answer the SSC question even though I read it regularly because I plan to take the edited version when it's posted there, and I also didn't answer the digit ratio question.

Did it, that was fun! Can't wait for the results.

[-]Gvaerg620

Did the survey! I think i gave highly contradictory answers.

Survey done, including digit ratio. And I learned something new.

But not particularly confident in the accuracy of my measurement.

Took the survey, except for the digit ratio part.

[-][anonymous]620

Finished.

[This comment is no longer endorsed by its author]Reply

The entire community is extremely insular and is weighed down with it's own established ideas. Most of the writers speak with total conviction, absolutely convinced of their own conclusions, despite the entire point of the endeavor being the pursuit of ever increasing amounts of correctness, thus making them 'less wrong'.

It consists mostly of extremely narrow demographics, cutting it's objectivity off at the knees by creating a culture that is perfect for serving as echo chambers despite their criticism of one another. It has also engaged in censorship of ideas, something that CANNOT be allowed in a group that is trying to further rational thought.

Aside from that there is also the personality cult surrounding Eliezer Yudkowsky. Objectivity is impossible if people weight the merit of your arguments by your popularity, which is inevitable in such a situation.

[-][anonymous]620

Took the survey. Skipped the digit ratio - I could have done it but didn't feel like walking to the copier or finding a ruler.

Next year I want to see an independent measure of conscientiousness, and compare this between people who bother to answer the digit ratio question and those who don't...

0othercriteria
The conscientiousness/akrasia interactions are also fascinating, but even harder to measure. There's a serious missing-not-at-random censoring effect going on for people too conscientious to leave off digit ratio but too akrasic to do the measurement. I nearly fell into this bucket.

Completed.